How to profit from the US Election using crypto?

[Brickbat1]

So Bitcoin surged today past $71k and the feelers I get is that its because of the approaching US election where some polls are looking at a possible Donald Trump win since he has shown a stronger crypto friendly stance than Kamala Harris. My thinking is that this possibility will virtually be priced in by election day and whether he wins or not, there should be some profit taking and a resultant price drop around the election date. How hard the drop may be would probably depend on if he wins or looses. If he looses, then a hard drop before a possible resumption of the bullish trend if at all. If he wins, a mild drop and a bounce at whatever supports will be available at that time. So in my thinking, win or loose, there will be a drop as election results confirm a winner.

What do you think is the best way to profit from this setup? futures? options? For my own reasons which i will not elaborate I think he will loose and therefore expect a hard drop. So it might be possible to ride this up and ride it down? Your thoughts?

*Ps please keep this on topic - just how to profit from it and not the politics of it.

 

[alurosu]

Just put money on your favorite using Polymarket and don't add extra steps

 

[Brickbat1]

Just put money on your favorite using Polymarket and don't add extra steps

Was just looking at polymarkets now after posting this.. What do you mean by extra steps?

 

[resurrects]

Was just looking at polymarkets now after posting this.. What do you mean by extra steps?

He meant do nothing else I guess. Personally I'm balls deep on Kamala winning the popular vote on polymarket , 58% odds are amazing for a democrat

 

[Brickbat1]

Hmm.. I see if one took a position months ago pro Kamala when it was at 1.0% would be looking at 9900% profit gain if she does win or am I missing something? looking like i am late to the party ...

 

[jcsuperstar]

He meant do nothing else I guess. Personally I'm balls deep on Kamala winning the popular vote on polymarket , 58% odds are amazing for a democrat

How much is balls deep?

 

[resurrects]

Hmm.. I see if one took a position months ago pro Kamala when it was at 1.0% would be looking at 9900% profit gain if she does win or am I missing something? looking like i am late to the party ...

not really, nobody predicted Biden dropping out. imo the actual market started when Biden dropped out

 

[resurrects]

How much is balls deep?

5 figures

 

[jcsuperstar]

5 figures

Oh blimey, yeah that is balls deep on Kamala winning the popular vote

 

[Brickbat1]

5 figures

Yikes! Thats really putting your money where your mouth is. Anyway, as with any trading setup, money management is essential so there is probably lots more where that came from.

 

[joseph15]

Well If I'm not mistaken, the crypto market was still very bullish even when Kamala was leading in the polls a few weeks ago. You may be right that in the short term the market will be more bloody if Trump loses, but the other side of the coin could be that many anticipate inflation to increase under a Kamala administration, which could potentially lead to more money being dumped into the markets.

Either way, I think all of these factors are priced in and the price impact won't be as significant as some people expect even if Trump loses

 

[xtucker]

you should be search for polymarket arbitrage

 

[Brickbat1]

you should be search for polymarket arbitrage

How does that work? is there another platform like that to arbitrage with?

 

[xtucker]

How does that work? is there another platform like that to arbitrage with?

https://mirror.xyz/polymarket.eth/d_BystUMrZjGBylSanHmHjLaQCQBcth7GPsJ7New-BY

 

[Brickbat1]

you should be search for polymarket arbitrage

Arbitraging polymarkets against other prediction markets is pretty risky. In fact, prediction markets are actually subject to the ideologies and whims of their operators. They can actually deny that a winner won based on their own metrics. The Venezuala election, a case in point where Maduro is the one sworn in and in power but Polymarkets claimed the opposition candidate was the real winner if rigging had not occurred. Even the definition of what constitutes a win is subjective to their criteria. So you can find that the variable outcomes are not as simple as a yes or a no. A more reliable asset price based market is preferable, but for those who just want to punt, I guess Polymarkets is good for that.

Take a read from here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1851050996023128321

 

[xtucker]

Arbitraging polymarkets against other prediction markets is pretty risky. In fact, prediction markets are actually subject to the ideologies and whims of their operators. They can actually deny that a winner won based on their own metrics. The Venezuala election, a case in point where Maduro is the one sworn in and in power but Polymarkets claimed the opposition candidate was the real winner if rigging had not occurred. Even the definition of what constitutes a win is subjective to their criteria. So you can find that the variable outcomes are not as simple as a yes or a no. A more reliable asset price based market is preferable, but for those who just want to punt, I guess Polymarkets is good for that.

Take a read from here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1851050996023128321

prediction market does not exist only on polymarket, find other platforms

 

[achiever2011]

Even Donald Trump loosing elections can still result in increase in bitcoin prices, the market is very unpredictable. There are hundreds of other factors involved . Like whales can manipulate in opposite of expected trend to make more money .

 

[Deleted member 1920510]

I agree to this :/ think all of these factors are priced in and the price impact won't be as significant as some people expect even if Trump wins