Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by bk071, Jan 20, 2012.
Zuckerburg is going to be very rich by the end of this year
Deja vu.... Groupon...
so how many of those 800 million users are legit?
maybe 1-200 million? with 6-700 million bots / phony accounts?
I know right... they have no idea how much money people are making off Facebook.
I wouldn't buy facebook stock - at least not in the first few days, it will be over-inflated and unless they offer I a high-dividend (and I doubt they will offer one) then it will actually only be a room for loss rather than profit.
I think they are doing an IPO as they realize their profit is leveling off. I can't see it being a good purchase
Same story for Facebook.
Facebook is only worth "$100 billion" due to the Microsoft effect*, If you invested $1,000 in Microsoft's IPO you would have over $300,000 today if you kept it in the company,and didn't do dividend reinvestment,it would be alot higher if it was set to auto invest the dividends,but I'm not sure.
*I'm not sure if its really the cause of it,but I have seen so many reports about if you had invested in Microsoft's IPO you would have so much money today.
The question is how many Facebook users are real,active accounts. I personally have maybe 10-12 I have created and are not deleted,a few of my friends have a couple each. And I'm sure theres alot of people on BHW with 100+,and what about all the other blackhatters from DP,WF and other sites that also have hundreds each.
Take those away,then you have to look at age groups and countries the members are coming from. And then the legit info they posted. For example My niece uses FB when she isn't even old enough(I dont know why my sis lets her). And she says she is much older and graduated HS and works at some retail store.
With all that taken into consideration,if it was worth $100 billion how much money could it have to grow and how long would it take. I think ExxonMobil is largest American company with a market cap of around $400 billion. Google is a somewhat similar company and its market cap is around $160 billion. So if Facebook branched off into other industries it could grow to $400 billion,by possibly making cellphones or other types of electronics such as a Facebook TV. But then what if one of those flops and Facebook loses a few billion dollars and crash to less then $100 billion. Or it could end up with a market cap of Google size at around $160 billion even if it is successful. And what happens if Facebook is dethroned by a new site, it happened to MySpace it can happen to Facebook.
imho I think that Facebook is not a good investment long term, I would short the stock and take the earnings and invest into starting my own offline business.
VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS $$$$$$...
Fbook are saying 450 million (roundabouts form the top of my head) users that log in everyday. They are going public due to a piece of legislation that says companies of a certain size must go disclose information to (500+ investors, and some other rules about revenue etc..) "Protect shareholder"...(IPO moneies for wall street), since they have to disclose, they may aswell IPO.
Either way they are making $1bn per year profitability. and profit growth is great... doubled in the last year. they are really fighting for display ad revenue with big G (26% market share already i believe...). they have an internal motto that says "fbook is only 1% complete" so i really think they will grow (in the long run, short term long on fbook is a suckers trade)...
Anyways, here is the good bit.... Wall street are going to release too many outstanding shares and the stock will do a similar thign to GRPN. Ie every sucker and his wife (800 million users ) will buy the stock----> limited supply+ Increased demand= HIGHER PRICE.
HOWEVER.... the stock will then become overvalued, it will pop and the pros will be able to sell.....Note: they "pop" may be as soon as the ipo happens as the investment banks may do private placement deals with high net worth clients, in which case we dont need to wait for it to go up before going down... (i have a feeling it will though)
Either way... we'll will see if my predictions are right when this thing IPOS... i will certainly be putting my money in a SHORT POSITION (making money as the stock falls) soon after the IPO... maybe the same day
Nice info bk071
I don't know about something else (well, of course there's time for everything), but I do agree on that the service has been going to the wrong direction, and it'll lead to even bigger loss of userbase.
It will be interesting to see the par value of this stock. One thing for sure is that Facebook is selling the sizzle not the steak!
Facebook bigger than Disney, MacDonalds, Amazon? Sorry it doesn't make any sense to me. The revenue is almost nothing when compared with other players so all the value seems to be based on number of users. And we all know how fickle minded internet user are. News Corp bought Myspace for $500 million and then sold it for $35 million. Hope the same doesn't happen to FB.
Mark will be rich but I can't say the same for the average FB investor.
Its easier to get a higher market cap as a tech company then it is as any other industry. The media is over blowing the Facebook IPO so much, there has been millionaires created overnight with many other IPO's.
Even the information in this infographic is outdated. Estimated value of $100 billion with an opening IPO of $10 billion - well now Facebook's opening value will be $5billion thank god people are finally having hesitations. Facebook is over valued and has no room for growth and doesn't seem to offer dividends it's a TERRIBLE buy
This IPO has really nothing to do with raising money as Facebook is flush with cash for operating capital and Zuckerberg himself certainly does not need any money. This IPO is more about Zuckerberg promises being kept to the early employees of Facebook who were given company stock in return for their hard work and loyalty. This IPO will be a huge payday for them with ealry reports estimating this IPO will create over 1000 millionaires, almost instantly.
LMAO too much
thing is crazy overvalued.
yall not realizing the time and methods and even $ we spend on facebook trying to make a buck we are making facebook even richer...
Its like facebook is taking our money and giving it back to us...
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