I don't follow any of the junk that gets spewed out from moz, but I do find some of their tools useful. As for not detecting hummingbird, their mozcast did detect the update when it happened, they just didn't know what it was called. They mentioned there was a "possible google update" that was unconfirmed by google. I remember seeing the huge fluctuation on mozcast, it wasn't until a month later that we found out it was the hummingbird.
Their mozcast did fail pretty miserably in detecting this update though.
http://serpmetrics.com/flux/ did a much better job.
Only 2 of my sites got affected negatively by this update (1 got destroyed, the other got sent to page 2), but all my other sites have been seeing nice increases in ranking. Although, this could all just be a random SERP dance before the update settles.