external keyword tool

I am using the google external keyword tool.

So I enter my keywords I want to check and then where it says -
"Calculate estimates using a different maximum CPC bid: "

I enter .25 because I want to find keywords I can use to get on the first page without spending more than 25 cents per click.

So some of the words show that they should show in pos 4 - 6 which is fine, they are still on the first page. But it seems that when ever I choose a word that shows pos 4 - 6 and then use that in my campaign, adwords never shows these words on the first page results. I always see this message under my keywords:
"Bid is below first page bid estimate of $0.75 "

Am I over looking some other factors that determine the position?

I am going to try to answer my own question.

So I was confused on why the keyword tool shows a bid price that should put me on the front page but then in fact my ad ended up on page 2 or 3?

So it is the account history right? I was doing a lot of trial & error experimenting and my ctr's were not very good.

I was paying higher than the estimates that were given by the keyword tool.

So when you start a brand new account that doesn't have the bad account history, then the estimates are more accurate or I am actually charged LESS than the estimated cpc.

So I am just starting new adwords accounts with a different email address but it seems to be ok if I use the same credit card for each account.