Ahrefs traffic estimations are based on their own CTR models and clickstream data, which often have a significant lag compared to real-time Google Search Console metrics. Since branded keywords often have unique search intent, the standard CTR curve might not accurately capture your actual clicks immediately, especially if the volume just recently spiked. I recommend relying on GSC for precise internal tracking while using Ahrefs primarily for competitor benchmarking and trend analysis, as it can take weeks for their database to reflect new traffic patterns