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If You Had To Guess, How Many Profiles on FB are Fake?

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by CEPI, Apr 24, 2012.

  1. CEPI

    CEPI Power Member

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    Since I have been in the investment banking world and I was watching when Facebook filed their S-1 to go public they have a lot of garbage in their pitchbook about "931 Million monthly active users log in at least once a month and over 500 million on a daily basis" etc etc....

    I am curious that if you had to take a guess, out of the 931 million active (supposedly) profiles, how many of them do you think are fake and just made for marketing purposes? Like 20% or so, or do you think more?
     
  2. BHopkins

    BHopkins Moderator Staff Member Moderator Jr. VIP

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    I know a few guys on BHW who have half of those "active" accounts. :)
     
  3. shaddelick

    shaddelick Regular Member

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    I've wondered the same thing. i am leaning towards 30% of users based on my observations
     
  4. CEPI

    CEPI Power Member

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    That's what I was thinking BHopkins. I know some guys here have thousands of accounts. I wonder what the actual number of "real" users are on FB? They are using the inflated numbers to push their stock price higher before it even IPOs and uneducated investors are going to buy into this "931 million active users" BS and think that means that all of those people are on there shopping and creating money for FB earnings.
     
  5. Roparadise

    Roparadise BANNED BANNED

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    Hypothetically speaking, could Mark Zuckerberg get fined and prison time,if the SEC found out he was misleading the investors in the IPO in regards to the amount of people on Facebook.
     
  6. PinguSpy

    PinguSpy Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    100,000,000
     
  7. Essence19

    Essence19 BANNED BANNED

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    A security company last year did a profile/scan of active facebook accounts. they found between 70 million are Fake or duplicate accounts unused and with less than 3 pictures. and 110 million are only used 5 - 10 times in 1 year. the rest are active weekly. if you search google you can find the report.
     
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  8. CEPI

    CEPI Power Member

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    Yes he could but that would all be based on how his legal team has defined "active user" in the S-1 filing. If he said something like, "number of user accounts that log in in a xxxx period of time" then it is left up to the investor to fully understand that risk. If he defines it as "Actual human traffic on the website that log in every xxxx period of time" he could be in huge trouble.

    I doubt he went with the latter definition. They know, internally, thos numbers are false, but have enough loopholes in the legalease and fine print that release them of liability to define "active user." The problem is that the non-tech savvy investor will never, ever, know that.
     
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  9. Roparadise

    Roparadise BANNED BANNED

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    Im just tired of Zuckerberg getting all the credit for Facebook being created,when lots of other people were involved in its creation.
     
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  10. CEPI

    CEPI Power Member

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    I think I may make some phone calls on this. Keep your eyes on the press this week. I have a feeling this thread (names and BHW website redacted) may be getting some air time.
     
  11. bleach

    bleach Senior Member

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    in reality more than 100,000,000
    lot of accounts are fake.
    facebook is ugc. the more fake profile = the more traffic
     
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  12. imperial444

    imperial444 Elite Member

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    2/3 of these are fake
     
  13. CEPI

    CEPI Power Member

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    2 out of 3? like 66% of FB profile are fake? That's a high number, but seriously could be up there. I have always been skeptical that its around 50% or so.