Appreciate everyone jumping in, let me actually go through these because you all hit different parts of it.
getting mentioned by pages google already trusts for the query seems safer
This is basically the whole thing in one line. "Different selection layer" is exactly it, the crawl and rank work gets you eligible, but getting picked is a separate decision on top. And earning the mention on a page Google already trusts is the durable version. Manufacturing it is the fragile one.
AI citations are recommendations is unlike search
The no-monopoly point is underrated. It isn't one SERP anymore, it's ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity and Overviews all picking independently. That cuts both ways though: more surfaces to get pulled into, but also more places a gamed citation gets discounted the second any one of them tightens the screws.
buying listing guest posts and creating links on a websites that Google rank in its AIO
This works right up until it doesn't. A mention on a page Google already pulls into AIO can ride you into the answer short term, no argument. But that's the exact pattern they just folded into the link spam policy, you're manufacturing the citation instead of being the thing worth citing. When they retune it, and they will, the bought mentions are first to get discounted.
pages that barely ranking but somehow still getting pulled into AI Overviews consistently
Yeah, and it's the most telling part. The pages I see getting pulled aren't the highest-DR ones, they're the ones with a clean extractable answer sitting right there: a table, a straight definition, a number in context. I've got a low-DR e-juice store (DR 21, ranks nowhere near page one for half its terms) whose comparison pages still get quoted into overviews well above their weight, purely because the answer is a clean lift. Authority gets you crawled. Being quotable gets you cited.
still basically SEO, just showing up in a new surface
Half with you. The plumbing is 100% SEO, index it, make it trustworthy, none of that changed. But "new surface" undersells the selection bit: a page can rank fine and still never get quoted because there's no clean line to lift out of it. That part is genuinely new, and it's where I'm spending my testing time.
feels more like building authority than chasing rankings
Yeah, with one tweak: it's less raw authority and more trusted AND quotable. Plenty of high-authority pages never get pulled because they bury the answer in 1,500 words of throat-clearing. Authority gets you considered. Being liftable gets you used.
Net for me: I've stopped treating position as the only scoreboard. With zero-click sitting where it is, "how often are we the one getting quoted" is the number I actually watch now, and so far it tracks usefulness a lot more than it tracks authority.