Not the answer you are looking for....but the answer is 'none of the above' nodbody knows. I've seen sites ranking #1 for many months with a kw density of 15%....when I've seen other keywords used at around 1.5% and ranking #1.
I really dont think one size fits all.
You should also understand that there is a difference between visible kw density and overall kw density.
visible=text on your page that a visitor sees
overall=your entire page including alt tags, links, metatags etc
I tend to analyse a kw using market samurai, see what the competition is doing, and aim for .5% higher.