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Penguin 3 Is Coming - And This IS What It's Going To HIt

Discussion in 'Black Hat SEO' started by Scritty, Oct 9, 2014.

  1. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    Probably.... :) (see what I did there)

    Ok P3 is on the way, according to Google themselves it might launch this very week subject to testing. This is how they operate, the old double whammy. While the standard algo updates all the time, Google like their instanced "P" buddies to stack up on websites. A big Panda followed by a big Penguin (and a big Pelican last year - remember that? - Nah thought not)

    Thing is, all these updates run to a quite predictable pattern. While it's not unusual for say 20% of the changes to be a shock, the other 80% are a continuation of a process that Google outlined several years ago, they are just layering it on.
    So here's my 5... sorry 6 predictions for big P.
    It's a risk publishing this here - I'm going to look a first class twot if I get too many of these wrong, but I'm pretty confident most of them will shake out "Close enough for Rock 'n' Roll"
    Google's Gary Illyes reported at SMX East that Penguin 3.0 could be rolling out as soon as next week (week commencing 6th October 2014)
    Not sure what Penguin is? Check it out here.

    While the push out does depend on last minute testing, even if it misses this date, we can expect it out this month, almost exactly a year after the last update.
    Google have told us that from now on updates will be more frequent. Whether that means twice yearly, quarterly of monthly is unsure. As usual the search engine are keeping their cards close to their chest.
    For all that, it is quite possible to make some sensible predictions here. All the previous updates have followed a trend, plotted quite a specific line from where the index was in 2011, to where Google seem to be taking it.
    As an aside here, where Google seem to be taking at and where they claim to be taking it are not quite the same thing. But that's a conversation for a different post
    The Linking Platform "De Jour" To Be Hit

    Oh come on, of course they will. Penguin hit article sites, Penguin 2 hit WIKI sites. It's a simple process to see what black hat linkers are using and an easy target to pick out whatever the most popular/highly advertised link platform ahs been for the past few months and just downgrade links from that platform.

    It's a blanket approach, and it tends not to be long lasting. Not long lasting? No, not really. For instance, did you know that almost 80% of article sites folded, lapsed hosting or changed platform after the first Penguin? Now, those that remain once the field is cleared are the better ones. New ones have also emerged that have better spam protection and don't allow 3rd parties to auto post overtly commercial content and spam links on them. Getting a link on a PR5 article site now takes some work, and for the most part is well worth the effort . Self hosted "Press releases" were another soft target of course.
    What will it be this time?
    Prediction: Some self Hosted WEB2.0 platforms will get hammered

    Both the sites themselves and those they link to. My guess is some of the older platforms that have "blasts" offered on them. Elgg is a prime possible target here, though others may be involved.
    Empty Links Struck - Again

    Empty links? By this I mean links without context, often without surrounding content on sites that seem to do nothing than offer outbound links all over the place without context or content.
    Penguin runs periodically. These "empty links" get hit, and the sites they link to suffer. Then something strange happens, it seems creating more of them straight after the algorithm has run seems to work just fine - until the algorithm runs again. Sites that use or offer empty links seem immune to the normal daily updates and only suffer when a full Penguin refresh is done. Strange.
    Tools like Xrumer and GSA, if left on default settings create tons of these links. The other metrics can look ok.. Decent age and PR and (if you are interested) Moz authority, but the site being linked from is a cavern of "nothingness". The age old proverb applies about not automating a process you don't understand. Until you know SEO leave the shiny tool alone, they will do you more harm than good.
    Prediction: Forums will be full of people moaning about particular tools getting them a penalty. The truth will be the tool is fine, more often the not it's the user who is at fault.

    The Last Hurrah For Page Rank

    I love one of the standard Google penalty notices. It's like something from antiquity. It goes on about "attempting to manipulate Page rank" Yeah, right, since when has anyone with any SEO experience taken the slightest interest in Page rank outside of flipping sites to people who know no better than to think it's still a relevant metric for anything. Penguin 3 might spell the last time this notice is used
    But that doesn't stop Google looking for strange PR patterns. A sudden influx of hi PR ******** links and it suspects the webmaster has bought into a link scheme.
    Why the last hurrah? Well, in a matter of months, Google loses the exclusive rights to use several of the key components of Page rank under the 25 year patent and copyright laws (yes, Pr is that old)
    I have no doubt that a very similar system will take its place "Page rank 2.0" or whatever, they may even look to buy out a proprietary authority metric like Moz - who dropped SEO from their title last year if you remember - a shrewd move for a company wanting to make them seem more like Google insiders than index manipulators - expecting a friendly bid soon are we Rand?
    Prediction: Google will make a last effort to clean house. High PR link schemes and those that bought into them will get hit. Some big name link selling companies will go down.

    301 Redirects And Other Forms Of Authority/Link Transfer Wiped Out

    You made too much noise folks. It became an industry. People wrote ebooks and started companies to do the job. The red flag was waved in the bulls face, and now we are going to see the reaction.
    301 (or other forms) of re-direct were always a trick. A piece of slight of hand that never really looked permanent to me. They were the equivalent of putting some cardboard over a broken window. A great idea, but it went mass market and now that puts Google in the position of seeming weak or none responsive unless it reacts. History tells me they will react.
    This is probably the aspect I am most doubtful about though. While I am certain the big G will do something at some point, I also have an idea they might do a "special update" at some other time for these as the remit, although link and authority transfer based, isn't quite what Penguin has done in the past.
    Prediction: Google will clamp down on redirects of link juice or authority transfer. Either in Penguin 3 or soon after.

    Authority Sites Boosted - Small and Mini Sites Slapped

    Nothing new here. This has been an on-going process. Panda checks your content and favours authority that way. Penguin checks your link profile with the expectation that a smaller site with less content should have fewer links unless it can differentiate itself in some unique way. Between them they have been "double teaming" small sites for the past 3 years.
    It's not fair, it makes little sense. Historical or "done deal" topic sites don't need to be big, and in fact shouldn't be big. Nor should many sites types require constant updates. It makes little sense for some companies to update at all - but this has always been the case, and Google has always steam-rolled smaller sites in favour of larger and regularly updated ones no matter what the niche
    Caveat: Outside the 1000 or so commercial niches that seem to be manually indexed rather than algorithmically that is.
    Prediction: The penalty for having a small or static site will continue as it always does. Seemingly regardless of whether it makes sense to do so or not

    New Or Improved Clean Up Method Announced

    We had the nonsense of the disavow tool/process. The whole site recovery industry grow up along side its darker cousin the Negative SEO industry. Google have taken some flak over both of these things over the past 20 months or so, and seemingly looked to ignore them both. A quick video from Matt Cutts aside, (see below) their response to criticism from many quarters to facilitating "Spam for cash" in the form of negative SEO has been deafeningly silent.
    However, along with the hint that the algorithm will run more frequently, Google have made hints that the clean up process would be better. Partly because it does a refresh when the algorithm runs, and partly because they want to help out webmasters. Expect a backlash to this as with every Google update. Penguin 3 will get a big stick - and a little carrot

    This was the last time Matt spoke openly about the problem - and I hope he's aware how, since this time Neg SEO has become a very sophisticated industry using long term, hard hitting and very smart methods.Here's the thing. Most webmasters, after being hit, make a cursory effort to recover, then give up. Quit the web, buy a new domain or use something like the 301 trick (and it is a trick). Google are left with dealing with only those that really do want to make the effort, and in a rare case of reciprocity (something Google are certainly not known for) it seems that having understood this, they might try and help out in return.
    Prediction: Google will pay lip service to collateral damage with a barely tweaked recovery system that still emphasis punishment ahead of rehabilitation - Punishment even for those clearly attacked by negative SEO. Why - because they really don't care. Why should they?
     
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  2. indianfreak

    indianfreak Power Member

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    Very well-written and insightful analysis. All the predictions are going to come true, IMO.
     
  3. umerjutt00

    umerjutt00 Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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  4. Getwhatchuwant

    Getwhatchuwant Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    Great stuff as usual Scritty
     
  5. dandan594594

    dandan594594 Power Member

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    One of the better posts this year... food for thought indeed!
     
  6. ziplack

    ziplack Senior Member

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    Here we go again !! google and their BS again !
     
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  7. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    It is BS as well. It serves very little quality purpose.
    It is all about maximizing the index for profit - not quality, and Google (or any other industry) that tells you they work otherwise, is lying.

    But BS - yup - certainly is, wait for the cluster-feck of bullshit that comes out of the "moderators" at GWM Forums straight after.
    GWM forum mods, the kind of people who would turn up at medieval torture with a good book and packed lunch - while running their own shit-pit on the side.
    (How many of those mods run porn sites FFS? Most? All? seems that way)

    Scritty
     
  8. lietuvis002

    lietuvis002 BANNED BANNED

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    historically, Scritty always been on point making decent predictions and conclusions. I would be not surprised if some of these predictions pant out at some point.

    On another hand, Penguin always been after link building schemes used by masses, and those mentioned are clearly overused in the recent years.
     
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  9. johnwild77

    johnwild77 Registered Member

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    ffs when can google just leave us alone and stop penalising us for everything we do.
     
  10. ziplack

    ziplack Senior Member

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    its true , lately google its thinking only about their pocket coz listing quality has been gone down with the years
    sometimes its easier find stuff on bing. I guest google with these updates its trying to make the webmasters start spending money
    in adwords and give up seo , im not saying seo its dead , but google wants money to buy more companies
    google doesnt invent things no more they just buy companies already stablished

    So this its its what i think about this kind of updates , more money to google from webmasters using adwords

     
  11. rkn000

    rkn000 Newbie

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    Great stuff! I also think that most of your predictions are going to come true.
     
  12. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    Yeah - most of these were not hard to make. Every year the new blood to SEO might benefit from knowing which way the wind blows.

    Fore-warned is fore-armed so they say :)
     
  13. AsgharSK

    AsgharSK Regular Member

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    One Of Great Post Nice stuff...
     
  14. Zevoltai

    Zevoltai Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    Honestly nowadays Web 2.0s feel like the last bastion of DIY tier 1s. Where will we turn to for easy contextual links once they've been devalued? Will we all have to resort to hunting guest posts? :/
     
  15. atticanibal

    atticanibal Senior Member

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    Thank was a nice write up :) Thanks for the info and insight
     
  16. ardley216

    ardley216 Elite Member

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    Two men are walking through an African game reserve when they come across a lion, one of the men calmly puts down his backpack and slips on the running shoes he has been carrying.

    The other man chuckles and says, "You'll never outrun a lion."

    To which the other man calmly responds, "I don't need to outrun the lion; I just need to outrun you."



    Just remember, you don't have to beat Google, you just have to beat the other 9 sites in the top 10.
     
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  17. VinceC

    VinceC Elite Member

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    By beating the 9 other sites, doesn't it the same that I am fighting with google for that 1st place in some ways or another? :)
     
  18. ardley216

    ardley216 Elite Member

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    Well, for every site that goes down another comes up. I mean you hear hundreds of IM'ers complaining of lost ranks, but there are also hundreds of sites taking their places.

    To understand why one website goes down and the other goes up can be easy to understand.. Just look at the on page, and off page metrics. Of course there is now much more of a bias towards larger sites... And I think people need to start thinking of having one big nest egg rather lots of little micro sites.
     
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  19. Vic Sage

    Vic Sage Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    I think you just gave some ideas to Google on what to do and what not to do lol.

    Nevertheless, great post. Though, am still gonna avoid anything that tells me how to rank after each update. If 1 site drops, I will rank another...and the crusade goes on.

    We, Internet Marketers/Webmasters made Google what it is today..and this is what we are getting in return. Hats off to Google. Many great foes of many great stories are nothing against them.

    They tell people that they are trying to make the search results more accurate. Though, we know the real story, they want more customers for their Adwords initiative (Or whatever that is lol).

    Hell, the content I put up on my sites are more enjoyable and well-structured than those WebMD content. How much relevance and engaging content they want anyway?

    Anyway....back to churn & burn.
     
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  20. FutureProofSeo

    FutureProofSeo Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member UnGagged Attendee

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    As long as your SEO looks like real marketing you will never be hit by a penalty.