Bitcoin Was Made for This Moment. So Why Isn’t It Booming?

mnrfas

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Long hailed by its advocates as a safe hedge during uncertain times, Bitcoin’s value has fallen steadily in recent weeks.
For years, Bitcoin buffs who were questioned by skeptics about the value of the cryptocurrency would respond by saying: just wait.
Wait until inflation hits, and people look to park their savings in a stable digital asset that won’t lose its value. Wait until war breaks out, and authoritarians start seizing assets and imposing capital controls on their citizens. Wait until big banks and tech companies start censoring dissidents for their political views. Then you’ll see why we need a stateless, decentralized, anonymous digital currency.
More than most cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was seen by many of its libertarian-leaning fans as a kind of doomsday insurance, a form of “digital gold” that would be a source of stability as the world grew more chaotic and unpredictable.
Well, chaos is here. In the United States, inflation is rising at the fastest pace in decades, and the VIX — the so-called fear index used by Wall Street to measure expected volatility in the stock market — has risen more than 80 percent this year. Last month, Canada’s government responded to the threat of a protest convoy of anti-vaccine truckers by threatening to freeze their bank accounts, drawing calls for a type of money that isn’t subject to government seizures. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met with brutal sanctions that have tanked the ruble and devastated the Russian economy, and many U.S. companies have pulled out of Russia, making it nearly impossible for its citizens to access their bank accounts, use credit cards or even post on social media.

In other words, this is a perfect storm of economic and geopolitical events that should, theoretically, be great for Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin hasn’t boomed. In fact, even as Wall Street analysts contemplate the possibility of nuclear Armageddon, crypto prices have fallen steadily. Bitcoin prices are down 10 percent in the past month, and Ether, the second most popular crypto coin, is down roughly 15 percent.
Day-to-day usage of cryptocurrencies isn’t picking up the way you’d expect, either. Bitcoin trading volume rose after Russia invaded Ukraine, but it has remained relatively flat since, suggesting that people aren’t rushing to trade their rubles and hryvnia (Ukraine’s currency) for digital currencies. Russian oligarchs don’t appear to be using crypto to evade sanctions en masse, either, despite initial fears that they might.
Granted, crypto has not been totally absent from these events. In Canada, some truckers raised money through crypto donations (while others had their crypto wallets seized as part of the crackdown), and Ukraine’s government has reportedly raised nearly $100 million in crypto donations. And it’s still too early to say, with certainty, that crypto won’t be useful in later stages of the Russian conflict.
But Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be playing a central role in our global unraveling so far. Which raises the obvious question: Why not?

One possibility is that crypto is still too confusing and too difficult for normal people to use, especially during a war. Internet access is spotty in many parts of Ukraine, and reports have suggested that even the country’s elites are struggling to convert their assets into crypto.
Another possibility, popular among skeptics of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, is that Bitcoin is still too volatile to be useful as a hedge against economic and political instability.

“The Bitcoin and crypto communities have been selling a false narrative all these years that Bitcoin is supposed to be a safe haven from the traditional financial markets,” said Jimmy Nguyen, the president of the Bitcoin Association, a cryptocurrency trade group. (His group promotes a Bitcoin spinoff, Bitcoin SV, that sees itself as a more useful version of the cryptocurrency.)
Bitcoin is doomed, Mr. Nguyen argues, because it can be slow and expensive to process transactions, making it less useful for paying for things. “And so a lot of Bitcoin supporters have had to come up with this argument that it’s meant to be a reserve asset,” he said.
Kevin Werbach, a professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, floated a different theory. Bitcoin’s earliest and most vocal adopters, he said, tended to be libertarians who saw cryptocurrency as a kind of insurance policy against hyperinflation and government corruption. But the more recent price swings in the crypto markets attracted a surge of speculators who viewed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies mainly as investments, and cared less about their political implications.
“There’s a tremendous amount of rhetoric around Bitcoin in particular that suggests that it’s predominantly a means of escaping from the government-issued fiat currency system,” he said. “And yet most of the activity, according to basically every rigorous study that’s been done, is predominantly people speculating.”

Russia-Ukraine War: Key Things to Know​


Card 1 of 4
On the ground. Russian forces, battered by the local resistance, have stepped up their bombardment across Ukraine, targeting locations far from the front lines. Satellite imagery of a convoy north of Kyiv suggests that Russia is repositioning its forces for a renewed assault there.
A punishing measure. In a move to escalate the economic pain on Russia, President Biden called on Congress to suspend normal trade with the country, in a coordinated move with the Group of 7 and the E.U. The change that would raise tariffs for many Russian products.
Iran nuclear deal. A European Union official said that talks on reviving the 2015 deal had paused following the invasion. Russia, a signatory to the accord, has tried to use final approval of the deal as leverage to soften sanctions imposed because of the war.
Disinformation push. Russia falsely claimed that the Pentagon was financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine — a lie repeated by Chinese diplomats. The Biden administration called out both countries, saying the United States might provide cover for a potential biological or chemical weapons attack on Ukrainians by Russia.

Another possible explanation for Bitcoin’s underperformance, which was floated by Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg, is that chaos cuts both ways, and that the same events that could be seen as “good for Bitcoin” in the short term — inflation, sanctions, geopolitical conflict — could also be bad for Bitcoin over the long term, since they could draw the attention of regulators.

“To whatever extent the Canadian trucker story would be seen as bullish for Bitcoin (because it got people thinking about ways of making payments without regulated entities) it’s also bearish for Bitcoin (because it caught the attention of state actors who wanted to push back against such payments),” he wrote.
There are other explanations out there, too. Sam Bankman-Fried, the chief executive of crypto exchange FTX, said on Twitter that while he thought Bitcoin would “do better” in a less stable political and economic environment, he guessed that the discrepancy was partially related to the media’s negative coverage of crypto.
“Headlines have been largely negative independent of actual content the last month in a reaction to statements from the industry, which I think has posed significant headwinds,” he wrote.
But perhaps the most interesting view of crypto’s usefulness during unstable times comes straight from Ukraine’s government.
On Tuesday, I posed a question about crypto to Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation. Since the Russian invasion, Mr. Bornyakov and his team — led by the country’s digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov — have been working around the clock to coordinate crypto donations for Ukraine’s army. Tens of millions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptocurrencies have been sent to these addresses, and the money has been used to buy military supplies, including bulletproof vests and night-vision goggles.
Mr. Bornyakov, who was speaking from an undisclosed location in Ukraine on a video conference hosted by the artificial intelligence company Collective, said that one advantage of using crypto to raise money was how quickly the funds could be disbursed.
“In a situation like this, where the national bank is not fully operating, crypto is helping to perform fast transfers, to make it very quick and get results almost immediately,” he said.
But Mr. Bornyakov seemed wary of overstating crypto’s importance to the Ukrainian cause.
“I don’t think crypto is playing a major part,” Mr. Bornyakov said. “But its role is essential in this conflict in terms of helping our army.”



what you guys think? there is some valid points
 

lotsofmoney

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It will take time, do not expect instant results. May be worse times are ahead and then people will understand the value of bitcoin more.
 

mnrfas

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umm.. well, now you know it’s not a safe hede. Act accordingly?
Absolutely, but i'm disappointed
It will take time, do not expect instant results. May be worse times are ahead and then people will understand the value of bitcoin more.
i think the governments will control it like fiat, by controlling trading platforms.
 
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Talbot

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Those Holder always win.

Remember, even if traders state that they are doing this job based on statistics on a chart, this is wrong.

The reason was that we were expecting all of them to turn to bitcoin due to the swift barriers to the entire russian government and the bans that made cards such as visa mc unusable. And thanks to this, we thought that ethereum and btc and other altcoins would be active. But instead of ethereum and other coins (burning) as supply, flow took place. and it's going crazy. As I said in the stock market right now, wait in HOLD. and win.
 

mnrfas

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Those Holder always win.

Remember, even if traders state that they are doing this job based on statistics on a chart, this is wrong.

The reason was that we were expecting all of them to turn to bitcoin due to the swift barriers to the entire russian government and the bans that made cards such as visa mc unusable. And thanks to this, we thought that ethereum and btc and other altcoins would be active. But instead of ethereum and other coins (burning) as supply, flow took place. and it's going crazy. As I said in the stock market right now, wait in HOLD. and win.
this not about making money by trading crypto, every one was saying this is a new system against inflation/governments and decentralized...
 

aristocratic

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The war made the people understand and trust crypto even more.

They saw how the Russian Ruble lost 60-70% of its value in no time.
They saw people in line in Russia to withdraw their own money and the government now allowing them to withdraw the amount they need.
We all saw how sanctions imposed by governments affected the normal people (Freelancers cant send/receive money because RUSSIA is banned from all world).
Russian businessmen that have nothing to do with the war got their funds frozen all around the world.

All of this would not have happened if they would use crypto.

IMO war was a good thing for crypto and soon we will see its benefits.
 

mindmaster

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Any big news had some influence on bitcoin. Even trolls like Elon.

The current situation is complex. What happens now affects economies around the world.
Also, liquidity is seen as a possible issue in the region close to US/RU. Thus, bitcoin is not seen as a good way to store value right now.

On another note, no matter how 'awesome'/ 'made for this" is bitcoin, it is more and more manipulated.
I assume we have a few more years (hopefully more) until the market becomes somewhat similar to wallstreet.
 

ExperimentalSEO

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The war made the people understand and trust crypto even more.

They saw how the Russian Ruble lost 60-70% of its value in no time.
They saw people in line in Russia to withdraw their own money and the government now allowing them to withdraw the amount they need.
We all saw how sanctions imposed by governments affected the normal people (Freelancers cant send/receive money because RUSSIA is banned from all world).
Russian businessmen that have nothing to do with the war got their funds frozen all around the world.

All of this would not have happened if they would use crypto.

IMO war was a good thing for crypto and soon we will see its benefits.

It's more of a don't invest in a sanction prone country if you are not a citizen of it. Crypto won't prevent your yacht, cars, mansions, art from being seized in a sanction prone country if you aren't a citizen.

Crypto would only help certain freelancers since many companies are going beyond the sanctions and cutting them off just because they are Russian. There's needs to be an actual good alternative to sites like YouTube that won't demonetize people in a country just because of the CEO's personal beliefs.
 

absolvo

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Long hailed by its advocates as a safe hedge during uncertain times, Bitcoin’s value has fallen steadily in recent weeks.
For years, Bitcoin buffs who were questioned by skeptics about the value of the cryptocurrency would respond by saying: just wait.
Wait until inflation hits, and people look to park their savings in a stable digital asset that won’t lose its value. Wait until war breaks out, and authoritarians start seizing assets and imposing capital controls on their citizens. Wait until big banks and tech companies start censoring dissidents for their political views. Then you’ll see why we need a stateless, decentralized, anonymous digital currency.
More than most cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was seen by many of its libertarian-leaning fans as a kind of https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-functions-as-doomsday-insurance-as-traders-mull-flash-crash-el-salvador-183237945.html, a form of “digital gold” that would be a source of stability as the world grew more chaotic and unpredictable.
Well, chaos is here. In the United States, inflation is rising at the https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/10/business/economy/inflation-expectations.html, and the VIX — the so-called fear index used by Wall Street to measure expected volatility in the stock market — has risen more than 80 percent this year. Last month, Canada’s government responded to the threat of a protest convoy of anti-vaccine truckers by threatening to https://www.businessinsider.com/trudeau-canada-freeze-bank-accounts-freedom-convoy-truckers-2022-2s, drawing calls for a type of money that isn’t subject to government seizures. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met with brutal sanctions that have tanked the ruble and devastated the Russian economy, and many U.S. companies have pulled out of Russia, making it nearly impossible for its citizens to access their bank accounts, use credit cards or even https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/technology/russia-ukraine-internet-isolation.html.

In other words, this is a perfect storm of economic and geopolitical events that should, theoretically, be great for Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin hasn’t boomed. In fact, even as Wall Street analysts https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/business/dealbook/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-invest.htmlArmageddon, crypto prices have fallen steadily. Bitcoin prices are down 10 percent in the past month, and Ether, the second most popular crypto coin, is down roughly 15 percent.
Day-to-day usage of cryptocurrencies isn’t picking up the way you’d expect, either. Bitcoin https://globalnews.ca/news/8657096/ukraine-russia-cryptocurrency-sanctions-ruble/ after Russia invaded Ukraine, but it has remained relatively flat since, suggesting that people aren’t rushing to trade their rubles and hryvnia (Ukraine’s currency) for digital currencies. Russian oligarchs https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/02/lawmakers-raise-alarm-on-crypto-for-sanctions-evasion-as-experts-cast-doubt/ to evade sanctions en masse, either, despite https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/russia-sanctions-cryptocurrency.html that they might.
Granted, crypto has not been totally absent from these events. In Canada, some truckers raised money through crypto donations (while others had their https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/protocol-fintech/canada-convoy-crypto as part of the crackdown), and Ukraine’s government has reportedly https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/03/09/ukraine-has-received-close-to-100-million-in-crypto-donations/ in crypto donations. And it’s still too early to say, with certainty, that crypto won’t be useful in later stages of the Russian conflict.
But Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be playing a central role in our global unraveling so far. Which raises the obvious question: Why not?

One possibility is that crypto is still too confusing and too difficult for normal people to use, especially during a war. Internet access https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-07/card/u-k-sees-russian-strikes-disrupting-ukraine-s-internet-access-4eJQ7fs7aAhEfb0ExBn5 in many parts of Ukraine, and reports have suggested that even the country’s elites are https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/02/23/ukraines-wealthy-finding-it-hard-to-buy-crypto-amid-geopolitical-tension/to convert their assets into crypto.
Another possibility, popular among skeptics of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, is that Bitcoin is still too volatile to be useful as a hedge against economic and political instability.

“The Bitcoin and crypto communities have been selling a false narrative all these years that Bitcoin is supposed to be a safe haven from the traditional financial markets,” said Jimmy Nguyen, the president of the Bitcoin Association, a cryptocurrency trade group. (His group promotes a Bitcoin spinoff, Bitcoin SV, that sees itself as a more useful version of the cryptocurrency.)
Bitcoin is doomed, Mr. Nguyen argues, because it can be slow and expensive to process transactions, making it less useful for paying for things. “And so a lot of Bitcoin supporters have had to come up with this argument that it’s meant to be a reserve asset,” he said.
Kevin Werbach, a professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, floated a different theory. Bitcoin’s earliest and most vocal adopters, he said, tended to be libertarians who saw cryptocurrency as a kind of insurance policy against hyperinflation and government corruption. But the more recent price swings in the crypto markets attracted a surge of speculators who viewed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies mainly as investments, and cared less about their political implications.
“There’s a tremendous amount of rhetoric around Bitcoin in particular that suggests that it’s predominantly a means of escaping from the government-issued fiat currency system,” he said. “And yet most of the activity, according to basically every rigorous study that’s been done, is predominantly people speculating.”

Russia-Ukraine War: Key Things to Know​


Card 1 of 4
On the ground. Russian forces, battered by the local resistance, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/world/europe/russia-bombards-ukrainian-cities.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc, targeting locations far from the front lines. Satellite imagery of a convoy north of Kyiv suggests that Russia is repositioning its forces for a renewed assault there.
A punishing measure. In a move to escalate the economic pain on Russia, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/business/economy/russia-trade-status-us.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc, in a coordinated move with the Group of 7 and the E.U. The change that would raise tariffs for many Russian products.
Iran nuclear deal. A European Union official said that talks on reviving the 2015 deal https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/world/europe/iran-nuclear-talks-russia.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc. Russia, a signatory to the accord, has tried to use final approval of the deal as leverage to soften sanctions imposed because of the war.
Disinformation push. Russia https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china-bioweapons.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-russia-ukraine&variant=show®ion=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_levelup_swipe_recirc in Ukraine — a lie repeated by Chinese diplomats. The Biden administration called out both countries, saying the United States might provide cover for a potential biological or chemical weapons attack on Ukrainians by Russia.

Another possible explanation for Bitcoin’s underperformance, which was floated by https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/why-isn-t-bitcoin-btc-doing-better-in-light-of-sanctions-canada-inflation, is that chaos cuts both ways, and that the same events that could be seen as “good for Bitcoin” in the short term — inflation, sanctions, geopolitical conflict — could also be bad for Bitcoin over the long term, since they could draw the attention of regulators.

“To whatever extent the Canadian trucker story would be seen as bullish for Bitcoin (because it got people thinking about ways of making payments without regulated entities) it’s also bearish for Bitcoin (because it caught the attention of state actors who wanted to push back against such payments),” he wrote.
There are other explanations out there, too. Sam Bankman-Fried, the chief executive of crypto exchange FTX, https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1501217139952427014 that while he thought Bitcoin would “do better” in a less stable political and economic environment, he guessed that the discrepancy was partially related to the media’s negative coverage of crypto.
“Headlines have been largely negative independent of actual content the last month in a reaction to statements from the industry, which I think has posed significant headwinds,” he wrote.
But perhaps the most interesting view of crypto’s usefulness during unstable times comes straight from Ukraine’s government.
On Tuesday, I posed a question about crypto to Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation. Since the Russian invasion, Mr. Bornyakov and his team — led by the country’s digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov — have been working around the clock to coordinate crypto donations for Ukraine’s army. Tens of millions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptocurrencies have been sent to these addresses, and the money has been used to buy military supplies, including https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/03/07/ukraine-is-buying-bulletproof-vests-and-night-vision-goggles-using-crypto/.
Mr. Bornyakov, who was speaking from an undisclosed location in Ukraine on a video conference hosted by the artificial intelligence company Collective, said that one advantage of using crypto to raise money was how quickly the funds could be disbursed.
“In a situation like this, where the national bank is not fully operating, crypto is helping to perform fast transfers, to make it very quick and get results almost immediately,” he said.
But Mr. Bornyakov seemed wary of overstating crypto’s importance to the Ukrainian cause.
“I don’t think crypto is playing a major part,” Mr. Bornyakov said. “But its role is essential in this conflict in terms of helping our army.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/technology/bitcoin-ukraine-russia-roose.html
what you guys think? there is some valid points
well tether isnt printing billions :(
thats the reason
 

adornoad

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I had explained my point of view about the same over here :-
You are correct from the technical point of view. However , do not forget that Bitcoin is always played & swayed by big big whales also , whereby these big whales can and have been manipulating Bitcoin price and trust me the big whales make multimillion dollars profits everyday. These big whales are in cohort with the main exchanges like Binance, etc , as when leveraged trades are liquidated , the exchnages make a lot of more money. And Tether " prints " trillions of USDT very often - you know who they sell these USDT to at a discounted price ? To the big whales and the big exchanges ( because it is anyways printed out of thin air ) and that nonstop influx of deeply discounted USDT is used to play & sway Bitcoin prices as per the whales in cohort with the exchanges need to do to pump up or pump down Bitcoin price to liquidate leveraged long and short positions on an ongoing basis.
People trading crypto , Bitcoin do not know the real scene behind the curtains and they see technicals (charts) and fundamentals (market related news) only.
The day they realize the truth I mentioned above - they will know why most ( 90 % ) of crypto traders do not overall make profits.
Those who buy and hold gems in crypto , make the profits.
So , please understand , price of Bitcoin does not depend on any technicals or any fundamentals - price of Bitcoin is in the hands of the big whales. Due to certain major aspects of decentralization in Bitcoin , the big whales are easily manipulating it's price.
 
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Conjecting

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Nobody here has a crystal ball, so take this with a grain of salt... But my guess is it has to due with the looming stock market recession. The bubble has been growing for years now - everything is inflated, we've been printing money like it's nothing and hedge funds that know they are doomed are slowly liquidating their crypto positions... Perhaps to prolong things before shit hits the fan, but it's inevitable.

Bitcoin will recover because unlike the US dollar, there is a limited supply and there will always be only 21 million Bitcoins in circulation. Billionaire Tim Draper still believes it'll hit $250k before the end of this year, which IMO seems plausible if we see a 2022 crash. Just hold your nuts.
 

davids355

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It’s safe from inflation and that sort of stuff but I don’t think it’s safe against uncertainty is it? I think I’m these times gold and silver are going to trump everything else?

Anyway, if you’re in a position to, and you believe in crypto, bows the time to stock up imho.
 

Talbot

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It’s safe from inflation and that sort of stuff but I don’t think it’s safe against uncertainty is it? I think I’m these times gold and silver are going to trump everything else?

Anyway, if you’re in a position to, and you believe in crypto, bows the time to stock up imho.
Maybe one day my grandchildren will see these messages.

But I would like to inform you that Elon continues his work on Mars and will establish life there. It is not tiring to carry internet satellites there. gold or silver is immovable. And one day everything will be electronic. and bitcoin will be the currency of the world (the new world) 100 years ago, we did not think that technology would develop this much. 1000 times more developed than we thought, sports cars are in the example. We are glad we found the match, but we found the lighter, I don't know where the electric heaters will go after we find the lighter, but I think the coins should rise by reacting against the stock markets in case of any war. Because many countries can stop the funds in case of war. and people will want to move to a decentralized system where they will never lose their money, to a place where they can only manage. For example, as in Russia.

If eth and btc make the current idle volume born, eth and btc will exceed million dollars anyway, I think I have saved enough digital currency for my grandchildren :)
 

MisterF

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Nobody here has a crystal ball, so take this with a grain of salt... But my guess is it has to due with the looming stock market recession. The bubble has been growing for years now - everything is inflated, we've been printing money like it's nothing and hedge funds that know they are doomed are slowly liquidating their crypto positions... Perhaps to prolong things before shit hits the fan, but it's inevitable.

Bitcoin will recover because unlike the US dollar, there is a limited supply and there will always be only 21 million Bitcoins in circulation. Billionaire Tim Draper still believes it'll hit $250k before the end of this year, which IMO seems plausible if we see a 2022 crash. Just hold your nuts.

I think that people will hunker down with precious metals and diamonds etc, if they wanted security.
 

aristocratic

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It's more of a don't invest in a sanction prone country if you are not a citizen of it. Crypto won't prevent your yacht, cars, mansions, art from being seized in a sanction prone country if you aren't a citizen.

Crypto would only help certain freelancers since many companies are going beyond the sanctions and cutting them off just because they are Russian. There's needs to be an actual good alternative to sites like YouTube that won't demonetize people in a country just because of the CEO's personal beliefs.

But would have saved the $400b that were frozen from Russian Oligarchs!
 

Conjecting

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I think that people will hunker down with precious metals and diamonds etc, if they wanted security.
100%. It's gonna be ugly. 401K's down the drain, housing market collapse, unemployment, etc.. but those who are prepared will be okay.
 

MisterF

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100%. It's gonna be ugly. 401K's down the drain, housing market collapse, unemployment, etc.. but those who are prepared will be okay.

Now is the time to look too at safe stocks and shares.
 
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