Then you don't see the future that's coming.
The world is changing RAPIDLY.
AI, 3d printing, nanotech and crypto are the new industrial revolution. This isn't just about some "crypto coin fad". It's about the world becoming HIGHLY digital. The integration of biology and computers and the integration of humans and machine intelligence. This is where the world is going. In 20-25 years we will not be walking around with plastic visa/mastercards and leather wallets with cash.
Elon Musk wants to land humans on mars by 2026. MARS. Things are getting crazy. If you think we are still going to be clinging to gold like humans of 2000 years ago then you need to look deep at what's going on in the world and use your imagination more.
We will be mining in space soon.
We can't stay on earth. We will die out as a species if we don't get off the earth pretty soon. This pandemic is evidence of that. Much worse will come with advances in technology and the fundamental human aggression.
You might be right about your predictions, they certainly have a lot of logical ground. But, for now, I will keep my wealth where the big guys (central banks & financial institutions) do, in
gold. No offense, but they know a bit better when it comes to preserving wealth, they have literally been doing it for multiple generations. When they start replacing their gold reserves with bitcoin and make it the de-facto inflation-proof currency like gold has been for at least 5k+ years, I will too.
No need to rush, you will have plenty of time to see the replacement of gold with bitcoin and exchange in time. It won't happen overnight and suddenly all gold owners will be left broke. And if BTC does become the next gold, it doesn't matter then what price you buy as long as you buy for wealth preservation purposes, just like gold - on average, long-term, it will always maintain value.
But, have you ever thought that this might not happen either? I was giving the subject of wealth preservation a very deep look one day. Stocks, bonds, private compaies, startups, crazy projects, they are all good for increasing wealth, but not preserving it. In my analysis, 2 assets were the best: real estate & gold.
Real estate is easily understandable. People need to live and sleep, basic need. Limited amount of land on Earth, so scarcity. Hence why real estate will always be inflation proof on long-term. No matter how many innovations we make, like steel and scaling buildings up, which increased the amount of livable land in the 1850s+ 10x in just a few years. But then again, population always keeps up and increases at the same rate. When we increase the total livable land again by some innovation (either by settling on Mars, terraforming the Moon or even conquering the oceans), population will increase again to keep up. This balance makes sure real estate never loses value long term, only short.
Now, let's take gold. Same principle of scarcity applies. High demand, limited supply. Reserves are actually abundant, but they scale with the current population at the time. For example, the reserves we have globally today are dozens (if not hundreds) of times more than say, 2000 years ago. But the population is also more and has scaled at roughly the same rate, keeping the balance of demand/supply in the scarcity zone, therefore making it a good vehicle for storing wealth.
I believe the same thing will happen if we discover more reserves, either on Earth or in space in asteroids. In the short term, gold will become more of a commodity as supply increases greatly (especially if we mine asteroids, there is literally more gold in a few asteroids than all reserves on Earth) and demand stays the same, but as the population increases, demand will increase and balance out again to the point of scarcity 100 years or so later down the road. So the mining argument in my opinion is bullshit. History tells a different story.
There are actually more chances of us discovering another scarce element as unique as gold and replacing gold with that element than with btc. While physical might not have as much value in a digital world, we are still talking about wealth preservation here. We want to
see our wealth, not just some numbers on the screen. We want to protect it
physically, not digitally where everything can be hacked. Currency WILL inevitably move on the blockchain, but currency is not wealth preservation. Currency is used by every human in every trade, but gold / btc is not.
I think we will expand the list of assets from 2 to 3, with btc (or another crypto with same scarcity effects if btc goes down the drain) being the digital
alternative to gold. But replacing it?? No, not anytime soon, 100% won't happen within our lifetime, or probably even 2-3 other lifetimes after that. The world changes rapidly, but not as fast as you think.
