Investing & Youtube Journey to 7 Figures

komo22

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Between these multiple investment streams and a YouTube channel updating the status on them, lets see how long it takes me to reach 7 figures as well as a monetizable YouTube channel.





Stock Market (Taxable & Retirement Account): $91,766

Robinhood (Tecnical Trading): $2,515

Wealthfront (Roboadvisor): $3,015

Fundrise (Private REIT): $1,107

SeedInvest (Private Equity): $2,000


TOTAL: $100,403





Youtube Subscribers
: 601 / 1000

Youtube Watch Hours: 729 / 4000

Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChT4ajlHkg9z-3uGoSmxE4g





I will not be including my crypto holdings for now. Too many pump and dumps and fundamentals turn on a dime to be spreading information. In the future as more stable projects come online that tackle hard assets i.e real estate, shares of registered securities on blockchain, infrastructure improvements etc.






Stock Market: $91,766


(Cash Account)
stockmarket1cash.png



(Cash Account Current Holdings)
stockmarket1cashlist.png


(Retirement)
stockmarket1retirement.png


(Robinhood)
robinhood1.png


(Wealthfront)
wealthfront img.png


(Fundrise)
fundrise img.png


(SeedInvest)
seedinvest1.png


I will explain my investment sector & thesis's in individual posts for max images. Thank you to anyone who folllows!
 

komo22

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Stock Market:


stockmarket1cashlist.png



(Broken Down)
portfoliodiverse.png

As you can see I have a mixture of different companies, sectors, and industries.




My personal way of choosing stocks is to find out what the public price is compared to the companies underlying free cash flow.




For example if you can buy a piece of real estate that has fallen out of favors to buyers. The structure is similar, it just needs an extra step or two to be valued at the previous price point. Things like an owner passed away in the house, people are superstitious and won't buy it. The real estate is worth full price, but on an emotional decision, people avoid it.

Another example is if a property needs a little love, renovating the kitchen and bathrooms to a more modern standard to raise the price to market average value.


houseidentical2.png





In the public stock market, the underlying factor between an undervalued company and it's fair value is TIME.


510qPz1my9L._AC_SX522_.jpg



Some of the greatest value investors, Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Peter Lynch recognize that the inefficiencies in the market are do to peoples impatience.





People are their own worst enemy when it comes to managing investments. Take a look at this chart from Aug. 2020.

The average time in Aug 2020 went all the way down to 5 1/2 months. That's right 5 1/2 months all the way down from a decade holding period in the 1950's-1960's.


Do to high frequency trading it does boost the downward stat some but the overall picture is correct. HFT is good for closing the spread between trades so if you purchase say $100 worth of stocks, you will get $100 or tecnically $99.999999999999999 worth because provide the liquidity buying from someone and selling those to you in milliseconds, while of course taking a very tiny spread.



So if the liquidity on stocks are near perfection, and the average period holding time continues to trend downward....more value will be found while the competition dwindles do to human nature and the evolution of index funds.



Pasted image 1596444244862.png




8e1a905c67a90d29bba94cd20543c77a--money-twitter.jpg


So, what and how do we capitalize on others people's impatience? We need to find undervalued companies.


My personal method and most modern method is using stock screeners to weed through thousands of public companies. I am looking for companies who are profitable, have higher then average growth potential, and most importantly, undervalued. Low debt is also a very big plus. (Under 1 debt/capital)



Finviz, tradingview, seekingalpha, simplywallst, fastgraphs all have free or have free trials you can keep using new emails

I filter out everything except mostly if not all US companies, too many people including myself have been burned by foreign entities....



(Recent Chinese IPO) - Dropped like a rock because of complications overseas....stick to US companies
didi123.png


Ok now with mostly US companies here are my screener inputs:

Value using FCF: 25%+

Future Growth by Analysts over the next 1-3 years:
15%+

Past Earnings Growth Performance Past 5 years: 10%+ per year

Debt to Equity: 100% or below / Under 1 ratio

Profit Margin
: 0%+ honestly though 5-10% minimum unless it's ultra growth company in early stages



(Here's an example screen)
screener.png


(Another one)
screener1.png


As you can see with the metrics, you will most of the same companies on different screeners. Most aren't differential, so it's up to preference.




...continuing for images on next post
 

komo22

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Stock Market (Part 2):



Why Fundamentals matter...


Take a look of this recent chart of Microsoft. Over the last few years, it has rapidly exploded in price.
msft1.png


As you can see over two decades Microsoft has rapidly appreciated at 13.6% annually. Believe it or not it almost doubled the SP500 at 7%.



But what you don't see is that there have been times where Microsoft wasn't and might not be the best investment at the moment and I'll show you why.




During the dotcom bubble, valuations were extended way past the underlying business, and well you know the outcome. If you had invested $10,000 into Microsoft on June 30, 2000 that same investment would have been -41% even before the 2008/2009 crash and then would have continued all the way down to -54% at the bottom.


msft2.png


See, this is why fundamentals matter long term. Most of these screener free cash flow plays take 6+ months MINIMUM to play out. There's a reason why people are impatient, and I explained it in the last post.

But now you'll see why patience is rewarding.


This is what would have happened if you bought MSFT when it was undervalued.

msft3.png


....It took 5 years before Microsoft was fairly valued. And look, it still returned a 19% return. Why? If you look at the green, you can see the earnings per share or EPS increasing in value every year or close to it. So what does that mean, Microsoft was under valued for those 5 years.



Now, when it comes to current valuations...

sp5001.png


Take a look at the SP500. The top 10 holdings account for 27% of the entire fund. Some dversification between 500 companies....



msft4.png

Even if MSFT kept up with it's extremely high price premium for the next few years, a projected return of 6.75% using adjusted earnings or around 12% using FCF moving forward.


Now compared to the market you can say, wow with FCF if it returns 12% a year that's great. But when the market, SP500 is basically MSFT in itself, there are much better investments out there that make fundamental sense.

That's a reason why Michael Burry (Big Short Investor) says there is a passive index bubble looming. Too much allocation on too few companies, dragging the whole market up, but on the downside....oh boy


amazon1.png

Compare it to Amazon, and yes Amazon does have a much higher p/e ratio, but when you compare it to it's FCF or historical P/E + the analysts projected growth....it's night and day. Projected 30%+ annual return. This round I didn't comment on technical this round of info, but traders know the consolidation Amazon has had the past year is primed for a extreme move.


So to conclude on the individual stock level, screeners are showing, Homebuilders, Healthcare, and Bio as prime fundamental targets...time to do your homework

screener3.png



POSITION SIZING:

I don't have any qualms about position sizing. If your trade thesis is thorough 25-50% is adequate. Now of course the higher your balance diversification is better on keeping wealth. Earning wealth concentrated generates alpha. In the main portfolio I have 14 and will be consolidating as some of my companies fall into the overvalued territory.





Good luck, and I'll update and share why and how I pick my other investments and what they even are like I did my stock account.
 

komo22

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Good luck there. But, what's the plan with the Youtube?
maybe he planning to bring traffic through his affiliation link, more $$$$, i don't know


No monetary goal as of now. Want to take small steps, first to monetization threshold is the goal. But the average finance cpm range for adsense I've seen has been over $10 per 1k views all the way into the mid $30's
 

komo22

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Well...licking the cuts and healing the bruises from the market this past year...I think it's time to form an actionable plan. Many mistakes were made, some of my timing was horrible, but now as earnings compress the deals will be there.

Had bad timing selling out of my stock portfolio to go into crypto....six figure loss. Got discouraged so I stopped making videos as I felt stupid and didn't want to hide the losses.

Time to pick my self up again and build a nice foundation.




Crypto + Precious metals will now be a part of this journey as the world is accelerating the rollout of cbdc's and the eastern hemisphere of the world is actively getting away from the US dollar so the two will be in synergy as we see commodity backed cbdc's




Stock Market (Taxable & Retirement Account): $38,150 (Sold out of taxable, started from $0)

Robinhood (Tecnical Trading): $2,122

Wealthfront (Roboadvisor): $2,523

Fundrise (Private REIT): $1,275


SeedInvest (Private Equity): $2,000

Crypto: $57,193

Silver: 300-400 oz





TOTAL:
$100,740 + 300oz-400oz silver




Youtube Subscribers
: 455 / 1000

Youtube Watch Hours: 145 / 4000

Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChT4ajlHkg9z-3uGoSmxE4g







So...moving forward, lets talk about what changed in the market. If you see this screenshot from the last post in July of 2021, I spoke about how the price of Microsoft was rapidly outpacing the actual earnings of the company.



msftbhw123.png



Well, we know how that unfolded. The market took a beating and is starting to revert to its mean. (Below orange line = start heavily buying. Below blue line = every last dollar you can use, BUY)


spyma1234.png



This is something I should have been more cautious about, because all markets including crypto, stocks, real estate, precious metals all follow the stock market and more importantly the central bank rates. You cannot stop the market, so even if a company look like a good deal, the market can take it down with it.


Now that the general sentiment of the state of the market is out of the way, lets talk about the future. The past year has definitely outline a few things.


Cash flow = freedom

>What I mean by this is that if you want to replace your current income with invested income, well you'll need investments that payout on a regular or semi regular basis (monthly or quarterly)
  • Real estate = monthy rent
  • Dividends = Quarterly / Monthly
>Equity investing is a fantastic wealth generator, but if you want to replace your income from a job or business with passive or semi passive income then you need the assets to pay you back cash on a predictable basis. Yes, you can take loans out on your stock/crypto portfolio but I wouldn't advise it for general living expenses unless your assets are in the multi million dollar range as you can get easily margin called, and the rates are variable and rise and lower when the FED rises and lowers. Having a large balance gives you the option as 1-10% borrowed is much different on a $1 million account vs a $5 million. On a $5 million you can borrow 2% and have $100k to spend while the market, appreciates an average of 7% but a down year like this past could put your say $1 million dollar portfolio in jeopardy as you'd need to leverage more to have a livable income. The whole point is to avoid asset erosion, that's how general wealth is lost by spending the principal amount.

  • See for example, when rates were lower a year ago I could take loans on my stock portfolio for 2%...now it's around 4-6% depending on how much money you have in your brokerage
  • Below is my brokerage account. You can see the bill from September to August jump tremendously as the FED raises the rates. I didn't borrow more money, the cost of borrowing just increased. This is why the market drops as money is harder to come by, and companies who aren't profitable collapse dragging the whole market down.


portfoliom1234margin.png


The margin is used on Agree Realty corp aka the little brother of Realty income corp, a monthly paying reit. I'm not going to close it out yet as the dividend yield is 3.86% so instead of 5.75% I'm truly paying 1.89%. The margin interest can be used to offset some of the dividend taxes as an fyi.

I believe compared to the physical real estate market, the underlying holdings/buildings of the company did not appreciate accordingly compared to the private market. So funnily enough the opposite of the silver market which we'll get to in a second.

This is a list of their institutional grade tenants. Enough to not worry me to close the trade, as I believe their tenants will survive long term (Autoparts, Aldi, Dollar General, Walmart, Tractor supply, etc.)




adc1234.png






So, one pattern I've recognized with cashflow, is that real estate tends to be one main pillars. Think about it, there are only so many businesses that have a predictable monthly income where the customer is locked in for one to decade year contracts. If the operator is good, they will have factored in maintenance, operating, and vacancy costs.



I personally cannot afford to do commercial or residential real estate in my area as the average home is in the $350-400k range. I don't have the operating experience so I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket, that will be once the real estate market starts to go down. See pic related, the average median home in the US has been far above the mean for a long time now.




homeprices.png



Our currency has inflated so much attributing to the real estate appreciation. But with the continuous raise of rates to stop inflation, people can't afford a mortgage that almost just doubled in monthly payments. That same 500k home where someone was maybe paying $1,250 in just interest a month is now paying $2,500 in just the interest alone. So it has to go down, but I believe hard assets are going to be crucial moving forward. Will this be the last hoorah for the USD? Let's find out.





$USD:

Now this is where things are getting interesting on a world macro level. The USD has been officially the world reserve currency since the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 following WWII. Meaning that majority of trade if not all from country to country was transacted with, and held in USD.

Well, that's great if your on the benefiting side from a strong dollar, US citizens and corporations because they are able to get cheap imports. Why? Because if the trades all around the world are transacting in USD then it holds it's value. Well, what ends up happening is countries dump their own currency as fast as possible to the USD because it holds it's value from stated above. This causes a spiral of continuous dumping of the host currency for the USD. Well, if the currency continues to be sold off, it becomes less and less valuable.

As the host countries currency declines, the salaried wages / pensions increasingly become worthless as the cost of foreign goods are held in USD. This can cause two different effects, the people of the country either spend as fast as they can on goods, weakening the currency. or trade immediately to USD. If that happens then the economic activity is slowed in the country, so then they print/inflate the currency to stimulate activity, but it then further devalues as more is in circulation.

This leads to worthless currency -> countries raising their rates to cause deflation....which then leads to pic below




currency123.png


Mortgage rates in the 10%+ range. At that point most things are paid in cash past a 15-20%+ range as no one will lend in a defaulting nation. At this point business loans are in the same boat, if not impossible to find.


We are already finding this in many nations on this very list above, inflating currency becomes worthless which all stops to prevent it only lead to a downwards spiral.



As you can see below, a woman has to result to robbing the very own bank that has been holding her money hostage, as the defaulting country cannot afford for their currency to be sold off, and the banks themselves whether country or privately owned may not even have the funds left.






lebanese.png




Coming to a country near you. Hard assets that are tangible and useful like energy vs inflating currency as you can see in Germany and UK already....winter is coming





Part 2 will include Energy, Gold/Silver, and CBDCs.


BRICS = COMMODITIES + CURRENCY = CBDC


...stay tuned
 

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