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Daily Updated Football Predictions

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by Donnie Darko, Jun 29, 2010.

  1. Donnie Darko

    Donnie Darko Regular Member

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    So, I've been working on a football simulator for a few weeks now. It's using a giant database that has data on most leagues in the world, teams, players and players' attributes. When I say a "giant" database, I mean it.

    Anyway, lately I've been simulating World Cup games etc. and I've come to realize that my simulator is extremely accurate so far when it comes to predicting if a game is going to end "over" or "under". For those who don't know what "over" and "under" is, over means 3 or more goals total in a game, and under means 2 or less goals. So far, my simulator has been accurate 100% for 5 games (4 WC, 1 Swedish Cup game). I've only tested it for 5 games yet because I just started. My simulator's predictions were following games were "over" and they all ended "over" (mind you for all these games "over" was paying more than "under", which means these games ending as "over" was less likely):

    Germany 4:1 England
    Argentina 3:1 Mexico
    Netherlands 2:1 Slovakia
    Göteborg 3:3 Kalmar
    Brazil 3:0 Chile

    I'm not yet convinced of my simulator's abilities, obviously 5 games isn't enough and it might just be luck. However, I'm gonna keep testing it and meanwhile I'll release my predictions before games here so we can all see how it's gonna work out. I will only list bets that my simulator gives a 54% or more on.

    So here are my predictions for today:

    Paraguay - Japan: Over (60%)
    Haka - Inter Turku: Over (60%)
    Lahti - Honka: Under (68%)

    On top of these, here are some other interesting things. According to my simulator:

    Spain - Portugal: For this one, 48% Spain, %32 Portugal and 20% draw. My simulator also gave very close results regarding over-under, under was 52% while over was %48. However, the betting site I use was giving 1.35 to 1 for under whereas it was giving 2.15 to 1 for over, so %48 is pretty darn good of a risk to take.

    Lahti - Honka: Lahti is gonna win (48%) or it's gonna be a draw (40%). Honka's winning chance is only 12% (mind you they're the favorites in this game).
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2010
  2. rejv66

    rejv66 Junior Member

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    Lol 20% draw:)? There is no chance for draw.
     
  3. Donnie Darko

    Donnie Darko Regular Member

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    What do you mean there's no chance for draw? In football betting, the score after the 90 minutes is what counts (in other terms, regulation time). So if a game goes overtime, it doesn't matter.
     
  4. heavyweight

    heavyweight Junior Member Premium Member

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    Interesting. I'll keep an eye on this thread.
    The world cup has been extremely unpredictable in the early stage, now the results are more realistic.
    I agree with you 5 games are far too less. You have to run it at least on hundred games. You can also do some backtests.
    And keep in mind that there are dudes online that became filthy rich from their premium sports picks service.
     
  5. fear91

    fear91 Regular Member

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    It may be pure luck. Try to simulate matches from the past ( few hundred) to prove that this is working.
     
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  6. Donnie Darko

    Donnie Darko Regular Member

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    This is a really good idea that I haven't thought about actually. Will do this and see how it goes.
     
  7. mazgalici

    mazgalici Supreme Member

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    100 matches ago doesn't count, they aren't the same players . Sport has a lot of hazard
     
  8. Donnie Darko

    Donnie Darko Regular Member

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    I'd have to run the tests on a downdated database. Right now it's up to date for until June 12th.