Do you think BTC is going above $20K or about to dump?

[Deleted member 1333509]

Thoughts? (obviously no one knows for sure, no need to add the standard disclaimer.. just what you think will happen is good enough).

 

[Mr Positive]

$250000k prove me wrong

 

[SocialNed]

My guess is that it will eventually tip over 20k and then hype will push it to 22k, it will then come down to 17 or so, and then proceed to slowly push through 20k again and onwards. There are simply too many institutions pumping money into bitcoin right now it's literally a fight to keep the price low so that they can accumulate as much as possible on the way up.

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

$250000k prove me wrong

Wow, why such a low ball prediction mate?

 

[bartosimpsonio]

Price prediction doesn't make any sense.

Might as well go to $1 million in my opinion.

 

[Habits123]

Nobody will know its basically gambling

 

[SocialNed]

Nobody will know its basically gambling

Yeah, just like holding your wealth in fiat at this point.

 

[Deleted member 283687]

To the moon

 

[HustleTong]

Sky is the limit. Yet, stay armed to face the dip
This unpredictability has an upside. If too many people don't know where it's headed, people usually spiral down to wishful thinking.

 

[venturetrade]

BTC or any other crypto coin is basically a gamble, no real insight, no real reasoning behind the valuation.
so as a pure gamble I got my "I don't give a fuck" money invested in it, maybe I'll struck gold, maybe I'll lose some money which won't hurt me even one bit.
So far, I'm doing good.

That's the approach I recommend to everyone taking chances on high risk investments.

 

[rajkumar31]

Wow, IDGAF and $25K have equal votes. Interested to see which one wins at the end!

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

BTC or any other crypto coin is basically a gamble, no real insight, no real reasoning behind the valuation.
so as a pure gamble I got my "I don't give a fuck" money invested in it, maybe I'll struck gold, maybe I'll lose some money which won't hurt me even one bit.
So far, I'm doing good.

That's the approach I recommend to everyone taking chances on high risk investments.

You've got the right attitude with only putting a relatively low amount into it judging by how likely is it that you could lose it.

Crypto trading isn't like gambling though, except when people are really new to the market and don't understand it at all and then it's 100% the same as gambling.

Not saying that you can ask what the exact price will be in a week and someone could tell you, but the movements are a mix of randomness and being orchestrated.

The best example is the bull run every 4 years. It happens as a result in the sharp reduction in supply and increase in scarcity and so it's quite predictable that every 4 years there are good times to invest and good times to sell.

You can't compare that to flipping a coin or playing blackjack. Even on a day to day basis, the patterns of price movement and volume size can be used to increase your chance of making profitable trades.. certainly not getting 100% surety most of the time, but you get what I mean.

You can look up places like r/algotrading to understand just how predictable the crypto and traditional asset markets can actually be if trading is informed by data.




Judging by votes so far, I'd say the most likely outcome is probably that we're dumping to $15K. Would be most advantageous for whales anyway. (based on a 25 person sample )

 

[venturetrade]

You've got the right attitude with only putting a relatively low amount into it judging by how likely is it that you could lose it.

Crypto trading isn't like gambling though, except when people are really new to the market and don't understand it at all and then it's 100% the same as gambling.

Not saying that you can ask what the exact price will be in a week and someone could tell you, but the movements are a mix of randomness and being orchestrated.

The best example is the bull run every 4 years. It happens as a result in the sharp reduction in supply and increase in scarcity and so it's quite predictable that every 4 years there are good times to invest and good times to sell.

You can't compare that to flipping a coin or playing blackjack. Even on a day to day basis, the patterns of price movement and volume size can be used to increase your chance of making profitable trades.. certainly not getting 100% surety most of the time, but you get what I mean.

You can look up places like r/algotrading to understand just how predictable the crypto and traditional asset markets can actually be if trading is informed by data.




Judging by votes so far, I'd say the most likely outcome is probably that we're dumping to $15K.

When you look at risk management, predictions are worthless unless you have something solid to base it on,
while we are accustomed to look at the stock market history trends, assuming the same applies to crypto is just wishful thinking.
Why? the answer is simple.. ownership and possession. since you can never make any legal claim on a bitcoin without any real ownership documents.. it's a gamble. see mt.gox and alike.

not being argumentative bro, just my 2c and point of view.

 

[nakamura]

Maybe temporarily, but then the EXACT same thing as in 2017/2018 will happen.

Now everyone around me starts talking about Bitcoin again. Thats a red flag for me and a sign to sell soon. I am afraid to tell you the journey to the moon might take longer than expected

 

[LazyTomato]

20.000 is a major resistance because it's the all time high. People want to get their money back and feel uncomfortable above it so it will take some consolidation time to breach it. As BTc is still at 18.000-19.000 I'd say in a few months well breach the all time high.

Either way if you want to make money dollar cost average into it

 

[alurosu]

$250000k prove me wrong

You didn't mention a time. Now it's below your price. I proved you wrong.

What do I win?

 

[Deleted member 1333509]

When you look at risk management, predictions are worthless unless you have something solid to base it on,
while we are accustomed to look at the stock market history trends, assuming the same applies to crypto is just wishful thinking.
Why? the answer is simple.. ownership and possession. since you can never make any legal claim on a bitcoin without any real ownership documents.. it's a gamble. see mt.gox and alike.

not being argumentative bro, just my 2c and point of view.

Yeah all good mate, I don't consider this an argument either - it's nice to discuss to see other peoples' opinions

So you've got a few different points there..

Agree that risk management requires something solid to base it on. Going back the easiest example, I would suggest that a computational mechanism which can't be changed by corrupt groups or individuals and that we know with 100% certainty will cut the supply of BTC in half every 4 years is something much more solid to base predictions on than many things that would typically be considered to be prudent fundamental analysis for stocks (ie. replacing the CEO for a better one should indicate the stronger value of the underlying stock following that because of their impact on the company, but it's less reliable than a the Bitcoin halving, because the Bitcoin halving is absolutely predictable and so is the impact of the event, where even an amazing CEO could have a limited impact on the trajectory of the company in comparison to prior expectations of the market).

The point about historic trends being wishful thinking, continues from the last point in that it's an event that is certain and the impact of it is significant. Hoping BTC goes above $20K now might be wishful thinking, predicting a long term upwards trend in the crypto market pronounced with large increases for a period of 6 - 12 months ever 4 years isn't wishful thinking, but the opposite of that.

Interested in your last point too. "You can't make a legal claim on Bitcoin without ownership documents". Sure, I agree. If two people disputed the ownership of the contents of a BTC wallet, both having the private key, and there being no other supporting evidence like an email to indicate ownership, sure you couldn't legally resolve that (easily). In a situation where you are the only person with the private key to a BTC (or any crypto) wallet though, you indeed have legal ownership in many jurisdictions around the world.

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-ownership-your-private-keys-to-financial-sovereignty/http://sjss.uniforense.it/bitcoin-p...hip of the private key,not take the whole way
It's not something I consider to be a majorly contentious point though because this doesn't really come up often either legally or otherwise. People normally just control their wallets. That point doesn't really have anything to do with Mt. Gox either though, because that's a question of whether your funds are stored on an exchange or you hold your keys. As long as you hold your keys via a hardware wallet etc then events like the Mt. Gox "hack" wouldn't affect you.

Interesting points though.

 

[Fresh Ideas Marketing]

It will be either above 25k or below 10k.
I will be happy on both condition

 

[venturetrade]

Yeah all good mate, I don't consider this an argument either - it's nice to discuss to see other peoples' opinions

So you've got a few different points there..

Agree that risk management requires something solid to base it on. Going back the easiest example, I would suggest that a computational mechanism which can't be changed by corrupt groups or individuals and that we know with 100% certainty will cut the supply of BTC in half every 4 years is something much more solid to base predictions on than many things that would typically be considered to be prudent fundamental analysis for stocks (ie. replacing the CEO for a better one should indicate the stronger value of the underlying stock following that because of their impact on the company, but it's less reliable than a the Bitcoin halving, because the Bitcoin halving is absolutely predictable and so is the impact of the event, where even an amazing CEO could have a limited impact on the trajectory of the company in comparison to prior expectations of the market).

The point about historic trends being wishful thinking, continues from the last point in that it's an event that is certain and the impact of it is significant. Hoping BTC goes above $20K now might be wishful thinking, predicting a long term upwards trend in the crypto market pronounced with large increases for a period of 6 - 12 months ever 4 years isn't wishful thinking, but the opposite of that.

Interested in your last point too. "You can't make a legal claim on Bitcoin without ownership documents". Sure, I agree. If two people disputed the ownership of the contents of a BTC wallet, both having the private key, and there being no other supporting evidence like an email to indicate ownership, sure you couldn't legally resolve that (easily). In a situation where you are the only person with the private key to a BTC (or any crypto) wallet though, you indeed have legal ownership in many jurisdictions around the world.

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-ownership-your-private-keys-to-financial-sovereignty/http://sjss.uniforense.it/bitcoin-p...hip of the private key,not take the whole way
It's not something I consider to be a majorly contentious point though because this doesn't really come up often either legally or otherwise. People normally just control their wallets. That point doesn't really have anything to do with Mt. Gox either though, because that's a question of whether your funds are stored on an exchange or you hold your keys. As long as you hold your keys via a hardware wallet etc then events like the Mt. Gox "hack" wouldn't affect you.

Interesting points though.

Thanks for the healthy discussion and I like how you view things,
Allow me to rephrase my self a bit so my point will be better understood.

For the sake of discussion let's assume you found a solid way to have insightful predictions based on some patterns (no matter which ones).
My entire stance is based on the fact that there are too many uncontrolled factors, such as, mainly, big crypto exchangers and deepweb markets,
why are they a factor? I'll explain.

While it's true that you can hold a local bitcoin wallet, we know that your average joe isn't doing that,
we also know based on prior experience that once a big event like mt.gox happens, it directly effects people anxiety and along with it the pricing of BTC is going wild.
so even IF your predictions is somewhat solid, this unknown factor isn't something you can begin to even try and risk calculate into your predictions.

Deepweb, before you call me crazy for pointing out that as a point (lol)
Let me remind you that the majority of BTC transactions and holding are in the deepweb (trust me I'm a security researcher)
market exit scams? well known there.. huge blenders/mixers are busted by the feds or making an exist? sure happens daily.
you're talking about hundreds of millions in BTC, don't tell me you think it has no effect whatsoever.
what if.. the deepweb will change to xmr? (which is happening as we speak), BTC again will go into a crazy vortex.

So to sum it up, in my point of view, crypto has far too many unknown factors to it to try and put it into classic patterns.
sure while it's working, everyone is claiming to have predicted it, knew it all smartasses, but when it plunges? no one has a reasonable explanation other then saying "well we knew it's crazy", so if you don't have a reasonable explanation to why it crashed, you can't have a reasonable prediction to why it will keep rising.

 

[liyong601c]

Go up to 30K!!!
F....I sold out $30K when 9K per one...