[Journey] Polymarket EDGE? 20k a month.

reikano_pred · Jun 15, 2025

Hey.
Software engineer, been in the crypto market since 2021. Made some money in NFT boom with automated systems, sniper bots..

I’ve built a bunch of interesting models predicting Bitcoin price. Recently discovered Polymarket betting.

I THINK I HAVE an EDGE in forecasting BTC 1h moves — whether it goes up or down.

My goals:

Build an automated betting system for when I have an edge.
Build an automated MM system to fill the order book with better prices than current market makers.
Update and maintain a robust dashboard tracking equity curve.
Create models to predict ETH price and BTC daily up/down moves.
Find people who are crypto enthusiasts who enjoy markets, data, and betting.

I’ll be doing daily updates on my bets.

Attaching current stats and my little dashboard. Started betting 1 week back.

NOT SELLING ANYTHING! Just sharing my run

RoyRoyan · Jun 16, 2025

So interesting! Good luck!
I don't believe in technical analysis and predictions though

india · Jun 16, 2025

What do you consider most reliable signal?

RoyRoyan · Jun 16, 2025

india said:
What do you consider most reliable signal?

tarot cards

and have you tried backtesting your algorithms?

reikano_pred · Jun 16, 2025

RoyRoyan said:
tarot cards
and have you tried backtesting your algorithms?

Sure I have done it.
Statistics is statistics, but nobody knows what will happen in the future.

india said:
What do you consider most reliable signal?

I have various signals.
More reliable signals I am entering via market order for 51cent UP or DOWN prediction.
With less win rate signals I am setting limit order at 50cents, hoping somebody will fill it up.

Reliable signal is precision above 56-57% for me.
On average 3-4 signals per day. Depends on the market and the month.

Nate Holl · Jun 17, 2025

Really cool angle you're taking with this—haven’t seen many dive into Polymarket like that. The mix of automation and data-driven betting sounds promising, especially with your crypto background. Definitely curious to see how it plays out over time.

SeoDesignFusion · Jun 17, 2025

Hello bro!
Nice bro, great cool! Hope your system work well, keep us posted
Thanks!

Spicy Chromosomes · Jun 17, 2025

Interesting, let's see you can keep predicting it in the long term, good luck with your journey

Rank Crafter · Jun 20, 2025

This is super interesting love the systematic approach you're taking, especially combining forecasting models with automated execution. Polymarket’s still a bit under the radar, so spotting an edge there early could really pay off.

reikano_pred · Jun 20, 2025

Hey everyone, quick update:

I’ve set up automated order placement — it’s currently running a few minutes before each round.
Been doing a bunch of manual trades lately, but the win rate was lower and variance hit me pretty hard
Backtested ETH predictions and it looks like there’s a solid edge there too.
My high-confidence predictions are performing really well (screenshot attached).
Also revamped my personal prediction dashboard.

Next steps:

No more manual betting — switching fully to auto.
Planning to build a system for small-size market-making. In most cases, I can offer better prices than the current market maker on Polymarket’s 1h predictions.
Thinking of sharing my dashboard with a small group of people who are doing similar stuff. What’s cool is that these strategies seem profitable beyond just Polymarket, but I really like how Polymarket works — super clear on risk and reward, which keeps things mentally easier.
I’ll start posting every bet I make here, probably every 2–3 days.

Random thought:

If this keeps going well, I might just bankrupt the current market maker haha

I have started looking at polymarket 2 weeks ago, betting probably around 10 days ago. So far profit 4k$+

Cheers

Gerald2000 · Jun 23, 2025

This is very cool. I'm new to this and am currently in the process of making a tool that can spot arbitrage opportunities within polymarket. Though I'm not sure this is even viable since this strategy is highly competitive.

reikano_pred · Jun 23, 2025

Gerald2000 said:
This is very cool. I'm new to this and am currently in the process of making a tool that can spot arbitrage opportunities within polymarket. Though I'm not sure this is even viable since this strategy is highly competitive.

Not an easy task if I understand what you mean correctly, Could you explain what you mean by spot arbitrage opportunities within polymarket?

LinkZenith · Jun 23, 2025

Nice work
Excited to see how your journey goes
keep us posted!

Gerald2000 · Jun 23, 2025

reikano_pred said:
Not an easy task if I understand what you mean correctly, Could you explain what you mean by spot arbitrage opportunities within polymarket?

at first I thought about making a tool that spots price discrepancies between political candidates at an election. for example, I assumed every once in awhile I'd be able to buy NO shares against every candidate for a total price cheaper than the guaranteed payout received once all but one lose, I quickly determined that this may work on "Predictit" where there's less competition and a fee has to be accounted for, But on polymarket this is basically impossible. Its a much more efficient market.
It might be a waste of time but building a tool to analyze the market will help me learn about the API.

where there is an opportunity to make money is in situations like this

the prices more often then not normalize in such a way that the higher numbers get placed on top, and often do so at a relatively slow rate, In this situation the 84% goes down. not arbitrage, but might be worth looking into.

Tony Soprano · Jun 23, 2025

wich you the best of luck, did some manual btc 1h predictions and got 3 out of 4. then switched to politics and made some money. turned 50 bucks to 800 in 48h, but i didnt sleep at all lol

achiever2011 · Jun 23, 2025

All the best for the journey.

reikano_pred · Jun 24, 2025

Tony Soprano said:
wich you the best of luck, did some manual btc 1h predictions and got 3 out of 4. then switched to politics and made some money. turned 50 bucks to 800 in 48h, but i didnt sleep at all lol View attachment 453703

Congratulations on profits. Please be aware gambling is very very dangerous. Maybe on politics you might have some real edge

Always be aware that you are betting against somebody who might know more than you. Ofcourse polymarket is great that you are betting against people, not necessarily against house which makes a huge difference.

Some updates:

- Running ETH predictions so far they are not running as good

- BTC predictions running very well, markets been volatile, ups downs, geopolitical storms, but ML navigated it fairly well.
- Running some backtests on XRP predictions, looks like I have an edge there too, I gonna bet there too, but less amount.

What I enjoy clear risk to reward!

Results:

- BTC predictions 36bets, 23 wins, 13 loss. Running HOT!
- ETH predictions 14 bets, 5 win, 9 loss. (maybe it will start running better)

First bet made June 9, at the moment June 24th. 10k profit.
Good luck guys

Gerald2000 · Jun 25, 2025

@reikano_pred I'm curious as to how you scale your bets? is it a set percentage of your portfolio?

reikano_pred · Jun 25, 2025

Gerald2000 said:
@reikano_pred I'm curious as to how you scale your bets? is it a set percentage of your portfolio?

At the moment I am betting fixed size, problem is liquidity. I am planning to start betting by the:

Kelly criterion

Short update:

- Very successful few days
- Total profit above 13k
- BTC predictions works very well, ETH predictions struggling so far.
- Current Market Maker starts to feel a little pain and cries in the comment section, he hasn't lost as much against me... yet...
- Hopefully these MM will stop Market Making, then I will try to step-in with more sophisticated MM strategy.

Good luck guys

reikano_pred · Jul 2, 2025

Hello everyone,

I hope you’re all doing well.

June Performance

Achieved approximately $13,000 in profit.
200 bets.

25% of the profits I take for my self, 25% for updating the project, create UI, website. 50% stack into my portfolio.

Challenges

Market makers have largely withdrawn, making it difficult to execute limit orders.
High-confidence bets are performing very well, but lower-confidence positions are underperforming.

Goals for July

Develop and launch a public prediction dashboard. I’m looking for front-end developers interested in collaborating (this is a paid opportunity, not for course credit).
Continue refining our machine-learning models—I’ve already built a new one that’s delivering outstanding results.
Implement daily up/down betting strategies, as there still appears to be mispricing opportunities.

Thanks!

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