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How to bet against U.S economy?

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by playercool, Oct 17, 2009.

  1. playercool

    playercool Junior Member

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    Hello,

    While I am working towards making most of my income earned from online ventures I currently make the bulk of my income from investing in Real Estate. I am currently noticing something very scary in regards to our economy. At this point I am seeing the lowest amount of Foreclosures on the market in my 4 years of investing. Not only is it at all all time low but it is basically 50% less than what was on the market at this time a year ago.

    What does this mean?

    Well we know very well our economy is not very good right now. So wouldn't that mean there would be more foreclosures on the market? You would think so.

    It is much harder to get a loan right now for your average person. Hell for anyone right now it is harder to get a loan. Banks are actually verifying employment. They are verifying funds. They have tightened guidelines. They are requiring down payments. Wouldn't that mean that there would be more houses on the market?

    So what does this mean?

    Well according to my research this is what I have found out. The Obama Administration, Fannie, Freddie, have basically put a moratorium on Foreclosures. When they did this most banks followed suit. What this has done is caused the Foreclosures to sorta stand still for a while(Yes some houses are still being foreclosed on like normal). So essentially what is happening is there is this bottleneck happening. When that breaks it is going to rupture hard. Harder than ever. If you couldn't afford your house 6 months ago guess what...you probably can't afford it today.

    If my prediction is correct we are about(1-6 Months form now) to see a massive meltdown. The problem is I am not sure what is going to melt down. Is it the Banks? Is it the Dollar? Is it the Builders? I am just not smart enough to figure this part out.

    The point is I want to bet against something. I want to short some stocks. I want to bet against the lenders. I want to bet against the dollar. What do I bet against?

    Does anyone have any ideas towards this? There are some smart people on this board and I would love to figure out what I bet against. Hell I could easily be wrong on my prediction. I have made 99% of my income the last 4 years from real estate. I study MLS every day looking for deals. I have never seen this few of foreclosures on the market. I have never seen anything like this as far as inventory goes. IT just doesn't add up. I could very well be wrong and everyone should do their own DD. I am willing to take a chance though that I am correct and want to figure out how the hell do I bet against it?

    Anyone?
     
  2. pakelika10

    pakelika10 Registered Member

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    the us dollar is going to be gone in the next few years, they are getting rid of it, invest in gold or property.
     
  3. oxonbeef

    oxonbeef BANNED BANNED

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    Invest in munitions and defence they'll be buying like crazy to quell all the civil disorder.
     
  4. DrJekyll

    DrJekyll Senior Member Premium Member

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    You can not keep forclosing on everything, you will end up with no income coming in,. It is easier to refinance it and keep money coming in. Keep your customers with you and try to get payments coming even if late.

    so if anything I would say a major refinancing will be coming and even less properties on the market.

    this is pure uneducated speculation
     
  5. StonedTitan

    StonedTitan Junior Member

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    well im not so sure on finding ways to bet against the system. The stock market is more of a way to bet on things going up and the best way to bet against it would be to save your money or diversify it. Aka get your bank accounts into cash and buy gold lol.
     
  6. NetZen

    NetZen Newbie

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    Invest in Gold and Lead ;)
     
  7. linkownsyou

    linkownsyou Newbie

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    Part of the reason the foreclosures is down is because banks aren't lending and when they do lend it is to people in the top tier brackets as far as credit is concerned. So you no longer have Janitors and Mcdonalds employees get mortgages on homes they could never afford.

    I would avoid betting against any company with the government in their pocket.

    There is plenty of regional banks that are struggling right now. I would look into and research some of them. They aren't getting the assistance from the government the big name banks are and last time I checked there was like 80 this year that went under. Also look into discretionary spending companies, when times are tough people stop spending on things they don't absolutely need.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2009
  8. sdtopensied

    sdtopensied Regular Member

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    I think you're probably right with regard to your refinance predictions. The logical consequence of this is the return of easy credit, but not quite as easy as before.

    I don't buy the doom and gloom about the total collapse of the dollar. The U.S. has the largest consumer economy in the world, although that's going to change in the relatively near future. China, our biggest trading partner, doesn't have a replacement for the U.S., nor does any other country that depends on U.S. trade and consumption. At the moment, too many countries' fates are tied to the success or failure of the U.S. economy.

    -SDT

     
  9. 2Cent

    2Cent Junior Member

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    Mankind has always turned to gold....Now may be a bit late to buy in ...but as soon as the prices taper off a bit ...dig in
     
  10. undeterminederror

    undeterminederror BANNED BANNED

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    the only logical move is to invest all you have in hooker and pot.
     
  11. arnx

    arnx Newbie

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    my .01 cents..hedge your dollars before it is devalued...by

    1. investing in gold and silver, and stocks of mining companies
    2. investing in other currencies with high interests (Australian dollar is now good! And some asean currencies that offer attractive interest rates).