A look at John mcafee's one million dollar prediction about bitcoin

[deal with it]

for a moment forget the guy's name and his prediction number. And remember the explanation he gave for the prediction he makes. He says that as the mining for bitcoin becomes harder and harder which is 100% true its going to be no question on that, the cost of mining which is also the cost of validating transactions (which is how your transactions gets confirmed) is getting increased here as it becomes harder to mine. So naturally today what 1 bitcoin costs four figure might tomorrow (or any future date) might cost five figure as bitcoin mining solely requires electricity irrespective of what your equipment are and electricity everywhere on the planet costs money.

So yeah, if we go by this bitcoin's value going up seems inevitable thing if people want bitcoin to stay, if they dont want they can just leave bitcoin altogether, in this case as bitcoin price goes lower there is no incentive to mine as you know by now the money required to mine will be so high compared to what miners might get by selling their reward from mining process and how the fuck people are going to transact bitcoin between one another when there is no one to validate their transaction even when the price of bitcoin goes $1 ? It will be a ghost town.

So assuming existence of bitcoin for a long time to come, the value increase seems completely inevitable and you can safely put millions into it only risk is the risk you are taking on the existence of this whole crypto industry, its as simple as that.

Im going to quote some sensible people from this forum who are positive and negative on crypto industry, those whom i can remember others free to share your views.

@Asif WILSON Khan
@mickyfu
@jazzc
@BassTrackerBoats
@PinguSpy
@Total Noob

 

[Aulig]

'you can safely put millions into it' lmao

 

[deal with it]

'you can safely put millions into it' lmao

see you completely lost the idea behind the topic, million is just a number.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

I believe in Crypto, I really do, I just think this is still the early stages and that BTC is unlikely to be THE coin of the future.
I think eventually there will be a crash, I think people will lose money but I think it will be good for the Crypto world in the long term as it will allow for something better to be developed.
A lot of issues still need to be addressed.

 

[MSRP]

I still remember buy 10000BTC for $65 long time ago. It was a gold moment for me.
And today I don't expect to much on crypto games but I still invest a lot on BTC till today. Personally I am ready for big loses at anytime. And whatever the "expert" say I only wait BTC fly to the moon again.

 

[PinguSpy]

I still remember buy 10000BTC for $65 long time ago. It was a gold moment for me.
And today I don't expect to much on crypto games but I still invest a lot on BTC till today. Personally I am ready for big loses at anytime. And whatever the "expert" say I only wait BTC fly to the moon again.

$65 per btc or $65 for 10,000?

So you still hold that much amount of btc?

 

[MSRP]

$65 per btc or $65 for 10,000?

So you still hold that much amount of btc?

10,000BTC for $65. It was 2010.
I only hold the coin 4 years and it has been traded after that.

 

[NulledCode]

I would be more worried about the first part of what you wrote regarding bitcoin running out and becoming nearly impossible to mine that miners become too few and far between. If all of the bitcoins are mined what incentive is there for miners? I don’t think transaction fees will cover their cost of mining. I really don’t see the long termneed for bitcoin.

 

[Darth Orko]

I think the mining question is just a secondary factor driving the worth of BTC. Making money from generating the crypto is just an interim opportunity, as the main thing driving its value is it is a digital medium of exchange that is independent of the banks and governments.

 

[jazzc]

So assuming existence of bitcoin for a long time to come, the value increase seems completely inevitable

The argument is sound but only "ceteris paribus". That's a phrase used all the time in economics and it means "all other things being equal".

In other words, it is absolutely true that once the supply of new items ends, the value of each item is mostly a function of demand alone (there's still the matter of "people tend to hodl" vs "people tend to liquidate" which varies the supply even when new items are not being produced, but that's a small factor in the picture we're discussing).

But - and it's an important but - that doesn't mean that the demand will go up. Remember, the argument only says that price will follow demand. It does not say that price will go up. That's where the ceteris paribus comes in and that's the slight of hand McAfee is pulling there. If for example one year after production ends a new law passes and owning BTC means a free vacation to Gitmo, demand will plummet and so will price. Yes, price will be still following demand but that's not really what we care about as far as our money is concerned.

 

[tb303]

McAfee is betting on the reward halving. Not strictly the difficulty as that can go down. The hash rate dropped after the last having but came back before it caused a difficulty adjustment I believe. The price actually dropped before the having by ~30% before recovering by the end of the year.

very rough calculation with no rounding down....
Year    Block reward
2009    50
2013    25
2016    12.5
2020    6.25
2024    3.125
2028    1.5625
2032    0.78125
2036    0.390625
2040    0.1953125
2044    0.09765625
....
2100    0.00000596
2104    0.00000298
2108    0.00000149
2112    0.00000074
2116    0.00000037
2120    0.00000018
2124    0.00000009
2128    0.00000004
2132    0.00000002
2136    0.00000001
2140    0

At some point the incentive becomes the tx fee's not the block reward. So maybe the price will need to go up to cover mining costs but that assumes the hash rate doesnt drop which is a pretty big assumption IMO. Sure, technology advances but can ASIC's keep getting more efficient or will it hit a wall?

Longer term...The problem I see is at what point will that SHA2 algorithm start to be looking as weak as MD5? Changing the algo needs a hard fork. It probably wont be contentious but it will be a worrying time for anyone still with BTC at that time. Look at how many people panic sold before the BCH fork.

 

[The Universe Legend]

@Neon can u give as please a prediction about dogecoin..?

 

[Deleted member 719276]

@Neon can u give as please a prediction about dogecoin..?

Dear, dogecoin will be split into two in the near future: doge and coin. Doge will be like Tom and coin will be like Jerry. So basically the price of Tom & Jerry will decrease very fast and the price of Doge & Coin will increase.
Looking at the bollinger bands and the MACD, you can clearly see how the chart goes the same direction where Apollo 11 eventually went.

 

[The Universe Legend]

Dear, dogecoin will be split into two in the near future: doge and coin. Doge will be like Tom and coin will be like Jerry. So basically the price of Tom & Jerry will decrease very fast and the price of Doge & Coin will increase.
Looking at the bollinger bands and the MACD, you can clearly see how the chart goes the same direction where Apollo 11 eventually went.

Here is what we can call a real prediction!
Good dog!

 

[296628]

These companies have but BIG MILLIONS behind developing a generation of geniuses to engineer this market

That money will NOT be lost... Understand.

Even our groceries are soon to be all by internet. Digital currency will rule this market.

I expect Ripple to make a big come back and Bitcoin will remain here as well.

Look at this new story from JPMorgan who's alleged to have investment in Ripple:
https://smartereum.com/3054/jp-morg...to-stay-cryptocurrency-news-today-sun-nov-04/

 

[Verost]

Digital currency will never control this market. To do this, the whole world must rebuild the entire financial system.

 

[royserpa]

Dear, dogecoin will be split into two in the near future: doge and coin. Doge will be like Tom and coin will be like Jerry. So basically the price of Tom & Jerry will decrease very fast and the price of Doge & Coin will increase.
Looking at the bollinger bands and the MACD, you can clearly see how the chart goes the same direction where Apollo 11 eventually went.

But apollo 11 was done in a hollywood basement (californication) by mr kubrick, dear. So charts are going to hollywood, doggy?

 

[J0sh]

I get how it's going to be harder to mine a bitcoin. But the problem is I can't buy anything with bitcoin. The technology is great, I love the idea behind it all... But until I can buy a whopper with my bitcoin it is going to be absolutely worthless to me and everyone else outside of just being a cool piece of tech.

 

[Deleted member 719276]

But apollo 11 was done in a hollywood basement (californication) by mr kubrick, dear. So charts are going to hollywood, doggy?

dear me was wrong, me mean STS-51-L (Challenger) instead of Apollo 11. My bad dear, pls accept apology :*

 

[HoNeYBiRD]

electricity everywhere on the planet costs money.

This is not exactly true. It doesn't cost the same amount everywhere, there are countries where it's dirt cheap (for instance in Venezuela the electricity cost to mine 1 BTC is around $500, in Bahrain it's $17k, just to mention the two extremities) or for instamce in my country the workers of the nuclear power plant get electricity a lot cheaper than the average person, which is thousands of people, close to 10k. Electricity can also cost you nothing (after 6-10 years payback period), if you use solar panels, which exist and popular for quite some time now, so more and more people are able to produce electricity for free.