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How to predict traffic from the #1 google spot

Discussion in 'Black Hat SEO' started by ningning, Mar 31, 2010.

  1. ningning

    ningning Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    I have recently started to use Market Samurai and the Google Adwords Keyword Tool. I believe that Market Samurai fetch its figures from the free Google tool.

    My question is how accurate are the estimated search figures are?

    The numbers seem to be way to high from my experience. I have a site that ranks #1 in Google for a keyword that Market Samurai says has 1100 daily searches. The number one spot usually get ~40% of the clicks in this case theoretically 440 clicks.

    The actual number of visitors that I receive for the keyword is 43

    Is it so that the real figure is only 10 percent of what Market Samurai and Googles keyword tool suggest?

    Is there a better way to predict traffic?

    Other tools etc ?
     
  2. smoky1930

    smoky1930 Newbie

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    Are you using broad,phrase, or exact match?
    Posted via Mobile Device
     
  3. ningning

    ningning Jr. VIP Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    - Exact match.
     
  4. heavyweight

    heavyweight Junior Member Premium Member

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    These are all estimations. A lot of factors are involved here. You can "debug" this by running an adwords ad for one day to see how much impressions you will get. IF there are a lot of impressions than check your title and meta-description. You can do some fancy things there to increase your CTR.
     
  5. justmissed

    justmissed Newbie

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    Try using google's adwords traffic estimator, it seems to be fairly accurate.
    https://adwords.google.com/select/TrafficEstimatorSandbox
     
  6. bhumas

    bhumas Newbie

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    This tool estimates adwords clicks and is limited by the budget and cpc you set.

    Match type isn't the only reason why youll get bad data in the google keyword tool. make sure you have the right country and language selected, and then if you're in the #1 google spot take 21% of the number.

    Sometimes their data is wrong but most of the time people screw up the settings and compare themselves to the wrong thing.
     
  7. rightstart

    rightstart Newbie

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    This has been my experience as well. I have a site with the main keyword estimated at 33K/mo. I'm usually between #3 and #7. I get about 1,500 to 2,000 uniques monthly.

    I think search estimates and clicks on specific positions, whether from Google or a third party tool are really most valuable when evaluating keywords/markets against each other, in other words, relative comparison (i.e. this market is twice as big as that market; be careful here too; I have a #3 spot for a huge tennis related site; it gets the most visitors of all my sites but is at the bottom in terms of profits; beware the "freebie seeker"). You can get a pretty good estimate of overall size and competition of markets, but not how many visitors YOUR site will necessarily get.

    BTW, I think the 40% click-rate for #1 position in Google is way high. I personally don't click on the #1 position anywhere near that frequently. I just try to stay in the top 5 so that I'm "above the fold". For me, the extra work to get AND maintain #1 just isn't worth it. I'd rather spend time building more sites or SEO'ing lesser performers.