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Sports ( Baseball ) Arbitage System

Discussion in 'Making Money' started by zulu490, Jun 14, 2009.

  1. zulu490

    zulu490 Newbie

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    Hi Guys,

    I found this system.
    I've not tested it yet but theoritycally it looks workable.
    Please give your comments on this system.

    BASEBALL
    ---------
    The game that always plays to a finish and there is never a draw.
    Do you know that there are over 2400 games in the regular baseball season?
    Thanks to this system I see 2400 winning games.
    During a regular season at baseball each team plays 162 games.

    In the 2007 season the highest winning team won 96 games and the lowest won 66.
    To me that means that the highest winning team made 96 x Target profit and the lowest winning team made 66 x target profit.
    The best teams win 3 out of 5 games and the worst wins 2 out of 5 games. The important thing to remember is EVERY team WINS.
    There are 30 teams in the baseball leagues and every one of them wins games.

    By betting each team until they win the target profit then you will have 2400x target profit by the end of the season.
    Don’t believe me then look at the following example where the same teams play each other 10 times. You may think that by betting two teams in the same game then your returns match your bet.
    Wrong your winning team returns a profit and the other will return a profit eventually. (Use a target profit of £2)

    TEAM A Bet Return TEAM B Bet Return
    Game 1 £2 £4 £2 £0
    Game 2 £2 £4 £4 £0
    Game 3 £2 £4 £8 £0
    Game 4 £2 £0 £16 £32
    Game 5 £4 £8 £2 £0
    Game 6 £2 £0 £4 £8
    Game 7 £4 £0 £2 £4
    Game 8 £8 £16 £2 £0
    Game 9 £2 £4 £4 £0
    Game 10 £2 £0 £8 £16

    Total Bet : £82
    Total Return : £100
    Profit : £18

    As you can see, even when teams are playing each other all the time,
    and as long as you keep your target profit the same and don’t panic when a team has a losing streak then you will find that every team makes you a winner and every game brings a return.

    There are 15 games every day and if you have a target profit of £2 for every team then as the season progresses you will find that you have made £30 a day every day and about £4800 by the end of the season.

    To increase your profit further then consider using handicap betting for the underdog.
    I.e. Team 1 are favourites at 4/6
    Team 2 are underdogs at 11/8 but are 9/10 with a 2.5 run start
    If you bet team 1 to return your target profit as normal and bet team 2 with a 2.5 run start then if team 1 beats team 2 by one or two runs then both teams win returning you twice your target profit on one game.


    * A word of caution.
    Don’t bet right up until the end of the season as you could end up with a team on a small losing streak and your stake cannot be recovered until the following season. Plan to stop with about 10 days of play left.

    Be careful because the bookmakers will know this bet and recognise it if you keep winning.
     
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  2. zulu490

    zulu490 Newbie

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    hi guys,

    any suggestion for this method
     
  3. acesUP

    acesUP Registered Member

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    Hi seems to work in principle! However would the market not determine if your would win or lose. ie te odds on a team would vary from game to game, or do you just keep betting until your team wins, all the time trying to win £2 plus your stake up until that point?

    If so this could be awesome for regular winnings!
     
  4. smartguy

    smartguy Newbie

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    I hate to seem stupid, but can you give me a bit more clarity on how this actually works? Thanks.
     
  5. openfire

    openfire Newbie

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    This system is the Martingale system. If your team loses, the next game you double your bet. If they lose again, you double your bet again, and so on, until your team wins. You eventually win all your money back plus the original bet. If the losing streak is long enough you would eventually go broke before you could make your money back. For example, if your initial bet was $2, and the team lost, the next bet would be $4, then $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512, $1024, etc until the team wins, then you go back to $2.

    The problem with this system is that if you bet every team, you have to hope none of them ever go through a 10 plus game losing streak or you could be dropping your life savings on one game.

    It only works in theory if you have infinite wealth to begin with, in which case, why bother betting $2 a game.
     
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  6. hwolfpack6

    hwolfpack6 BANNED BANNED

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    Your logic seems slightly, slightly flawed. The moneyline for games changes...it's not always Even...if the Los Angeles Dodgers were playing the Washington Nationals in Los Angeles, you can bet that for a $1 bet, you will only win back $0.30 or so.

    And openfire is right, martingale doesn't really work. I used the system for a site called Moola a year ago or so.
     
  7. openfire

    openfire Newbie

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    I forgot to mention this point as well. It would only work if every game had an even betting line which it doesn't as hwolfpack6 pointed out. And even if you played the point spread for even money, then you would get burned on the juice, usually 10% for every loss.

    You could try this in Roulette in a Casino, ie bet on Black every time and double your bet when you lose. But even if you had unlimited money to keep doubling your bets, you eventually hit the table limit and the system crashes.
     
  8. nam6641

    nam6641 Supreme Member

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    this is called the monte cristo system... it works fine as long as:

    1. you have enough to keep doubling down and can ride out a long losing streak if need be

    and

    2. whoever you are placing bets with will take large bets if you need to double down 10 times in a row.
     
  9. CasinoJack

    CasinoJack BANNED BANNED

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    as a gambler myself,this system is fun on paper, but is crap

    just have fun....There are other ways to make money but after having almost 10,000 players, i have seen almost every system come and go....
     
  10. hwolfpack6

    hwolfpack6 BANNED BANNED

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    The Count of Monte Cristo is such an epic book.
     
  11. unlimitedpostings

    unlimitedpostings BANNED BANNED

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    Yeah, I bet baseball everyday one season and there's no way this would work. The line is different for every game and some games a $2 bet on one team would return $0.50. You can always take the + or - 1.5 runs, but even then, the lines still are not even very often and that takes the 96 and 66 win teams and makes it irrelevant.

    This may make money in the short term in a game of 50/50 chance, but definitely not baseball.
     
  12. goranco

    goranco Registered Member

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    It a good idea on the paper but in theory it does not work for betting on sporting events because odds change from game to game. Having said that there is a game in which this system works to is perfection. It is a ROULETTE. Bet either on RED or BLACK.

    Example; we will bet on RED only

    bet 1 $2 lose
    bet 2 $4 lose
    bet 3 $8 lose

    so in 3 bets you lost $14, however odds in roulette are 2:1

    bet 4 $16 win

    So you end up betting $30 but you get $32 back after one win, making you $2 :)

    By the way i would suggest you wait until either color hits twice in a row and then bet on the opposite color, giving you more of a chance of winning from the first hand.