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Goole Keyword Tool Search Figures are Rubbish

Discussion in 'Black Hat SEO' started by Scritty, Feb 15, 2011.

  1. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    Some of you know this, others may find out the hard way.

    Those that read mny posts know that I had a few hundred micro sites back in 2009 (i'm now a 15 mini site person)

    Anyway - Google closed 2 adsense accounts and played silly buggers with the sites. I had made a lot of cash on them, and was bored and a little concerned about doing it that way anyway - so moved on.

    Anywho. Noticed that a few dozen of my sites are now ranking page 1 again. Nice. I've monetized a few with CJ and stuff.

    The sites are exact match keywords with exact match blog titles blah blah. I decided to check the raw visitor stats thorugh various systems (server, plugins. AWSTATS etc) and got a pretty good idea of how many uniques they are getting a day.

    Now - I've checked 5 sites that are number 1 local and top 3 Europe and USA to see where I am with visitors.

    Let me tell you - it's NO WHERE NEAR what Google says.

    Keyword 1 - Spot 1 UK, Spot 2 USA. 8200 searches a month UK.
    Expected visitors to a number 1 site for this term is roughly 45% of the total search term.

    I'm a realist - I think ballpark. Anywhere from 30%-60% of the 8200 local searches and i'm "meh..ok fair enough"

    What is the total for January? (it was in number 1 local and number 2 for most international searches for the entire month)

    72...

    Total

    For an exact match .com domain at number 1 for the exact search term that Google says has 8200 a month.

    And that's not even counting the 22,000 others in the worldwide search - I'm assuming xero there (though Statpress tells me I have 1 visitor from Estonia..nice)

    That's about 0.3% of just the local amount.


    But it works the other way as well.

    Term 2. Was a popular product a couple of years back (tech related) not aware that anyine buys/needs it any more'

    Google says there are 250 local searches and under 2000 a month worldwide.

    Guess what.

    Googles referring between 500 and 700 a day to my site for this. Got just shy of 20,000 uniques in January.

    It's a flipping .info as well (number 1 UK number 3 for USA).

    Sure a few of the figures were quite close, but overall the keyword tool is massively out of whack.

    Use another tool? Yeah maybe.

    What concerns me is that MNF and MS use Googles own data to make their predictions. Gotta wonder what value there is when they are relying on such a flaky premis.

    Scritty
     
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  2. redstone.1337

    redstone.1337 BANNED BANNED Jr. VIP Premium Member

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    So, its a luck's game now? :eek:
     
  3. squark

    squark Junior Member

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    Keyword tool is famously inaccurate. No surprise there.

    Remember also that the data it serves is several months in arrears. So not only are they often overly optimistic in their traffic estimation, but if a term is trending downwards or is seasonal you could experience dramatically different results than reported.

    Would be interesting to see what they show for your keyword in 4 months and are reporting searches from today.

    Also, for as flaky as it is (or may seem), it's also one of the few options with any real authority... especially for free. Typical Google... gotta love 'em and hate 'em at the same time.
     
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  4. fiesta

    fiesta Junior Member

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    I noticed that too with most keyword search tools
     
  5. bibirisca

    bibirisca Junior Member

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    I was having the same dilemma these days.
    I am ranking #1 for a phrase google keyword tool says it has exact 12.000 monthly searches global. Guess what: I get 900-1000 unique visitors daily, all organic all from fucking G.
     
  6. heatley

    heatley Newbie

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    Try keyword discovery or word tracker.
     
  7. 618SR

    618SR Newbie

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    So what are people meant to use? With everyplace showing different results can you trust any of the results you see or just hope for the best and waste a lot of time.

    Like Example MNF showed 700/Month for a certain keyword google shows 12K/Month. Like wtf thats not a small difference.
     
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  8. croangler

    croangler Registered Member

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    yea that is crap, i am havinf the same problem, i am no 1 with a 60k/month keyword i dont get even a third the impressions on the webmaster tools.

    i think that google is taking every search result that relates to a specific term and putting it together to achieve these numbers
     
  9. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    My thinking here is...

    "Suprise - Google sell adsense -> One of the axioms for choosing adsense keywords is traffic -> Google massively overestimates traffic"

    What a surprise!

    Like a TV company trying to sell ad space during "Lunchtime with God" and claiming it gets 8 million viewers when in fact it get 250,000.

    Still doesn't explain why I still get massive views for (i'll come clean)
    "720i flat screen" TV's
    I mean who the hell is interested in them these days. Not even real 720 - but 720 interlaced...is there something about them I don't know? Are they fitting them in cars or something? I haven't seen one for sale for a couple of years now.

    I reviewed a couple and saw more in shops a few years back. All looked crap to me..but what do I know?

    20,000 people come to my site and 0.035% buy a TV worth over a grand sterling (not a 720 one I might add) (That's 7 in the last 2 months at 2.5% commission or about £30 ($50) each) IK Google also reckons the site has 11,000 links and is 5 years old (which it is)

    But for the life of me I don't know why so many come, and when they do come why they buy the products they do.

    IM is a bloody mystery sometimes. If I knew why I'd duplicate it like a mad'un - but I haven't got a chuffing clue.
     
  10. dpatel1357

    dpatel1357 Registered Member

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    damn thats great
     
  11. Darkone

    Darkone Junior Member

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    haha same story here, got an exact keyword domain name on #1 spot in usa, keyword supposedly gets 600k searches a month. yea i get like 30, YEA you read it right 3 0 visitors a month.
     
  12. orangeblossoms

    orangeblossoms Regular Member

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    Agree, and I've posted about this earlier. The google kw tool is horribly inaccurate.

    Keywords that bring me over 24K uniques/month show only 200/month in google kw. The difference is crazy. For these keywords though, I didn't choose them based on search volume. I picked them based on what phrases I'd use to search for a subject, so that's probably a more reliable method.

    Chances are if you're searching using those keywords, other people are also searching using the same ones.
     
  13. polocolto

    polocolto Regular Member

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    I have a site ranking first that gets 1000 visits a day for my main keyword and G tool says that there are 50 searchs only. I wonder if they do this on purpose.
     
  14. aldragon

    aldragon Power Member

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    Thats correct!
    After I started using search terms tagging 2, same thing happened to me people coming to my website massively for terms that G tool shows only a few exact searches a month. On top of that for example , keywords that are very competitive, like forex : Just imagine the amount of searches that the site owners and employes of forex companies do on the exact match. :rolleyes:
     
  15. bufunfa

    bufunfa Newbie

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    One other thing, aren't the results from the keyword tool and the traffic estimator supposed to be the same? I mean when we choose the same country and language on both? Because I've seen different values for the exact same keywords on some occasions.

    And a few hours ago I used a proxy (one browser trough the proxy and the other not) and saw also different values for estimated cpc, (don't remember if also for the search volume). So we have no reliable way of estimating more or less the traffic and the clicks?
     
  16. plex_brahial

    plex_brahial Regular Member

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    Im not always counting that if google says 20000 people searched for "how did my grany panties looked like" is alwas true- just orientative numbers.
     
  17. oinky222

    oinky222 Regular Member

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    I tried searching for that term from both the UK and the USA but didn't see any .info domains ranking for it.

    Did you say you were using "[Exact] match" search? Cause obviously "Broad match" is not going to be even remotely accurate.

    But that would only overestimate traffic, not underestimate it like with term 2. Maybe something recent happened in the media or something to make people interested in that particular type of tv?

    If the GKT really is that messed up, whats the next best alternative?
     
  18. bobbylove321

    bobbylove321 BANNED BANNED

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    Google was never accurate.

    It said my keyword got exact searches of 110,000+ per month, then when I ranked 1st position, I only got 60 visitors per day.

    Google doesn't give out real search results or even close estimates to make spammers guessing.
     
  19. Scritty

    Scritty Elite Member Premium Member

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    Yeah - It comes and goes. Was there last week. Got nothing from G this week. It'll be back.

    GKT is the best method sadly. The other methods use click analysis sites and crap like that - even more flakey.

    I was paying over $100 a month for a service that supposedly harvested several billion searches a day.

    It was worse than Google - I quit after 3 months (should have quit after 1)

    The guy above who said go for the phrase that makes sense and you want to rank for. Then as a second line of defence check GKT.

    Doing GKT first seems a cocking waste of time to me.
    Since every decent 3rd party KT uses Google though at least we are all on the same playing field.

    Scritty