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When is the next recession going to hit? 2 years ? 5 years?

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by Figrole, Jul 4, 2017.

  1. Figrole

    Figrole Regular Member

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    Hey guys,


    Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle. There are ups and downs, just as with everything.


    When looking at stock market growth over the last few years its easy to see that as a whole its continuously on an upswing.


    With the introduction to these new crypto currencies and their absolutely COLLOSAL growth, in conjunction with the banks starting to lend money back out to people who can't afford it (known from personal experience, have a friend that says it's starting to look like before- so many loans going unpaid), is it only a matter of time until it goes to shit again?
     
  2. faithjhung

    faithjhung Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    My guess? This year or 2018. US banks are over leveraged. It's just a matter of time.
     
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  3. bartosimpsonio

    bartosimpsonio Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    Well 2008 is 9 years ago, so everyone's expecting a slowdown any time now.

    But things aren't always that predictable. For example, if North Korea does something stupid, everything can change.
     
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  4. Sherbert Hoover

    Sherbert Hoover Jr. Executive VIP Jr. VIP

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  5. JamaicanMoose

    JamaicanMoose Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    Whenever dogecoin can no longer fund a NASCAR car sponsorship
     
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  6. umerjutt00

    umerjutt00 Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    The FED is thinking of reducing its balance sheet.
    http://www.investopedia.com/insights/how-will-fed-reduce-balance-sheet/

    Beginning in late 2008, the Fed began large-scale purchases of assets such as U.S. treasuries and government-supported mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to stave off a complete collapse of the financial system...

    If they start to reduce the balance sheet along with rising interest rates, we will get another recession.
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/fed-...ppens-why-it-matters-what-could-go-wrong.html
     
  7. jackydaniels14

    jackydaniels14 Regular Member

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    When the world bank owners will decide, then it will be the recession. Or when they want to destroy more countries just to save the dollar, who knows
     
  8. bartosimpsonio

    bartosimpsonio Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    It's very possible. I think that's what everyone is betting on lately.
     
  9. randybishop

    randybishop Elite Member

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    BUY GOLD!
    BUY CRYPTOCURRENCY!

    *smh*
     
  10. Lutherblissett

    Lutherblissett Power Member

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    As long as the spending spree can continue and the world believes its indefinite. The used car salesman president is promising a massive injection of capital in the form of gov spending and repatriating taxes. Keep that bubble inflating. . anything is possible for a period of time, but when the pop comes this time, I feel its going to be really nasty.

    All that aside second longest stock bubble of all time, and they are running it like they almost want to bust the whole monetary system. As for crypto currency I dunno there is a mad rush for it, but its currently a bad unit of value as it can't keep a consistent value. It waves fear all over, good currency holds persistent value, while something like bitcoin is more like a security who may be worth .03 in a few years or 300k. Hardly something I'd put all my assets in. Not to mention if the history of digital holds its normally the second wave of a new idea with a concurrent event that becomes the giant. Anyone using hotbot, friendster, realplayer, these days? (could be wrong on this, but its my gut)
     
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  11. jathom

    jathom Newbie

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    everyone talking about crypto currency. I feel as if I am far left behind. I could not participate in the surge rally
     
  12. distym

    distym Newbie

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    Even now is not too late ;)
     
  13. distym

    distym Newbie

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    Some countries will be in recession soon or are already in recession. Countries like India seem to have huge layoffs in IT sector due to the H1B changes.
    If you mean American recession then probably in 2018 or 2019.
     
  14. Lutherblissett

    Lutherblissett Power Member

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    It might not be too late, but it might be too early. The last time bitcoin surged this hard from maybe $30 to $1k it then dropped back to 1/5th its value before this rally. . . could end up trading back at any price point in any direction. I'd feel terrible to say yeah buy em, then watch a guy sink a ton in at 2.5k and turn out to be worth $300 in 2018.I mean for one to see the 10 fold increase that just happened over the past year bitcoins will need to trade at $25,000 in about 6 mos (not to mention there has already been a slight retreat). Maybe its not fair because I'm quoting bitcoin, perhaps an another lower priced alternative is a decent risk/reward move. I just feel after the surge.. there is often the crash. Where were all these pro crypto's in the middle of 2015? Be smart, hold there is more bull (as the pres if full of it) wait for retreat, strike.
     
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  15. irishengteacher

    irishengteacher Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    A good rule of thumb I use is when I hear of something it's probably at its absolute peak. Lord knows I'm usually the last to know about anything.
     
  16. waterworks

    waterworks Junior Member

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    Seems like the billion dollar question.

    Of course if any of us could predict that, we'd probably be wealthy already. 2008 makes for a great case study. Look at all the financial data 5 years prior and a 3-5 years after and study it like mad. Don't forget to account for wars, overseas conflicts, and overall consumer confidence when looking at the numbers. There are some good articles out there that cover key indicators.

    http://traderhq.com/5-indicators-that-foretold-the-2008-crash/

    My guess is within 2 years, which is why I've held off on buying a new home. Should be a buyers market after the crash with plummeted values again, although probably not the extreme that happened in 2008.
     
  17. jazzc

    jazzc Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    I highly doubt that, although it is really important to the outcome how it's going to be handled (relatively smooth vs steep hill).
     
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  18. bonerlicious

    bonerlicious BANNED BANNED

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    I'm so sick and tired of everyone predicting a recession. jfc I've been in a recession since I was a teenager in the 90s. I sure haven't gone hungry or homeless but I am a higher than average intelligent specimen who isn't a whiny loser.
     
  19. Ivex

    Ivex Junior Member

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    There is no guess here. If you want to be >51% correct about economy near term evolution, stay away from gurus and just be focused on 2 things mainly :

    * Australian economy : because its growth/decline is perfectly correlated to world economy since 100 years, with 6/9 months advance. Perfect barometer.

    * Q4 Cargos shipping loading agendas from CN to "nameyourworldseaport" : very good barometer of Christmas purchase level from importers and retailers inventory level. Gives you perfect FCMG snapshot.
     
  20. mickyfu

    mickyfu Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    When Google becomes self aware in the next three months.