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My journey to... $0.09/day... WAIT WUT?

Discussion in 'Affiliate Programs' started by hjungles, Sep 12, 2014.

  1. hjungles

    hjungles Newbie

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2014
    Messages:
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    Occupation:
    IT in a Gov't agency
    Location:
    Southern Brazil
    Hey BHW,


    I introduced myself yesterday (.../introductions/703453-luker-shows-up.html) and this is my first "actual" post. So I have been lurking around IM for every single night last month and now I'm getting close to ACTION.


    The last week I've been building my own system which is basically Google Sniper updated and improved. It's basically about creating blogs, filling it with juicy helpful content and promoting Amazon products. Yesterday I've spent the night putting my system in words and spreedsheets, but it pushed me into big disappointment.


    Well, I see a lot of people who get into IM by extensive trial-and-error and always excusing themselves saying "don't overthink, bro", "if it doesn't work, move along" and so... But in my current financial condition and with the miserable experiences with bussiness from the past (as I reported in my introduction), I DO HAVE TO OVERTHINK it. Otherwise I will certainly screw myself once again.

    So, here are the numbers for a single blog:

    Inital investment
    USD 115 and 68 work-hours along 30 days.

    Maintenance costs
    About USD 20 and 4 work-hours per month.

    Monthly income estimation
    The product of the following factors:

    • Global search count for the primary keyword in Google
    • Google CTR
    • in-page CTR
    • comission rate from Amazon
    • price of the promoted product

    I'm considering negligible the traffic not coming from Google (Bing, Yahoo, YouTube, ...) so as traffic coming from secondary keywords.

    Google CTR is estimated from Google SERP according to the following table:

    SERP CTR
    ---- --------
    1 34.35%
    2 16.96%
    3 11.42%
    4 7.73%
    5 6.19%
    6 5.05%
    7 4.02%
    8 3.47%
    9 2.85%
    10 2.71%
    11 1.11%
    12 0.85%
    13 0.70%
    14 0.57%
    15 0.48%
    16 0.39%
    17 0.33%
    18 0.28%
    19 0.27%
    20 0.29%

    Optimistic case

    • Searches = 10k / mo
    • GCTR = 6.19% (SERP = 5)
    • PCTR = 3%
    • CR = 8.5%
    • Price = USD 50.00
    Income = USD 78.93 / mo (2.63/day)

    Plausible case

    • Searches = 7.5k / mo
    • GCTR = 4.02% (SERP = 7)
    • PCTR = 2%
    • CR = 6%
    • Price = USD 50.00
    Income = USD 18.09 / mo (0.60/day)

    Pessimistic case

    • Searches = 5k / mo
    • GCTR = 2.71% (SERP = 10)
    • PCTR = 1%
    • CR = 4%
    • Price = USD 50.00
    Income = USD 2.71 / mo (0.09/day)

    What am I missing?

    • Should I account secondary keywords?
    • sould I account non-Google traffic sources?
    • are GSniper-like systems fundamentally broken and unfixable?
    • are my in-page CTR estimatives too pessimistic?
    • should I move into affiliate programs with better comission rates, like Clickbank?
    • should I think less and act more?
    Am I missing something here?

    Thank you in advance,
    hjungles
     
    • Thanks Thanks x 1
  2. hjungles

    hjungles Newbie

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2014
    Messages:
    4
    Likes Received:
    3
    Occupation:
    IT in a Gov't agency
    Location:
    Southern Brazil
    ******bump******