Anyone know how to play poker

[GenesisOne]

I know how to play it but find it pretty boring
A game who needs money to be played is not a game and I never play with my money

 

[Zakch93]

This is just NOT true. I feel like YOU have a misconception when it comes to the impact luck has on your results as a poker player.



In small sample sizes? Yes!

In big sample sizes? No!


I am fairly familiar with the tool and, yes, you´re right on the fact two players over a 100,000 hands sample will eventually show different results but that´s due to variance.

And we circle around the same point again. I was taught that in poker there´s no such thing as "luck" but only "variance". What "common people," say is "luck" is purely variance kicking in.

Let´s clarify a couple of concepts here before moving forward.

One thing will be your "real" results and a different thing will be your "EV" (Expected Value) results. This is why you will often hear poker players saying stuff like "I am running 2bb under EV" or "variance owes me $XXX".

So going back to your point, yes, two players will often show different results but if they have the same winrate (I will use winrate since in your example you´re referring to a cash player sample) their expected results (before playing a single hand) will be identical.

Let me prove it to you using the poker dope calculator.

Let´s assume we´re comparing two players with a 10bb/100 winrate over a 100,000 hand sample.

Player 1

Player 2

As you said, two players over a 100,000 hand sample even with the same winrate will most likely end up with different results but, when comparing their confidence interval we can see it´s exactly the same no matter how many times you run the simulations using those same parameters...

Player 1

Player 2

As you can see, with a 95% confidence interval we can safely estimate the results from the two players in our example will fall anywhere between +3.68bb/100 and 16.32bb/100 with a probability of loss after 100,000 hands of 0.0783%.

Again, these metrics won´t change regardless of how many times you run the simulation.

I have been away from the game for 5+ years but back in the day 100,000 hand sample for a regular cash player, someone that played poker professionally was the equivalent of around a month and a half or two months of play.

Additionally, it will take a hell of a lot of "running bad" for a guy with a proven 10bb/100 winrate on any level to NOT make money or end up with a profit over a 100,000 hand sample size. It´s just NOT statistically possible.

Winrate and ROIs are the ultimate "variance killer".

Players with low winrates/ROIs will inevitably "run worse" in comparison to someone with a much higher winrate/ROI over the same sample size.

And sustaining a high winrate/ROI over big or representative samples will require a hell lot more than just "luck" or having the "variance" on your side.

Of course, this is not the same with tournament players as winning a single tournament (especially if it´s a big one - Like the Sunday Million) can take you from a -50% player over a 10k tournament sample to +50% but that doesn´t mean you´re a profitable MTT player, you just got "lucky" winning a single tournament that happened that was above your regular buying and changed everything for you.

Cash players and SNG regulars are different in that regard.


It has to be a high variance poker format for you to run badly over a 100,000 hand sample that you weren´t able to turn a profit.

A couple of examples that come to mind are high-stakes Hyper 6max SNGs and Spin&Gos.

Or, if you´re playing on a stake that you just can´t beat. I saw this all the time with cash game buddies trying to move from NL50 to NL100 or from NL10 to NL50.

You might have sustained a 10bb/100 winrate on NL10 but if you´re getting crushed in NL50 that might not be variance and it´s just the fact you´re unable to beat the field at that stake.

Same with SNGs.

I remember playing $2.50 Turbos 180s SNGs on PokerStars and multi-tabling 20-22 tables at the same time and sustaining a 22% ROI but, when trying the $3r and the $8s I got murdered.

I had to drastically drop the number of tables I was playing to heavily focus a lot more on each decision I was taking. This transition cost me a lot but once I made it and started beating $3r and $8 consistently I started loading $15s as well and beating them at a 16% ROI over 9,000+ SNGs played.


100% agree with this!

And I dealt with this a hell lot. I just couldn´t stand how people made X, Y, or Z move at certain situations/stages of an SNG or MTT and got so mad it affected my mental state and my decision-making for the remaining of the session.

This was the time then encountered people like Jarred Tendler from who I learned quite a lot about how to manage my emotions while playing.


True


If your winrate/ROI is high, the difference between the expected results and your actual results will be smaller (as shown in the example above).

It´s been a while since I chatted this much about poker.

Remember in the old days how I practically lived in the twoplustwo forum hahaha

Thanks for reviving those feelings.

Cheers mate!

Well this was detailed.

 

[Roger Marquez]

I know how to play it but find it pretty boring

You surely have never felt the rush of playing at a final table of a tournament

But I understand how you feel and this is mainly why I never played cash games and went for SNGs and MTTs instead.

When playing cash games, I got bored pretty easily after a couple of hours something that doesn´t happen often when playing MTT/SNGs especially if you´re good enough to frequently reach the later stages of those formats.

A game who needs money to be played is not a game and I never play with my money

You can always get staked to play poker.

I played most of my career staked until the end when I was able to save up some money and play on my own. Of course, if you don´t know what you´re doing chances are you´re going broke but if you´re a proven winning player and implement some basics bankroll management rules/tips chances of going broke are slim to none.

 

[CreativeDaddy]

Playing for 12 years now, mainly on pokerstars. It's just a great game.

There is a good book for beginners who want to improve called "Massive Profit at the Micros" by Nathan Williams.
You can get it online for free or I can send it.

 

[Elvlin]

who haven't? at least play at schoold as teenager lol

 

[asasin]

5 cards,omaha and holdem..10 years exp..