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Deleted member 1333509
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*Disclaimer: This is obviously just an idea, and ideas can be wildly wrong. There is as much chance that the price of BTC could do 20 other things in the coming days, don't use this idea solely to trade on.
With that out the way, I think there's going to be an upwards fake out once the ascending triangle is breached, but that at around 27th June there's going to be a major event. I mentioned this in a previous post weeks ago.
It could be a large upwards move in price or downwards, but it makes more sense that the price would crash at ~$10k than it would spike.
Important considerations:
- so many traders (esp newer traders) are chomping at the bit for the next bull run. If the price pumps upwards out of the current ascending triangle, a lot of them will assuming it's moving up from the $10k range and will buy in (standard bull trap).
- there are also a ton of shorting stoplosses just above $10k, and by punching up through the top of the triangle, a lot of shorters will be stopped out, just before a large crash that the bears would have profited significantly from if they didn't get stopped out.
- if you look at the two previous bull runs, at the point we're comparatively at now they ran flat for months. That means range bound trading. I think it's more likely that $10k would be the top of range bound trading than in the centre of it.
- the last thing a lot of people would expect so soon after one of the largest single day crashes in the history of BTC is another one that's larger 3 months later.
- novice traders need to be shaken out of the market before a new bull run can form. It's so profitable for whales to shake out novices that it's a no brainer that they will do everything possible to psychologically torment them with more unpredictable volatility over the coming months.
- the market took a huge nosedive when lockdowns began - hence the first crash. In the last week we've seen the US going through unprecedented social unrest, but there's been no response in the crypto market yet. An orchestrated crash by whales like what I'm thinking could happen can easily be blamed on the social unrest in the US we're seeing right now.
- the crypto market has recovered much stronger than traditional markets since the crashes. There's been a continual upwards trend in the crypto market since the crash, with limited major profit taking yet. Any whales that bought heavily at the bottom of the last big crash would now be free to sell heavily at a significant profit, while traumatising the market in the process.
Anyway, as I said take this with a pinch of salt. Could be way off, might be kind of accurate. Probably won't be completely accurate. Either way, I do think something fairly major is coming around 27th. We'll see.. GL
yes, many friends of mine hope that the price will drop to 6k.. personally I have doubts about that
