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Low of Large numbers (LLN) - Promoters, how do you measure the accuracy of your conversion rate?

Discussion in 'White Hat SEO' started by freshaero, Aug 27, 2016.

  1. freshaero

    freshaero Newbie

    May 15, 2016
    Likes Received:
    Hi all,

    In science, there is a law called The Law of Large numbers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) which say the following :

    In https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

    The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered.
    Also, I would like to know you take into account this when promoting your product online and offline.

    Personally, I believe that on an average : with 100 products promoted offline you should have at least 5 sales (conversion rate = 5%).

    However, for online promotion I am a bit confused since there are several kind of interference such as fake visitors (bot), the product market places (case of product on demand like cafepress, zazzle, society6), etc. Also I would like to know your point about what should be minimum conversion rate AND from how many visitors (one could say the LLN could be applied).