Ensili
Junior Member
- Dec 19, 2012
- 159
- 112
Hello everyone,
looking at the current development of the crypto market as well as the countless messages of any type of media outlet, I can not help but wonder where the bull market is supposed to be coming from this time in order to get back to ATHs, let alone reach prices beyond.
Let me first clarify that I am an absolute proponent of not only blockchain as a technology but cryptocurrency as well. I understand that it is still full of flaws but I can see its superior technology prevail in the long run, one way or the other.
However, I feel like the majority (still) invested is currently asking the wrong questions with regard to a potential price recovery of total market cap to ATHs.
Most of the discussion is about bear vs bull market but where does the majority of a bull market actually come from?
Until end of last year the mass market was not yet involved in cryptocurrency. Once crypto experienced mass adoption for the first time, we saw prices and market cap reach ATHs until January this year.
Since then we have seen prices of even the top cryptos cut in half - market cap as of writing this thread is hovering around $300b give or take. ATH was over $800b.
Where are $500b (and more) supposed to come from? Let's go through the different options I can currently come up with:
1.) Most importantly, the mass market. Well, this market is a dumb, uneducated but most influential collective that moves pretty much everything. Let's face it - it doesn't care about the potential use cases and technology (yet). It is heavily perception driven and crypto is largely perceived as an investment; high risk/ high reward - not as a long-term technology with practical use cases. Cryptocurrencies' mass market success has been based on hype and FOMO not on rational thinking.
This perception is detrimental right now because the mass market doesn't forgive and forget easily. It has seen prices decrease to a level where the overall message conveyed by mass media albeit populist holds true. "Crypto is a highly volatile market and you will probably lose all your money!"
How can the larger majority forget that people lost actual property by taking out second mortgages?! Especially because media thankfully picks up any negative press about crypto as quickly as they can. It doesn't matter that those individuals were stupid enough to do so - all that matters is that the mass market most likely won't make the same mistake twice.
So my question for this option is: Is there still a mass market that has not yet adopted to cryptocurrency? Maybe countries that weren't as invested since the first mass adoption phase last couple of months.
Is there still the possibility that the previously invested mass market is going to reinvest albeit all the arguments speaking against it?
2.) Second option I see is that we will see ATHs again due to institutions, banks, large companies, major investors, countries jumping into cryptocurrency. This is obviously already happening but on a larger scale in the future.
I guess it might make the market less volatile but at the same time, wouldn't that development be against pretty much everything cryptocurrency stands for? Large amounts of total market cap in the hands of the powerful 1%? (Not that this shift is already happening anyway).
3.) Another option I can see while market cap may or may not recover, current market value is going to be redistributed between top cryptocurrencies away from altcoins without any major following and more importantly without any practical use cases. This is something the larger majority of "experts" in the crypto space (from what I have seen) view as a realistic development.
I guess most realistically all of these options will develop simultaneously in the future - at least in my opinion. But will it be enough for the bull market to return to ATHs and beyond?
Another psychological factor I want to quickly point out is how the market cap/ crypto price is currently decreasing.
Right now it is not necessarily perceived as a volatile crash but as a slowly depleting market. Which is worse in my opinion because it leads to people being less involved in any positive development as well which in return results in what we are currently seeing with most coins. Prices decrease by 10% only to increase again by 5%, they decrease by 15% and increase by 7%.
In the long run without any major attention towards positive developments in the crypto market (and it has to be big news with great impact) which of these options above (or others I didn't think about) will be able to shift the current downward momentum?
Will it take months or years for an actual bull market to return?
Obviously most of what I've written is up for debate and I'd very much appreciate any insight by more knowledgeable people in this space and from members of this forum that value constructive discussions over name calling and absolutes.
I am for now a bit dumbstruck by what is currently happening and I sincerely hope that I am wrong for the most part in my assessment.
I am not a native speaker and I wrote my thoughts down without any structure behind it, so I hope I was able to get my point across.
Have a great day everyone,
Ensili
looking at the current development of the crypto market as well as the countless messages of any type of media outlet, I can not help but wonder where the bull market is supposed to be coming from this time in order to get back to ATHs, let alone reach prices beyond.
Let me first clarify that I am an absolute proponent of not only blockchain as a technology but cryptocurrency as well. I understand that it is still full of flaws but I can see its superior technology prevail in the long run, one way or the other.
However, I feel like the majority (still) invested is currently asking the wrong questions with regard to a potential price recovery of total market cap to ATHs.
Most of the discussion is about bear vs bull market but where does the majority of a bull market actually come from?
Until end of last year the mass market was not yet involved in cryptocurrency. Once crypto experienced mass adoption for the first time, we saw prices and market cap reach ATHs until January this year.
Since then we have seen prices of even the top cryptos cut in half - market cap as of writing this thread is hovering around $300b give or take. ATH was over $800b.
Where are $500b (and more) supposed to come from? Let's go through the different options I can currently come up with:
1.) Most importantly, the mass market. Well, this market is a dumb, uneducated but most influential collective that moves pretty much everything. Let's face it - it doesn't care about the potential use cases and technology (yet). It is heavily perception driven and crypto is largely perceived as an investment; high risk/ high reward - not as a long-term technology with practical use cases. Cryptocurrencies' mass market success has been based on hype and FOMO not on rational thinking.
This perception is detrimental right now because the mass market doesn't forgive and forget easily. It has seen prices decrease to a level where the overall message conveyed by mass media albeit populist holds true. "Crypto is a highly volatile market and you will probably lose all your money!"
How can the larger majority forget that people lost actual property by taking out second mortgages?! Especially because media thankfully picks up any negative press about crypto as quickly as they can. It doesn't matter that those individuals were stupid enough to do so - all that matters is that the mass market most likely won't make the same mistake twice.
So my question for this option is: Is there still a mass market that has not yet adopted to cryptocurrency? Maybe countries that weren't as invested since the first mass adoption phase last couple of months.
Is there still the possibility that the previously invested mass market is going to reinvest albeit all the arguments speaking against it?
2.) Second option I see is that we will see ATHs again due to institutions, banks, large companies, major investors, countries jumping into cryptocurrency. This is obviously already happening but on a larger scale in the future.
I guess it might make the market less volatile but at the same time, wouldn't that development be against pretty much everything cryptocurrency stands for? Large amounts of total market cap in the hands of the powerful 1%? (Not that this shift is already happening anyway).
3.) Another option I can see while market cap may or may not recover, current market value is going to be redistributed between top cryptocurrencies away from altcoins without any major following and more importantly without any practical use cases. This is something the larger majority of "experts" in the crypto space (from what I have seen) view as a realistic development.
I guess most realistically all of these options will develop simultaneously in the future - at least in my opinion. But will it be enough for the bull market to return to ATHs and beyond?
Another psychological factor I want to quickly point out is how the market cap/ crypto price is currently decreasing.
Right now it is not necessarily perceived as a volatile crash but as a slowly depleting market. Which is worse in my opinion because it leads to people being less involved in any positive development as well which in return results in what we are currently seeing with most coins. Prices decrease by 10% only to increase again by 5%, they decrease by 15% and increase by 7%.
In the long run without any major attention towards positive developments in the crypto market (and it has to be big news with great impact) which of these options above (or others I didn't think about) will be able to shift the current downward momentum?
Will it take months or years for an actual bull market to return?
Obviously most of what I've written is up for debate and I'd very much appreciate any insight by more knowledgeable people in this space and from members of this forum that value constructive discussions over name calling and absolutes.
I am for now a bit dumbstruck by what is currently happening and I sincerely hope that I am wrong for the most part in my assessment.
I am not a native speaker and I wrote my thoughts down without any structure behind it, so I hope I was able to get my point across.
Have a great day everyone,
Ensili
