Yeah, yeah, you are completely right. I started last year with micro caps, sold them (they crashed last months). Now I'm just trying to get some 5X here and there. Not trying to chase 100X and this kind of stuff. In the end if I find two 5X it's 25X. And I guess we still have opportunity to find some 5X-10X in Top 200 coins, no?
Later we also have micro caps to multiply money as well
Anyway, I'm trying to follow the right order...like, what will pump first? ETH or large caps? I'm also buying IMX, but I don't know if I should focus in ETH before or after coins like RNDR, IMX, ONDO, INJ, etc...
Hehehehehe.
"If I find two 5X it's 25X"
You make it sound so easy!
But mathematically, those probabilities are very different.
Let's say you make 5 investments. Let the probability P(Y) = p where Y is a 5x gain.
So the probability of 1 of them 5x'ing is just p.
To calculate the probability that 2 out of 5 will 5x we use the binomial probability formula.
P(X = 2) = (5 2) * p^2 * q^3 where q is the probability of failure, or (1-p) ( the ( 5 2 ) bit is a binomial, vertical (), but I can't write it here )
If we calculate that we get
P(X=2) = 10p^2 * (1-p)^3
Now, the probability of getting 1 5x, and then 5xing again would be
P(X=1) = 5p - (1-p)^4
The probability of then 5x'ing is "p", so the probability of getting another 5x is
p * (5p- (1-p)^4)
= 5p^2 * (1-p)^4
Let's look at some actual numbers.
P(X = 2), if p = 10% is 7.29% (You can take my word for it or do the math yourself)
P(X = 1), if p = 10% is 32.81%
That means if the chance of 1 is 10%, and you make 5, you have a 32.81% chance of winning.
But, if you take that winner, which you had a 32.81% chance of, and aim to win again
You end up with p * 32.81% = 0.1 * 0.3281 = 0.03281 = 3.28%
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You're asking if you have a chance to find 5-10x's in the top 200.
10x is HUGE.
That needs a 10x in marketcap.
The top 200, is 200 coins
What percent of them will 5-10x from here?
I don't know. You'd have to do an analysis by comparing to the previous bull run.
But it's not 200/200 that's for sure.
The problem is the current top 200, wasn't top 200 last bull run.
If we look at polygon..
It's #79 now. market cap 1.31b.
it's pretty low tbh. It had its lowest since the last bull 2 weeks ago..
Last bull it hit $2.6. It's currently $0.55.
Will it hit $2.50 again?
Maybe..
83% bullish on coinmarketcap.
It hit $1.27 in march.
It's probably a safe bet. I don't like advising people on what to get, because I don't have a clue. I just wing it and I'm just a little better than most, but I don't have any special knowledge, and I'm not doing any sort of deep analysis on this.
If it went up to $1.27 in March 2023, it must still have interest, so you could grab this now and sell at $2 if you want a safe 4x. It might 5x. It might 10x. No one knows, but that's into gambling territory. Although gambling technically doesn't exist. Or rather gambling just means you don't know the odds. If you know the odds, you aren't gambling, are you?
You KNOW the result. I know, 100% what the result of roulette will be. Or rather, I know 100% that the result will converge to the mathematical probability.
Calculating exact probabilities in crypto is hard. You can guess. I'd put polygon at going to $2 at 80%
going to $3 I'd put it at 60%
$4 I'd say 30%
You can set your own numbers and then calculate based on that.
That means if you invest $1k and get out at $2, you're going to win 4 out of 5 times and lose all your money once out of 5.
If you have $5k to invest, and you pick 5 trades where you have a 1% chance to 1000x, then you're going to lose your money P(X=0) = 95.1% of the time.
P(X=1), the probability of 1 hitting is 4.8%
So 1 out of 20 times roughly you'll get your 1000x.
That would mean, if you repeated this trade, it would take you about 20 bull runs to win.
It's all just probabilities.
The more data and the more advanced your analytics, the better you can calculate probabilities for each coin going to Z.
But.. Go for polygon and sell at $2.
If it doesn't reach $2, just hold till the next bull. It'll survive.
Edit: Just noticed your 2nd question.
All I can say is that every bull is different. We dont' know what the waves will be. You can monitor twitter, or you could create an AI bot to guess. Twitter is the key. That's the market sentiment.
Personally I don't like eth and wouldn't really bother with it. I'd just look for more top 200 opportunities to 3x to 5x.
Look for coins that
A) Pumped in March 2024.
B) Haven't re-pumped yet.
C) Are top 200 (A meme that pumped in March isn't necessarily going to pump again, but a top 200 that pumepd in March has a strong probability of repumping)
