I am having a pretty good recovery from Fred. Hoping someone can relate my recovery to their site, I am sharing it.
My website has about 750 articles (1000 words in average) and was generating about 3000-5000 views a day from Google and a lot of keywords were on top 10. The backlinks were all strong and I never did comment/forum links. Links were all high-quality auction PBN domains, guest posts and links acquired using skyscraper technique.
The main issue was that a competitor had done negative SEO (spam comments and forum links) to the home page of my site. Negative SEO started on Dec, 2016 and continued ever since. But I never really noticed any rank decrement due to negative SEO and was just disavowing the links that I could see using tools like Ahrefs, Majestic.
One major thing to note is that the spammy links were all pointing to the home page and not a single one was pointing to any internal pages. The anchor texts of sites were thus spammed to hell due to the negative SEO and guess what, Fred hit and my views went down from 5000 to 1750 per day. 65% traffic reduction!
On March 24, I 301 redirected my website to a new domain. I didn't redirect home page of the old domain to the new one as the older home page has spammy links pointing to it. I also made sure that all internal pages are correctly redirecting to the new domain's internal pages and also, marked 'site address change' in Webmaster Tools.
By not redirecting the home page, I successfully managed to reduce the negative SEO effects, I think. It's only a matter of time before Google confirms that my new domain no longer has all those spammy links pointing at it and I assume that's what's helping me right now.
A week later, by April first week, I started to see ranks coming back. Some keywords were pulled down from the first page to 200-300 range and they started to show up in 5-15 again. Each day things were getting better and also, I was capable of having a closer look as I am tracking about 355 keywords (of 355 articles out of 750) in SerpLab. As the site is pretty huge, the transition to the new site is still not over (not even 50% done). So, I am 100% sure things will improve a lot again and I will be where I was a month later or even better.
Now more information regarding my site,
- It has zero internal links and yet, it's recovering, which implies that not having internal links is not a reason for getting hit by Fred.
- I checked the rankings of all articles where an external link is pointing. I have noticed that articles with a higher keyword anchor text ratio took huge fall in the likes of 10 -> 250. Whereas, pages with generic anchor texts took only a small fall in the likes of 5 -> 10, which actually happened site wide to even pages without any links pointing to it.
- Negative SEO campaigner was using naked URL anchor text "mydomain.com" as a major anchor text. After Fred, even a few pages which had legit links with same anchor text "mydomain.com" took gigantic falls to 200-300 range in Google. Pages with other generic or naked URL anchor texts didn't get hit that much. So, if you have keyword rich anchor text for your site or if one anchor text is very predominant, that could be one of the major cause.
- My website has about 80-90% bounce rate as one article is not much related to the another article and for the same reason, people rarely click to read a second page. I have done nothing to change it and it's still as it was. So bounce rate issue is not causing any hurdles in getting my site's rank back.
- The site has one AdSense ad on the top and I haven't changed that either. So if that could have been the real cause of Fred, I wouldn't have had a recovery.
I can only point Fred update to one thing - "Backlink quality and anchor text ratio". This is from my own experience and your case may or may not be different. The site's traffic has touched 3000 again from 1750 within 2 weeks and the future is looking good again!