Profits with Speculation – Horse Racing AI Model Journey of Money Management

Super Bowl Speculation Day - ChatGPT vs. Deepseek - which prediction model will be more accurate?



Hi All!

Update: I've been moving along with this, experimenting, modifying, backtesting and all. I've decided not to do a service, because, quite frankly, life's too short.

So, today, we'll be doing an experiment to see WHICH MODEL will be more accurate for today's American sensation (an America, only), The Super Bowl - which is neither 'super', or having anything to do with a bowl.

For us, here who like to make money online - it's an opportunity for a profit day.

***
NemoTheOne steps into Speculation headquarters. The AI STAFF (aka Chatgpt) is ready. All hands on deck, today, people.
Lets take a look at (a portion of) the feature engineering model, or model structure, or "prompt", we'll be beginning with today:



Ok, ok. Thanks looks very nice sounding. But, let's get practical. Is there anything in there for last minute changes? Maybe S. Barkley doesnt' feel well - or is feeling great. Is there anything in there about real time data?



Oh. Okay. I see. Okay, then. I'll be on my way, I'll let the staff do what it needs to, and I'll be back with another update.

Bet responsbility, gentlepeople

Good day, I said good day.

I'll be posting some stuff, for gicks and kiggles - let's make some money.
One note. I won't be doing much of a "Deep Seek" comparison. Instead I'll be doig various prompts/approaches/analyses that I've been doing.

The reason is because, there's now no doubt that Deep Seek is really, quite literally, trained on open ai. Deepseek gave me the EXACT same results, just about, as GPT. Well, that part of the experiement is over.

Deep seek? Deep this!

From the view of a non-programmer, originally freelance writer:
Firstly, everything is handwritten, unless I indicate that it's the GPT. Even the randomly sudden creative writing parts are just me freeballin freewriting.

2. Please excuse the repeated posts if that's bothering anyone. Shorter, quicker, updates help me organise and share more. I promise I'm not working on my post count. I stopped, in '10. Or was it '11? Wait no - it was on, or around the time of the end of the world - that was 2012.

3. With that said, hopefully someone with vast knowledge in the programming and ai fields can take these concepts farther - individually, and/or collectively. As a digression, horseracing simulation is far easier, but also easier to lose because of the quickness of "a race". This mainstream 'gambling culture' (banned word. We say speculation) that's been created, around parlays is really quite fascinating to me. Anyway, I digress.

4. I'll be sharing some simulation results. Please implement safely. These are not "locks" etc etc etc etc. In fact, as you've seen, and will see more closley now, the idea is to run many different simulations and integration/modifify the info accordingly.

5. If anyone isn't keen to the 'basics' of parlays I'll share - it's very simple. +200, 1 to 2 leggers for long term profit. But, yeah, well that's no fun. But I'll share more if that helps anyone. Again, take these ideas and combine them with your focuses.

Ok, enough of all that.

So then there's this:
Spoken with the least knowledge of any type of programming, we have this thing called
Bayesian modelling - In this context, it allows for the program/prompt etc to adapt/learn in 'real time'. For me, this is a cheat code, as I feel like I'm 'cheating' by bettnig live. Now, let's not kid ourselves - the sportsbook ALWAYS have the advantage.
________________________________________________
We begin, this time, by gathering intelligence, aka data. We go to YOUTUBE. Copy and paste transcripts from people talking about the games. Tell the AI Data Scientist to look into it - with the mindset of a secret service agent and the - no, seriously...



We're using 4o here. We'll be using o1 for the Apprentice. Mabye o3, just to be part of the ai wheel of evolution.
Then, it spits out something like this - feel free to use this, feed it into your GPT. Try things out. See how it feels about the insights. Here's the GPT report - well, part of it....

SECTION I: SUMMARY OF EXTERNAL ANALYSES​

1. Rich Eisen Show – Marshall Faulk’s Insights​

• Host & Guest: Rich Eisen interviews Marshall Faulk (Super Bowl Champion, Pro Football Hall of Famer).
• Insights & Key Topics:
  
  • Saquon Barkley’s impact: Faulk considers Barkley a generational talent who can dictate defenses by forcing them to stack the box. Draws parallels to his own career when paired with elite receivers like Isaac Bruce & Torry Holt.
  • Jalen Hurts' dual-threat ability: Chiefs can't just focus on Barkley because Hurts is a runner.
  • Super Bowl nerves & preparation: Faulk recounts how the emotion and energy of the Super Bowl can drain a player before kickoff.
  • Chiefs Defensive Strategy: Steve Spagnuolo (Chiefs DC) is known for creative game plans. Will he aim to stop Barkley first and dare Hurts to win with his arm?
  • Chris Jones vs. Jalen Carter Battle: Whoever dominates between these two disruptors in the interior D-line may determine the outcome.
  • Mahomes as the ‘New Brady’: The Chiefs should not be given a final drive opportunity—Mahomes has developed the clutch factor.
• Faulk’s Non-Prediction Prediction:
  
  • He wants the Eagles to win because of the narrative of a dominant run game leading a Super Bowl team.
  • However, he acknowledges how difficult it is to bet against Mahomes.

---

2. Secondary Broadcast – Betting & Player Matchups Discussion​

• Hosts & Guests: Panel discussion featuring Malcolm Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, Matt Patricia.
• Key Points:
  
  • Betting Lines & Prop Insights:
    
    • Eagles Slight Favorites (-110 to +100 shift) – Early money leans Philly.
    • Most Popular Player Prop: Dallas Goedert over 40.5 yards (has risen to 49.5 in some books).
    • Longshot MVP Bets: Kicker MVP (requires ~4-5 FGs + game-winner).
  • Tactical Matchup Breakdowns:
    
    • Chiefs likely to blitz heavily on early downs to disrupt Philly’s run game.
    • Eagles' secondary concerns: Can they hold up for 60 minutes? Playing more man coverage than usual could backfire.
    • Patrick Mahomes' mobility: Will be a game-changer against the Eagles' man-heavy scheme.
    • Chris Jones’ Role: Could target the right guard as his weakest matchup.
    • Nolan Smith (Eagles Edge Defender) a critical X-Factor: Will be tasked with containing Mahomes on rollouts.
    • Turnover Worries for Hurts: If Spags blitzes early and Hurts rolls out too fast, there’s a real chance he throws a bad pick.
  • Sentiment & Momentum Factors:
    
    • Eagles’ front isn’t 100%: Some injuries and illness concerns.
    • Kansas City’s efficiency on 3rd downs (especially 3rd & short) is elite—Philadelphia needs to force them into long third downs.
    • Kadarius Toney & Rashee Rice are key to Chiefs’ ability to break zones.
• Predictions:
  
  • One analyst likes a defensive grind early (leaning under 1H total).
  • Another suggests Saquon Barkley will have a major reception play (big screen or wheel route).
  • Justin Watson (KC WR, longshot anytime TD bet at 12-to-1) could be a sneaky pick.

---

3. The Game Plan w/ Bill Belichick-Inspired Breakdown​

#####

Hi, it's me NemoTheOne again.
Anyhow. So, then we use OUR SIMULATOR. We run it, and it spits out some results. This was like round one - so again, take this data and integrate with yours. GPT is quite an amazing tool.:

ALL SPORTS SIMULATOR 2025: SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS​

MISSION STATEMENT​

The All Sports Simulator 2025 is an advanced sports analytics system that integrates cutting-edge machine learning, Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian models, and neural networks to produce high-confidence, data-driven predictions for Super Bowl LVIII featuring the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (02/09/2025). This analysis provides:

• Pre-Game Analysis (Team Form, Tactical Matchups, Key Factors)
• Correct Score Predictions with probabilistic confidence intervals
• Player Performance Forecasts
• Optimized Multi-Leg Parlay Betting Strategies
• Sensitivity & Scenario Analyses (Weather, Injuries, Real-Time Adjustments)

---

SUPER BOWL LVIII: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES​

1. Pre-Game Analysis​

Key External Factors:​

• Weather: 57°F, partly cloudy, winds at 7 mph (minimal impact on passing).
• Injuries:
  • Chiefs: Travis Kelce (questionable, ankle) → Likely to play at 80-90%.
  • Eagles: Haason Reddick (probable), but Darius Slay (hamstring) is at 70%.

Matchup Analysis:​

• KC's Offensive Scheme vs. Eagles' Secondary:
  • Eagles’ cover-2 scheme struggles against intermediate crossing routes.
  • Mahomes leads the league in EPA per play against zone defenses (+0.24 EPA/play).
• Eagles' Run Game vs. KC’s Front 7:
  • KC allows 4.3 YPC (11th in NFL); however, Eagles’ O-line creates 2.3 YBC (yards before contact) (Best in NFL).
  • Isaiah Pacheco (KC RB) vs. Eagles’ front: Eagles allow 5.1 YPC to outside runs (28th in NFL).

---

2. Correct Score Predictions​

Simulation Results (Monte Carlo 100,000 Runs)​

Final Projected Score:

• Chiefs 27, Eagles 24 (21.4% likelihood | Mahomes game-winning drive probability: 38%)
• Over/Under Projection: 50.5 total points (60% confidence on UNDER hitting if line is set at 51.5+).

So, on and so forth.

Now, that's just the "baseline" data.

Interesting post. I’ve done quite a lot of experimentation with horse racing and greyhound racing. Last year I ran over 10k bets based on a model I created which just ran on autopilot - you might want to check out Betangel for automaton. What I will say, using a gpt to predict outcomes is not a winning strategy - purely because unless your using a RAG with the ai, your not going to be able to use past performance or jockey/trainer stats otherwise - and the big problem there is getting hold of up to date data - which the industry likes to hide behind paywalls. I even scraped 6 months of race outcomes and it still wasn’t enough because it’s almost impossible to get the full data - ie odds data alongside performance data. What did work with gpt was amalgamating third party tips and analysis with odds data - it made predicting a place (not necessarily the win) a lot more successful.

One winning strategy I did find - was purchasing access to the tracker data. The horses literally run with a gps tracker which you can track live on the tracks and see very clearly which horse is in front, speed and cadence - which of course the bookmakers have access to, so having this is a huge advantage, especially when video feeds are typically 10 seconds or more delayed - this is real advantage when betting via an exchange. You can literally just automate your bets based on the gps feed: ie place bets on front runners a certain distance from the finish line at certain odds,

Antiwork said:

Interesting post. I’ve done quite a lot of experimentation with horse racing and greyhound racing. Last year I ran over 10k bets based on a model I created which just ran on autopilot - you might want to check out Betangel for automaton. What I will say, using a gpt to predict outcomes is not a winning strategy - purely because unless your using a RAG with the ai, your not going to be able to use past performance or jockey/trainer stats otherwise - and the big problem there is getting hold of up to date data - which the industry likes to hide behind paywalls. I even scraped 6 months of race outcomes and it still wasn’t enough because it’s almost impossible to get the full data - ie odds data alongside performance data. What did work with gpt was amalgamating third party tips and analysis with odds data - it made predicting a place (not necessarily the win) a lot more successful.

One winning strategy I did find - was purchasing access to the tracker data. The horses literally run with a gps tracker which you can track live on the tracks and see very clearly which horse is in front, speed and cadence - which of course the bookmakers have access to, so having this is a huge advantage, especially when video feeds are typically 10 seconds or more delayed - this is real advantage when betting via an exchange. You can literally just automate your bets based on the gps feed: ie place bets on front runners a certain distance from the finish line at certain odds,

Click to expand...

Very interesting.
Actually using GPT with horse racing is a winning strategy, for me, because I am focused on maiden races.

I don't need all of that other stuff you mentioned. Just just the form data, my weighted features, and workout history. All accessable for free.

Can you send me the full text for the horse model please. I have a few working models. Id like to test it against mine. I can also share with you.

Next update will be specific test results and back testing. But first, a direction. This "article" was created with CHATGPT. This took me about 30 min total to complete. 15 min to get applicable data for the gpt to draw from. The other 15 min to put it together. There was wine involved - so, most likely, that time can get lessended. Can you tell this article is GPT written? I mean, I told you - so, how does this look contrasted to what you've seen??

###############################
article begin (*KDP PUBLISHING enters the chat*)

Why New York is the Greatest Country in the World​

There’s a peculiar bit of folklore whispered among the travelers, dreamers, and unsuspecting pigeons that flock to a stretch of land often confused for an actual city. It’s the place with a bigger population than some nations, a legendary skyline that practically polishes itself every morning, and more swirling stories than a yarn shop on discount day. We call it New York, though, by rights, it should probably be granted its own seat at the United Nations. After all, countries have flags, cultures, and spirited debates. New York has all that, plus a signature brand of coffee so strong it’ll keep you awake well past doomsday. If that doesn’t say “greatest country in the world,” I’m not sure what does.

Think about it: any place that can fit eight million humans onto a patch of land this compact, all trying to squeeze themselves onto the same 6 train at precisely 8:45 a.m., has clearly evolved its own set of laws. I once saw a sign in Times Square that said, “If you can’t sleep here, join the club.” I figured it might be some leftover advertisement, but the message felt almost constitutional — like an inalienable right to endless excitement and unspoken exhaustion. Entire nations revolve around lesser slogans. And while some people might question the seriousness of calling Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, and Staten Island a single unified “country,” those folks probably haven’t tried paying rent here. The unique currency of the land is monthly fees and coffee loyalty cards, and it demands unwavering patriotism.

Let’s launch our official expedition through the enclaves of this sovereign territory by starting in Times Square, a neon wonderland that could out-glow the Las Vegas Strip on any given Tuesday. Here, I once met a man dressed head-to-toe in ill-fitting superhero spandex. He told me — and I kid you not — “Welcome to the center of the universe, buddy.” That greeting felt suspiciously like a passport stamp. You might stand there blinking in the staggering overdose of billboards and deduce that Times Square is a tourist trap. But I see it as the capital city of this so-called “country,” where citizens from every corner of the planet congregate to watch the advertisements blink, the traffic stall, and the Elmo impersonators form their own local government of plush governance. Have you ever tried to negotiate a photo with three different furry costumed creatures, all at once, while you juggle an overpriced pretzel? That’s diplomacy at its finest.

For the next leg of the journey, wander into Central Park, which by some miracles of cosmic invention still exists as a green oasis in the middle of all that steel. This is Tangent #1: a quick reflection on the squirrels. The squirrels here are, shall we say, confidence embodied. They saunter up to you demanding a peanut and your social security number, as if they own the place. Actually, come to think of it, maybe they do. The great green lawn is the only place in New York where you might forget you’re trapped in a labyrinth of skyscrapers. But just as you start to drift into a serene daydream, a faint siren or the throaty hum of a thousand taxi engines will remind you that you’re in the throbbing heart of a metropolis disguised as a nature preserve. If that’s not evidence enough of statehood, consider how meticulously the park has been laid out. Governments go out of their way to provide recreational areas for their citizens — New York has an entire chunk of prime real estate dedicated to joggers, picnickers, and rowboats that occasionally bump into each other.

Of course, some might question the notion that a single “country” can have a subway system built on more squeaks and squeals than sense. To that, I say: show me another place whose public transport is basically a subterranean microcosm, complete with traveling musicians, aspiring dancers, and a handful of folks delivering comedic monologues. Where else can you get into a debate with a complete stranger about the best pizza slice, only to realize you’re both heading uptown to the same late-night joint? This is what I call the national railway of New York — every ride is a snapshot of millions of everyday dramas unfolding beneath the city’s asphalt kingdom. If that’s not government-funded entertainment, it should be.

Now let me lead you on Tangent #2: I recently stumbled upon an old text referencing “300 Captions That Define the City Lights,” basically an anthology of bite-sized witticisms that attempt to capture the unbridled chaos of this place. Imagine that — 300 distinct ways of describing the sheer spectacle of Manhattan’s glow, the way the skyline sparkles like a disco ball that decided to retire but just couldn’t. These captions recounted everything from Walt Whitman’s poetic salute to the sidewalks, to anonymous lines about how the pigeons alone deserve a seat at the city council. Reading them felt akin to leafing through a dictionary for a language that only emerges after midnight. If a mere city can inspire that much commentary, you’d best believe it’s punching above its weight on the world stage.

The question you might ask yourself is: can a real country exist without a sense of mass hysteria about bagels? Possibly not. If you tried to open a subpar bagel shop in any other region, people might complain. Here, if you plop a mediocre bakery on the corner, you can expect a near-uprising. I once witnessed a line so long that it could have qualified as a protest march. The cause? A rumored shortage of everything bagels. There were tears. There was shouting. There was something akin to a civil discourse, except it was held at the top of everyone’s lungs. Doesn’t that sound like a society so deeply knit together by tradition that it’s basically a national meltdown?

Let’s pivot to the nightlife, a dimension that puts the “never sleeps” mantra in luminous context. This is Tangent #3: I have a friend who tried to plan a “chill evening” in the East Village. The plan was to grab a quiet drink, maybe read a book — something sophisticated. Ten minutes in, he found himself roped into a spontaneous jazz session involving a clarinet, a banjo, and a dancing golden retriever. Was it a legit dog? Was it a hallucination? Either way, normal bedtimes lost all meaning. Countries have capital cities known for a vibrant nightlife, but New York takes that concept, runs it through a confetti cannon, and sets the aftermath to a pulsing beat. If you happen to be feeling sleepy at 3 a.m., you’ll probably see a swarm of folks ordering artisanal doughnuts or waltzing their way into the next corner bar. It’s not insomnia, it’s national pride.

You might wonder: are all these random stories of bagels and subways just a scattered attempt to exaggerate some city’s allure? Let me ask you: how else do you classify a single location that’s simultaneously the backdrop for countless Hollywood epics, the founding place of a thousand comedic styles, and the star of an entire library’s worth of Instagram captions? Does your average city get entire movies named after it, or comedic talk show hosts referencing it as an entire mood? Show me a second “ordinary” city that’s known for both five-star dining and the best corner pizzeria you’ve ever tasted, sometimes on the very same block. And if you can find that, show me one that runs 24 hours a day like a caffeinated hamster on an eternal treadmill. Now that’s a place worthy of its own passport stamp.

Let’s not forget the boroughs, each of which might as well be its own province. Manhattan is the glossy capital, Brooklyn is the creative stronghold, Queens is a sprawling mosaic of languages, the Bronx is the living pulse of certain music styles and unstoppable energy, and Staten Island is that cousin who’s cool in ways you didn’t see coming (though you might have to catch a ferry to believe it). All these distinct personalities gather under one banner. Is that not the epitome of a nation’s cultural diversity? If you draw parallels to an actual federal structure, you’d find that each borough has its own vibe, economy, dialect, and occasionally an entire sense of fashion that’s just waiting to be discovered if you dare to wander off the beaten track.

There’s also the matter of immigrating to this “country.” Some folks move here from across the globe, lured by the promise that if they can just figure out the difference between an express and a local train, they’ll find fame, fortune, or at least a decent slice of pizza at 2 a.m. Others come from across the country, seduced by the luminous idea that “if you can make it here…” Let’s just say that old phrase is so widely quoted, it might as well be etched on a national crest. And in many ways, it’s not just an inspirational slogan: the city has a magical ability to test your endurance, your patience, and your sense of humor, all while feeding you bagels the size of frisbees. Isn’t that a rite of passage not unlike what you’d experience when assimilating to a new land?

If you need more proof, consider the everyday behaviors that mark true citizenship. For instance, only a local “national” of New York can cross a busy street with the walk sign still red, all while ignoring 15 different horns blasting in the background. Only a New Yorker would pay an eye-watering sum for a pint-sized apartment, yet brag about how it’s practically a steal because it’s within walking distance of a grocery store and three artisanal coffee shops. How many other places can you name where folks voluntarily choose to stand in lines so long they vanish into the horizon for some limited-edition confection that typically sells out within the first hour? That’s dedication, that’s loyalty, that’s something more profound than mere city pride.

Are you, by chance, daydreaming right now about gliding through the canyons of midtown, or strolling into a Lower East Side bar that’s rumored to be “so hole-in-the-wall, it’s practically subterranean?” Have you ever considered that every block here forms a chapter in the city’s own epic novel, each one saturated with so many subplots that you could spin them into an anthology? It’s no wonder an entire “New York Captions” dataset can exist — this territory thrives on turning daily life into memorable snapshots. And as each corner reveals another one-of-a-kind slice of the urban tapestry, you realize that calling this place a mere city is an insult to its mighty sprawl of identity.

After all this, you might still be unconvinced that New York stands apart not just in hustle and bustle, but in the intangible realm of placehood. Some folks will cling to the notion that it’s “just a city.” But you and I both know that if tomorrow someone declared independence and started printing money with the Statue of Liberty’s face on it, people would line up to exchange their dollars for these new “Liberty Bucks” without blinking an eye. You’d have ambassadors from every corner of the globe seeking an alliance with this unstoppable juggernaut of culture, commerce, and comedic side-eye. Truth be told, the rest of the world might just concede that New York’s been a separate nation all along.

And so we arrive at the final stop on this ride through the realm of endless bagels, skyscraper canyons, jazz saxophones at 3 a.m., squirrels with suspicious motives, and more languages than a traveling circus. There’s no official medal for surviving a night in Times Square or for learning to ignore the scent of questionable street-corner hot dogs. But there should be. You might say the reward is intangible — an ongoing membership in the biggest show on Earth, where the act never really ends and the audience occasionally jumps onstage. All that’s left is to step back, admire the skyline, and let your eyes adjust to the neon tapestry shining brighter than any star-strewn sky.

[So, now you see how New York is far more than just a ‘city’ — it’s its very own country — no, no — it’s its own UNIVERSE]

Update: Hi 2025.

So, here we are.
Current Approach After All That We've Learned

Hi gentlepeople. I'm so thrilled that so many of you have been following this, and have enjoyed the lot of you that's even reached out to me over the last XXX months.

So, after starting in horse racing , I branched off into the "mainstream" world of major sports speculation, as you see from this journey. I've been refining and tracking and backtesting and all that good stuff from then, until now.

As a reminder, I knew NOTHING about FanDuel, Draft Kings etc etc. I just happen to enjoy the eccletic mix of data science, sports analytics and video games.

So after all of that
1) Lotto Parlays are almost always a loosing cause. But they are fun. However, with my simulation etc, I would only consider a 4+leg a 'lotto' pick.
2) "Safe" bets, are those, 'single bets', (which I still can't bring myself to do, consistently), or 2-3 leg parlays.

So
I aim for a "safe" 2-leg parlay - then use the simulator to find anomalies for that 'third' wildcard.

Then, I achor that/those 2-leg parlays with any other spotted anamolies.

So
YESTERDAY was my FIRST 'return' to the 'mainstream' parlay world. For the most part of the first 2 months of this year, I went back into horse racing, which is GREAT, FUN, ACCURATE - but it (a race) just comes and goes too fast. It's an easy trap to burn money, like lotto parlays.

So
With the above method (safe 2-leg anchor + wildcard), we got this:




So now, it's a method. It's the 'first method' that's worked for me last year, then I did a deep rabbit hole dive into these 6,7 leg parlays, after hitting quite a few of them - but then, I see people who's been doing this for YEARS, who cry (and understandably so - I'd be gutted, too!!) about these constant '1 leg misses', or 'XXX player messed it up for me...'

Now, how does the simulator catch those 'wildcards'. Well, firstly, most of the time they are ATS, or SLEEPERS or ROOKIES.
2ndly, "IN GAME BETTING' is quite awesome, and something I avoided because it felt like "cheating". I know, I know. Silly. Remember, I'm not a gambler, I just like analyzing this stuff because I have some sort of pattern recognition thing going on that needs to be fulfilled - hahaha

Enclosing. Let's take a look at the above. It was an ATS NCAAB Northen Illinois (+600) win that did it.
Now, I wish I could explain how this was found as meticulous as I can write about the prepartion.

So, I'll just have the robot explain:
Note: The analysis was done with a simulator I made with 4o.
Note: The below POST analysis was done with 4.5preview, after 4o gave me a nothing answer.








As a wise man (a friend who calls himself a data scientist) says "don't be afraid to take your profits."

So, hopefully you can take elements of this, apply it to what you're doing, and - well, MAKE MONEY ONLINE!

For clarity, because the model explained things I didn't.

Here's what I did/do.

Step 1: Go on YOUTUBE and get transcripts of people analyzing games. Let them do the heavy work.
Step 2: Plug the transcripts into the simulator. Have the model contrast these mere human insights. What does it agree with? What doesn't it? Where are the sleepers, ATS' etc etc. (Total time for steps one and 2 - about one hour)
Step 3: Read the reports - AIM for 2 legs at about +100, +200ish odds.

Take a very long smoke break (like hours). (optional)

Step 4: Find that upset moneyline, player prop, special bet etc etc.
Step 5: Like a confident chef, add different spices to those two legs on the plate. (See what I did there? Because legs are also chicken. Ok then.)

Step 5 (in English): Like a confident speculation analyst, add different 'wildcard(s)' to the safe bet(s).

If you notice, I put $15 on the 'safe' bet, and $5 on the wildcard. That way, if I 'only' get the safe bet, I still make a profit.
If I totally miss it, it's ok. Safe bets EVENTUALLY hit - unlike lotto parlays which, most often than not, "just miss that ONE leg for the big win"

Step 6 (optional): Start a BHW diary/journey, or some other external mirror, to help keep yourself accountable.

Super quick, but significant update.

Well, it's official. Now, this has my attention.
I actually wrote a really cool and in depth update - then I went to edit it, and hit "delete" by accident. Oh joy.

Anyway, with gpt 4.5 I've updated/enhanced etc all that, and will be completely, totally, on MLB like WHITE ON RICE.

I've extended this to a STOCKS FORECASTING MODEL, based on WD Gann principles from the mid 1960s or something. Anyway, it's a framework that "worked", but the dude did it by hand.

Enter 2025.

There's AI for that.

So, what I've done there is taken a "provable/workable format" and programmed it - or created a feature engineering/custom language learning model after it.

It works.

NemoTheOne said:

Super quick, but significant update.

Well, it's official. Now, this has my attention.
I actually wrote a really cool and in depth update - then I went to edit it, and hit "delete" by accident. Oh joy.

Anyway, with gpt 4.5 I've updated/enhanced etc all that, and will be completely, totally, on MLB like WHITE ON RICE.

I've extended this to a STOCKS FORECASTING MODEL, based on WD Gann principles from the mid 1960s or something. Anyway, it's a framework that "worked", but the dude did it by hand.

Enter 2025.

There's AI for that.

So, what I've done there is taken a "provable/workable format" and programmed it - or created a feature engineering/custom language learning model after it.

It works.

Click to expand...

Just as an addendum
This diary/journey is an awesome real-time observation as I ponder the different ways of extending monetization. I'm content with just sharing and giving ideas on this forum, as this forum is, most likely, literally why/how I make money online.

So / but - I have no patience to provide a "betting service". Of course, 2 weeks/days/minutes/months from now, I'll change my opinion back and forth. But, that takes the fun out of it.

My Primary Income
If you're just joining us my signup date is in 2009. YouButt was like 3 year old.

YouTube.

First post explains
I write/communicate on various platforms online and get paid for it. I'll roll out of bed, nose first, and will write.
As Isaac Asimov said "I wake up, start writing - until I' ready to sleep. Then I go to sleep. Next day, I do it again"

So, one day, I'm sending PEN PAL letters, then, the next day the internet comes and BLACKHAT starts early as I end up in a weird part of the early internet of hacking. Methodus Toolz, Theif?, Sub7? Anyone? Y3K RAT?

Naturally, I end up BlackHat style getting people to fill CREDIT CHECK OFFERS, under the BLACKHAT guides of "offering available flats/apartments on CRAIGLIST'.

Then, I advertised
"Live Streaming! WWE Wrestlemania!!!"
User comes
Fills out EDU offer (pays out $50ish and up per lead)
No worries
Sex, Drugs, and Rock N' Roll ate up those profits, and kicked me off the internet for the next like, 10 years.

NemoTheOne returns.
Kindle Dominance.

I was able to get about 5k/month. I have GRINGOMONKEY's diary to thank for that.

That lead me to a more "normal" - no, no, a more "legal" path of writing online as a freelancer, also using Fivver, Elance/Upwork etc.

So NOW, I write. That's my full time income.
So I'm explaining that to indicate that main income was NOT SPECULATION (for those people joining on page 8 etc).

But............
It's turning out that way.............

Key word is "WAS"

_____________________________________________________--

So now, after a SUCCESSFUL NBA CAMPAIGN, some of which has been documented here, I will be focusing on the (new/upcoming) baseball season. What's amazing is that I had/have VERY LITTLE INTEREST in basketball.

It's all about the data.

Get set for some very UNIQUE profit focused UPDATES.

This update is brought to you by:



And, so that's what NemoTheOne has been doing: Playing it through.

The captain of this ship, Nemo hasn't watched one full basketball game, like, ever. Heck, ask him what the difference is between a "technical" foul and a "flagrant" foul, he's answer something like, " Is the technical foul more scientific? Hence 'technical?'

Anyway.

NemoTheOne has called for a company wide meeting. This is different. He opened up the floor, to begin, with Q&A from his staff of data scientists and sports analysist. And, by 'staff of data scientists and sports analysists, we mean the tentacles of AI and language learning models.

Enough of that. Now, let's get to the dollars and sense.



I'd like to share with you our latest results:



As documented here, once again, and throughout this journey, our BASKETBALL GAME SIMULATION MODELS are incredibly accurate, rivaling the accuracy of our very first HORSE RACING PREDICTION MODEL, which started this whole journey about a year ago.

Now, I can't say it enough. I kinda like Basketball. It's cool. Yesterday was the first time I watched a game for more than a whole quarter because those 76ers almost pulled a moneyline upset. It's always nice to put faces to the data. That "Grimes" guy on the 76ers is a really prolific shooter. He's a "point guard", right?

However, now, with an extended budget, and after ON EYEAR, we'll be adding focus to a sport we actually like - BASEBALL . Today's opening day.

You (yes you, reading this) can create your own sports simulator, 'game predictor', or whatever you'd like to call it. I like the word simulator because I think it yields better results. AI takes language and etymology, very literally, I see. In other words, SIMULATION is more practical than "PREDICTION"

Or, for example, if you're using AI to write content, telling the AI to MIMIC or EMULATE human writing, will stand a better chance to evade content detectors, rather than telling the GPT to "Write like a human", for example.

Page 2/3, of 19!


And so on, and so forth!
Happy Money MAKING OPENING DAY!!

Hi.
First off, to anyone who's been in this "space" before, I'm doing this with all do respect. So, please don't take me mentioning that I have no idea who these players are as insulting. My point really is to indicate that ANYONE (who wants to make money online) who likes to do a little analysis can succeed at this to make money.

Okay, anyway, so part of what I'm learned to do is to focus on not so mainstream players.

Another thing I've learned is to not follow what other people do. I started off (a year ago) knowing nothing about the space. Then I started to pick up on things others were doing and failed miserably. Which is fine. It's part of the experience. But I digress.

So, part of my strategy in looking through the data is to focus on non-marque players, and to pick them based on mis-matches, fatigued scheduled players, or other opportunities (ie injured players etc)

So, MID game, we have these (not so popular) players doing well, having hit their targets early


Well. WTF.

I asked my staff of AI DATA SCIENTISTS - and by that, I mean, the browser tap that says "ChatGPT" -
"How did you pick these numbers? These odds are high!
I mean....these picks are "EV" (using the lingo)

Well, Generative AI says.....


Ok. Fine, generative AI, if that is you're your real name. What about Zaccharie Risacher. You picked him, too!


And you get the point.
Plus, we also extended to EUROLEAGUE (Paris Basketball) for some key "-110" odds hits.

Just wanted to provide a "real time update" as these tickets head HEAD FIRST towards ca$$$$hing.

If I can do it, ANYONE CAN. I'm learning about these players, literally, for the first time, ever.

GREAT INVESTMENT.

"Breakthrough" - Winner, Winner, chicken dinner.

____________________________________
Dear NemoTheOne,
I hope this letter finds you well. Your BHW journey (or "diary" as you call it, LOLZ) is very creative and cool to read. But, you talk about your 'system' and all, but really - have you seen any REAL gains? I mean REAL results. Sure, you can string together a 2-3 leg parlay, with a 4-legger "big leg" like your last update, sometimes. That's cool to read, but anyone can do that. Heck, I can make ChatGPT speak Hebrew while I answer it back in French.

Anyway, just wondering if you can share more of your "system", or is it just crossing your fingers and hoping that you're "simulator" gets it right, more than wrong, sometimes? I've addressed a self-address stamped envelope, so that you may respond, promptly and directly.

Signed,
Wall $treet Kid

____________________________________

Thanks for your letter, Wall $treet Kid, if that is your real name.

Well, let's follow up on yesterday's "real-time" update, shall we?
Yesterday's Investment: approx $55
ROI: approx $558

This is gonna be a long one. So, why don't you grab some tea, coffee, or brew - then come back to this letter, which, I hope finds YOU well, Mr. Kid.

About Me
I'll have to explain some of this nuerologically, so it may come accross as esoteric to some. Hey it's the way my brain works, which is very important to all of this.

I've developed this very keen sense of pattern recognition. My brain just codes numbers and patterns in a very unique way. I definately have some type of hyperactive deal that they probably invented a 3 or 4 letter acroynm for. In a nutshell, it comes from obsessively studying, specifically, sports statistics, values (whether there odds, or any other type of 'system of numbers/rank/value), and digital investing/speculation since I was, at least 8.

I know. Who knew that years later, that combination would be a thing?

About AI
The thing's a beast. It's so customizable. It's kinda funny that Deepseek was trained by open ai - they spit out the same thing. I just use the $20/mo one.

Let's get straight to it, shall we?

First, we find an anchor. By anchor, I mean 'safe bet'. Of course, remember, there are really no 'safe bets', just lest riskier. But, for our purposes, we'll find what we'll call the 'anchor' - barring any irregularities, these "Should hit"

We don't focus on the team, or "leg" - we focus on the player. For this, our core of our batter, or 'anchor', is TJ SHORTS
TJ SHORTS is an INCREDIBLE basketball player on Paris Basketball of the Euroleague. We find his O8.5pts at incredible odds at -106

Granted any irregularities, he's going to CRUSH THAT.
Let's see how he ACTUALLY did. Did he break that O8.5? LOLZ


Now, Mr. Shorts is our very TALL anchor. If his over is mismatched, then naturally, his ASSISTS, REBOUNDS etc etc are all going to hit. We're investing in the player, not the leg (figuratively and literally). We run the BASKETBALL SIMULATOR aka, a really long prompt that simulates games using specialised 'features'.

Now, let's go to the NBA, now that we have our key anchor. We have a key anchor, with top odds, for POINTS, REBOUNDS and ASSISTS.
Let's find an anchor for the NBA - on this night, it's Dyson Daniels. Same deal - there's a mismatch that's been spotted. He's going to crush it. We already shared his part in this in the previous post - screenshot is just above.

Now:
Go read a book. Or, in my case, go write. Consult with clients.
Or not. Excercise. Whatever. The brain resets. We'll come back to this later.

later.....

Round 2

Find another anchor. Listen, my brain works differently, okay? Don't judge me. Now, let's be clear about this. We are finding "anchors", that still have considerably strong odds (-110, -106, etc). It's formula we're working on here. So, whilst I'm calling them "safe" - we didn't even get to the "SAFE" ones, yet. It's "safe" in the way that, the data STRONGLY supports a strong game (or statistical mismatch - could also be an UNDER).

Did I mention that I barely understand all the rules of Basketball? But it makes for some AWESOME video games. And, don't even get me started about the stats....

Well, speaking of which - a statistical mismatch (I think the people call it "EV"?), was spotted for one Al HORFORD of the Boston Celtics. As shown in the above post, the model shared similar insights as to why Mr. Horford would be quite amazing on this night. Naturally, it's very enticing to invest in those +220s which will, most likely hit. Those are for "Hedging". Peppering, Hedging, same difference.

And so on. So, we just repeat that. Until now, you've got something like this - yeah, that's right - the ol' Pen n Paper'. That's right, it's the 2025 AI + analog combination - Big tech meet Big pen and paper:

I need to write things down. No excel, some notepad. It's called the Pepper Routine because, basically, I'm just peppering the "anchors" (purple colours, + D. Daniels) around some statistical mismatches. Not all that diffcult when you have this ai powered thing that does what you tell it to do along the way.....



That's it. I even enclosed a page of my notes for you. I write like a dictor, but I write. The idea is for this to serve as (another) FINANCIAL ECOSYSTEM, whilst having fun in the process. Plus, like I said, I just happy to be a analytics nerd - specifically the speculation type.

I also extended this model to volatile stocks. It would be cool if I said I 'created' a framework, but, I just did the research to find metholodies that work. Then, I basically say, "hey AI, you do that."

Now, in addition to several of the combinations "all hitting", they were built on strong anchors, a couple more also hit, accross other games. This shows, not only consistency, but variance in application - which, naturally, are great things.

Apologies for any typoes, I do not have an eraser.
By the way, thanks for enclosing the S.A.S.E.




This is our base. We make some variances (remove the ML, etc) including various combinations of TJ SHORTS' REB, ASTS, AND POINTS.
Here's ONE of them:



Assists, were -106, POINTS were -110, etc etc. So, with a few of these, that adds up to about $300ish. Okay next.

I invest the same budget I used for AMS KINDLE PUBLISHING.


Have a nice day!
Nt1

Signed,
NemoTheOne
(not my real name, either)

So the AI instrument has some "interactive-beta" thing that just popped up, unvited - but highly welcomed - turned my data on Walker Kessler into a graphic.

We may be focusing on this fellow to be part of our foundational anchor, tonight.
Let's see what happens. May this data help you as well.

• Points vs. Rebounds Correlation
  
  • Correlation Coefficient: 0.30 (Moderate Positive Correlation)
  • Interpretation:
    • Higher rebounding nights are slightly linked to increased scoring.
    • Likely due to putback opportunities and second-chance points.
    • However, scoring volume is not entirely dependent on rebounding totals.
• Notable Performance Patterns
  
  • When recording 15+ rebounds:
    • Averages 16.8 PPG (compared to 11.2 PPG when under 15 REB).
    • Higher usage rate (~18% vs. ~13%).
  • When recording 2+ blocks:
    • Slight increase in minutes played (typically over 30 MPG).
    • Team's defensive rating improves by ~4 points per 100 possessions in those games.
  • Shooting Efficiency:
    • Better FG% in games with fewer FGA (rim-runner role maximized).
    • Lower efficiency when taking 10+ shots (mid-range struggles).
  • Performance vs. Strong Interior Defenses:
    • Struggles vs. elite rim protectors (e.g., Minnesota, Boston).
    • Excels vs. weak-rebounding teams (e.g., Toronto, Washington)

NemoTheOne said:

Well - uh, I'm not disagreeing or saying that 'automation is everything'. I presume that one can enjoy writing the book, but outsource promotion. That's a method that makes sense without compromising the creative joy that comes with the actual producing.

The president of a company doesn't do everything​

Click to expand...

NemoTheOne said:

This is a very interesting conversation. What do you think of having others write and you edit their work?

I think that could help produce more - then again, if you find yourself spending alot of time 'editing', I would say then that you might as well write everything 'on your own'.

If I had to choose I think i would choose to write everything and have others proofread. I'm not sure about having them fully edit it.

Or perhaps have them "begin" a story and I continue it.......
Looks like I'll be trying out the later of having them write "parts" of a story. Though in that case it may be disjointed at times - but with my editing and writing 'the majority' i think that that would be a very effective task in improving production (but not necessarily going at a 'book mill' rate.

Click to expand...

NemoTheOne said:

I am approaching non-fiction.

Although, I think I have enough fiction stories to put together ina sort of collection release. However, that's somewhat all over the place and I like to stay focused with non-fiction topics that I genuinely know about and am passionate about.

Understood about churning out outsourced material to an audience that will repeatedly regret buying them. Doesn't do well for long term, as well as building a (loyal) reader/fan base. Plus, I'd imagine that doing all of that editing would take almost as much time as just writing everything myself.

Good input. It seems the value here is in the QUALITY and not necessarily the quantity.

It's the idea to sell 50 quick fire ebooks at $2.99
or 10 strong ebooks at $7.99

Click to expand...

Manuelmktg said:

The past, current and future state of any crypto coin or token (including Bitcoin), is that prices are manipulated by big whales. Big whales pump and dump prices for their profits. Fundamentals do not matter much. The big whales are smart enough to use fundamentals related news or events to appear that a price pump or dump has happened due to that fundamentals related news or events.

Click to expand...

A JOURNEY, 10+ YEARS IN THE MAKING

I'm not sure if the dates are removed from the above, but those are all posts from quite some many years ago - right here, at BHW.

So, the point is, I'll be expanding into KINDLE PUBLISHING AGAIN.

But wait - what does this have to do with SPECULATION?

Well, if you've been following this journey since it's beginning - and why would you ? That was almost a year ago!

But, if you have, you'd know that my primary income, from making money online - and my full time 'job' is writing. I've not changed my signature since I signed up to BHW. Okay, next.

Now that we're all caught up, my writing ventures are great, profitable and just like I started, as per the above 10+ years ago posts, re: my first dive into Kindle Publishing, is connected to SPECULATION because we'll be investing BIGGER STAKES in our SPECULATION endeavours.

Look for a BASEBALL-BASKETBALL combination coming up soon with investments of/near/around to $500-$1500.

Good day.

I said good day