How to prepare for the bitcoin crash

Sherb

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Not sure how I feel about that article. There is quite a bit of misinformation, and the author is basically equating the impending Bitcoin crash to the housing bubble of 2008/2009, which is ridiculous.

Current value of "Bitcoin": ~$195 Billion.
Current value of "US Housing Market": ~$30 Trillion.

Over 150 times larger. And instead of being an intangible asset, it's literally the concept of shelter in the most powerful country on Earth. Comparisons of apples to oranges categorically as well. Even if Bitcoin went to zero, it would only truly affect a small fraction of people, and wouldn't have much of an effect at all on the world economy.

If I had to draw a comparison between crypto and investment vehicles that have been around for a while, I'd equate it to general stocks, with smaller cryptocurrencies being similar to penny stocks and pump and dumps.

But this is unlike anything we have seen before. Tulip bulb argument isn't worth a shit either. That was 400+ years ago, there are so many other factors at play.

I'm done fearmongering the fall of Bitcoin. Every prediction I've made about crypto has been proven to be incorrect, whether the timing of bubbles bursting or where it will top out. All I really know now is that it's still ridiculously volatile, it will drop significantly eventually, and most people speculating and buying into it are doing so without any true financial education.

When the dust settles, a lot of people will have made a good chunk of coin. A lot of people will have bought high and regretted it. Life goes on. Here is what I honestly think/speculate will happen at this point in time, though:
  • The price is going to continue to rise something three units for every drop in a unit.
  • At some point, I assume in the next month or so, it will start a descent.
  • The descent will be rapid until it drops to ~$5,000.
  • It will continue to fall at a less steep rate after $5,000, down to about $2,500 or $3,000.
  • Once it hits the bottom, it will rise at a rate similar to other stocks and index funds, and become less volatile.
  • Most smaller altcoins will collapse as soon as Bitcoin plummets. I'd say all but the top ten by market cap will be gone or devalued to useless levels.
And again, that could all be totally wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. @roman375 is spot on that everything about this is speculative. And @MatthewGraham is right in that putting your thinking in "this time is different" is foolish.

I'm still waiting for a way to invest safely in blockchain technology. If anyone knows of anything, hit me up.
 

roman375

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As I said, Crypto is here to stay. and the technology is fantastic and has amazing potential.
Will BTC be the leading coin in 5/10 years? Who knows? Another coin may replace it, or BTC will be universally accepted at this stage it is anybodies guess.

But we are definitely in a bubble ATM, it does not mean that if BTC crashes it will then disappear, it will bounce back eventually but if I had substantial investments in BTC then I would look to be selling a percentage with every price increase.
I would keep 20-30% invested but I would look to take profit out now with a view to re-investing when the price falls.

IMO BTC will only start to achieve it's full potential when people stop treating it as an investment as the volatility is hampering the take up of businesses treating it as a currency and payment option.

This is only my view and as I no longer have any BTC my opinion can be ignored.

I agree with everything you have just said. The problem with selling "high" and trying to buy an expected dip is that it is incredibly difficult to time the markets. You could just as easily sell now only to see it climb to 15k+ and only dip to 10k before recovering, resulting in you buying back in higher than what you sold for.

Having said that, if your bitcoin investment makes up a significant portion of your assets and potential corrections make you nervous, then you are probably over exposed and should look to decrease your position and take some profits now.
 

blogzandstuff

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Is not that exactly how everything in this world works? Your stuff is only worth something if there is somebody willing to buy it from you at that price, why do people say that like it only applies to bitcoin?
That's what I said, the greater fool principal. Someone will only buy from you if they think it will go up not down lol!
 

Jiung

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I just have $50 in bitcoin that I'm willing to lose. Who knows, maybe it'll go up to a couple K within a year or two, who knows maybe I'll lose it all. It's fine, I don't care.
 

KamBhai

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As a BTC investor, of course I regret a lot for not keeping my bitcoins for 2 more weeks (I sold a lot 2 weeks ago). Obviously I never took a loss from BTC yet.
But with the increasing price, I must say it gives a lot tension about where would the price go tomorrow since I still own few.
My father says its going to crash and when it does it will come down under $3k and I believe him since he is into stock market from 30 years now.
I feel like cashing out everything but honestly, I am just too addicted with this BTC right now.
 

Floopa75

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Bitcoin will never realize it's true potential until people separate it from USD/Eur. BTC is still "centralized" because it's worth is based off those two currencies. When people make the full leap of faith (which some people are already doing) into BTC and only pay with BTC, then it's true value will be realized. Whether or not the EU/US govs are willing to let their respective currencies take a back seat remains to be seen. This is a very crucial time for BTC imo as people are begin to seriously ponder whether or not BTC should be the currency of the world, or if it should just be a way to potentially make some money.

I think with BTC's skyrocketing values it is cementing itself more and more as a mainstream currency. People are HODL'ing and it's resulting in them becoming familiar with having all their money in BTC. What happens the day all those people decide USD/Eur is worthless to them and only stay in BTC? You have to remember that people will cling to a tree covered in shit, over one that isn't, if the shit covered tree is what they are familiar with and know best. Plenty of children are having college funds built solely out of BTC right now. Parents are explaining in detail BTC to their children, and not bothering with explaining how fiat currencies work throughout the world. That last sentence is proven true by the people on the various BTC subreddits and forums talking about their children getting involved with BTC.

What happens when these boys grow up, realize the US politicians are bunch of shitdicks (like all other politicians) and say "screw USD/EUR/*insert fiat currency here*" and make the full, lifetime switch to BTC? - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7h5sk4/proud_of_my_boys/

Just an interesting time all around.
 

MatthewGraham

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all their money in BTC

Say what you will about BTC, regardless of whether or not Bitcoin goes up, putting literally all of your money in it is completely fucking reckless.

What happens when these boys grow up, realize the US politicians are bunch of shitdicks (like all other politicians) and say "screw USD/EUR/*insert fiat currency here*" and make the full, lifetime switch to BTC? - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7h5sk4/proud_of_my_boys/

I agree with the sentiment -- there are plenty of politicians who are pieces of shit. Also, there are a lot of intricacies to how fiat currency works that are very frequently glossed over in the weekly Crypto Fight Club™ threads. Things like...
  • Extreme oversimplifications of how government debt works:
    • "It's bad when I, an everyday citizen with $500 in the bank, have debt. So it must be bad for the government to incur debt."
    • "China owns the USA they can just come collect debt at any minute and crash the US economy!"
  • Extreme simplifications of how inflation works:
    • "It's just the government stealing your money!"
  • Extreme simplifications of how printing money works:
    • "They can just print infinity money with no negative repercussions!"
  • Extreme simplifications of fiat currency vs. currency backed by gold:
    • "There's nothing backing up the money! It's all made up, man. [Rips bong]"
  • Extreme simplifications of lending requirements for banks. Re:
    • "They can just lend infinity money with no negative repercussions!"
    • "There's nothing backing up the loans! It's all made up, man."
    • "[Rips bong]"
  • And so on and so forth.
Which, who knows, maybe you're an expert on global financial systems and view it as a scam regardless. More power to you. The point is -- anyone who wants to learn about Bitcoin would be be well inclined to do some reading on how and why "the man" operates the way that it does and it's benefits (or at least purported benefits, if you still think it's a piece of shit). There are some clear pros (and of course cons) to fiat currency and the current financial system, which BTC investors should take the time to at least learn about, even if they disagree.
 

Floopa75

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Say what you will about BTC, regardless of whether or not Bitcoin goes up, putting literally all of your money in it is completely fucking reckless.



I agree with the sentiment -- there are plenty of politicians who are pieces of shit. Also, there are a lot of intricacies to how fiat currency works that are very frequently glossed over in the weekly Crypto Fight Club™ threads. Things like...
  • Extreme oversimplifications of how government debt works:
    • "It's bad when I, an everyday citizen with $500 in the bank, have debt. So it must be bad for the government to incur debt."
    • "China owns the USA they can just come collect debt at any minute and crash the US economy!"
  • Extreme simplifications of how inflation works:
    • "It's just the government stealing your money!"
  • Extreme simplifications of how printing money works:
    • "They can just print infinity money with no negative repercussions!"
  • Extreme simplifications of fiat currency vs. currency backed by gold:
    • "There's nothing backing up the money! It's all made up, man. [Rips bong]"
  • Extreme simplifications of lending requirements for banks. Re:
    • "They can just lend infinity money with no negative repercussions!"
    • "There's nothing backing up the loans! It's all made up, man."
    • "[Rips bong]"
  • And so on and so forth.
Which, who knows, maybe you're an expert on global financial systems and view it as a scam regardless. More power to you. The point is -- anyone who wants to learn about Bitcoin would be be well inclined to do some reading on how and why "the man" operates the way that it does and it's benefits (or at least purported benefits, if you still think it's a piece of shit). There are some clear pros (and of course cons) to fiat currency and the current financial system, which BTC investors should take the time to at least learn about, even if they disagree.
Putting all your money into BTC can be seen as reckless, but some of the best outcomes were granted to men who went all in. I'm not going to say I agree with it because I don't, but those all or nothing types have tightened up their odds of success to 50/50. 50% chance of being seen as a total genius in 5 years, 50% chance of being seen as a total idiot in 5 years.

Regarding the oversimplifications, you have made some fair points. But sometimes the people who try to micromanage the economies of the world (politicians) cause the biggest, most severe problems. So there is an innate advantage to the "ignorance is bliss" approach. The man who puts all his money into BTC with 100% ignorance could be very well filthy rich one day. Filthy rich, happy as hell and still totally ignorant.

Money and economics are really quite interesting with how much controversy the topics to bring. People have gone to wars over it, many times. Imagine in 5 years, when there's super solider robots beating the shit out of each other, trying to steal each other's super computer that holds all of their respective country's BTC?
 

davids355

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When that bitcoin weight gets to $100k it’s gonna hurt of it lands on your head. That’s the only crash you’ll feel.
 

MisterF

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I just have $50 in bitcoin that I'm willing to lose. Who knows, maybe it'll go up to a couple K within a year or two, who knows maybe I'll lose it all. It's fine, I don't care.
Like any investment / gamble - only risk what you can comfortably afford to lose.
 

ubk95

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20fqv7.jpg
 

zanderzero

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This reminds me of the tulip market back in the 17th century. They were used as a currency, everyone trading them and their price skyrocketing. And eventually after some time when the market was at its peak, investors started panicking and it crashed a few weeks later down to dirt.
 

Racevedo

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I'm waiting for that crash so I can get them cheaper
 

Google Prince

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Dude John McAfee predicts bitcoin will be valued at $1mil by 2020 or he will eat his own dick!!!

How could you not believe this guy?

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