- May 17, 2024
- 1,390
- 205
Every arbitrageur or marketer has been here at least once:
You launch a conversion campaign
It passes moderation
Cheap leads start rolling in
You close your browser, feeling like a legend
Go to sleep dreaming of profit
Next day? Silence. No leads.
CPL starts climbing
You wait…
Another day passes—2 leads come in
Cost keeps rising
You kill the campaign, never reaching the sweet ROI
---
Why does this happen? Here's my take + ways to fix it
*Disclaimer*: This topic is super debatable. No one really knows how FB's algorithms work… probably not even Zuck himself
---
So, what's going on?
Honestly? No logic here
Facebook often shows ads *to everyone* at first. That’s why you get a few cheap leads right away. Then it tightens the targeting screws and… boom. Performance tanks.
Despite the hype, FB’s algo is *far* from perfect.
The pixel is “learning,” which leads to wild daily swings:
Monday: 15 leads
Tuesday: 2
Wednesday: 1
Thursday: 10
This is *normal* for FB. But not for arbitrage.
You're basically paying to educate the pixel—and no, it’s not a “great investment.”
Sometimes, it’s just an auction dip.
---
How to fix it?
I split solutions into 2 types:
Simple & Effective*
- Recreate or duplicate the ad campaign
- Run from other accounts
- Duplicate adsets
-
Set conversion window to 7 days
- Launch from multiple accs
---
Debatable Methods
-
Wait out pixel learning
- Judge results over 5–7 days
- Increase/decrease budget
- Tweak target age by ±2 years
-
Try CBO/manual bids
- Expand/narrow audience
- Retargeting
- Use Lookalikes
- Swap creatives
---
Conspiracy Corner
There’s a theory :
Low-trust accs (weak accs) that still manage to launch get worse lead prices.
Another one?
FB gives great results on Day 1 to hook you… then tanks performance so you spend more “training the pixel” . Classic big corp move.
You launch a conversion campaign
It passes moderationCheap leads start rolling in
You close your browser, feeling like a legend
Go to sleep dreaming of profit
Next day? Silence. No leads.
CPL starts climbing
You wait…
Another day passes—2 leads come in
Cost keeps rising
You kill the campaign, never reaching the sweet ROI
---
Why does this happen? Here's my take + ways to fix it
*Disclaimer*: This topic is super debatable. No one really knows how FB's algorithms work… probably not even Zuck himself---
So, what's going on?
Honestly? No logic here
Facebook often shows ads *to everyone* at first. That’s why you get a few cheap leads right away. Then it tightens the targeting screws and… boom. Performance tanks.
Despite the hype, FB’s algo is *far* from perfect.
The pixel is “learning,” which leads to wild daily swings:
Monday: 15 leads
Tuesday: 2
Wednesday: 1
Thursday: 10
This is *normal* for FB. But not for arbitrage.
You're basically paying to educate the pixel—and no, it’s not a “great investment.”
Sometimes, it’s just an auction dip.
---
How to fix it?
I split solutions into 2 types:
Simple & Effective*- Recreate or duplicate the ad campaign
- Run from other accounts
- Duplicate adsets
-
Set conversion window to 7 days- Launch from multiple accs
---
Debatable Methods
-
Wait out pixel learning- Judge results over 5–7 days
- Increase/decrease budget
- Tweak target age by ±2 years
-
Try CBO/manual bids- Expand/narrow audience
- Retargeting
- Use Lookalikes
- Swap creatives
---
Conspiracy Corner
There’s a theory :
Low-trust accs (weak accs) that still manage to launch get worse lead prices.
Another one?
FB gives great results on Day 1 to hook you… then tanks performance so you spend more “training the pixel” . Classic big corp move.
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