I would definitely agree with you, but Google in 2020 is more like a box of pralines, you never know whats inside.
As long as my niche (and many others I saw) is flooded with high authority profile pages, Pinterest and other high DA pages on page 1, I don't have any expectation.
That's different. With some keywords google likes to rank certain types of web 2's. You need to match type of page you create with what's on page 1.
I was always the guy who believed in quality, wrote superb content by myself, got natural links (as you wrote above), but unfortunately it doesn't matter how good your content is. It only matters how old/how much authority your website/domain got.
Superb content won't rank you. Superb content makes it easier for you to buy guest posts from real sites. Nothing more.
When I say natural links I don't mean weak links, or links you pick up naturally. I mean links from real sites that have real content and have TOPICAL AUTHORITY(This is a key term).
If you get a link from.. Here I'll give you an example of a spammy guest post site.
https://www.selfgrowth.com/ - 18k traffic, DR 79, 2 mil backlinks from 30k RDs. This is trash and has no topical authority and no juice.
https://realtytimes.com/ - 12k traffic, 3 mil backlinks from 14k RDs. Same deal.
There's endless sites like this. These are actually the bigger meatier ones. Still absolute crap.
What does realitytimes rank for?
It's biggest page 1 keywords are
"what is a villa" position 10
"termite bond" position 8
"scooter tricks" - position 7
Trash. It has no topical authority. Google just sees it as a collection of rubbish. It has 28,600 indexed pages, but only 2k keywords on page 1.
No juice flows between the pages.
Why?
Because it isn't a real site that's setup properly. It doesn't have internal links.
It doesn't have any sort of structure.
You also pass juice internally through relevance, so if you have a site with a whole mix of unrelated crap, you don't send juice throughout your site.
This results in just a big useless mess.
If you had a homepage link on it, then it would in fact be fairly strong, because you are just directly tapping into the juice, and the most natural links are actually to the homepage. The inner links are mostly people that create their own seo posts then spam them. Like realtytimes.com/advicefromtheexpert/item/1022679-credit-card-generator-for-educational-purposes. Look at the links to that page in ahrefs.
The problem is, ahrefs and these other tools are WAY off the mark when it comes to understanding how links work.
There is no "domain authority". Google operates on pages. It classifies pages into topics and keywords which it has a big database of how they all relate. Juice flows based on relevance.
If you have a site about payday loans and you want juice to flow from a site about gaming, then you need an article on there that connects loans and games. If you have an article that's just loan based, it won't get any juice from the other pages on that site. So if you have somegamessite.com that's a DR90, and you stick "Top 5 Payday Loans" on there, it's not going to get juice from the other pages on the site, because they're topically related to gaming.
So you need to have some sort of news piece like "22 Year Old California Student Spends $4873 on HayDay"
Then you have an article that has *keywords* that are topically connected to gaming, debt, finance, spending, money. Juice will flow from other pages on the site, and juice will flow from that page, to your payday loan page.
This is what I mean when I talk about "natural".
This is why ahrefs, moz and majestic are so inaccurate. They have no understanding of this. The way these tools calculate power is by number of incoming and outgoing links. Google doesn't calculate power like this. None of them are taking relevance into consideration. And it's not "relevance" the way most people think. Most people think a relevant link is getting a link from a site that's in the same niche. That would NOT be a practical way for google to rank sites. It's too constricted and it "segments" off the web. It's also not realistic. It's PERFECTLY natural for a gaming site to talk about finance/loans/debt as it relates to gaming. EVERYTHING is connected. The problem is when you just plant some finance topic on a gaming site. Or an article about plumbing on a self-help site, where there's no topical bridge.