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100% a winner or is it ??

Discussion in 'BlackHat Lounge' started by ying-yang, Sep 20, 2010.

  1. ying-yang

    ying-yang BANNED BANNED

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    please humour me .....

    if yes IF , i had a programe where i can predict the outcome of a sports event..

    eg .. MAN A , plays MAN B , and the % of a WIN would be X % ???


    how could i profit from that.... besides puting my own bets on.

    1. selling online bets ?
    2. open a bookies . ?

    pls. give me your ideas , thanks. PLEASE dont be the obvious one and , " no such thing as 100% bet, " or " there is no programe " i aks u to humour me , mean let me imagine i have that programe , and im asking your advice, lol..
     
  2. raygun3001

    raygun3001 Regular Member

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    First, if you have this, don't show anyone how it works ;)

    If you had a program that could predict the probable outcome of sporting events more accurately than random chance, that could be worth an enormous amount of money. How much money depends on how accurate it is i.e. does it predict a win 55% of the time or 65% of the time?

    What would you do with it?

    Sell a service to bookmakers so that they can more accuraty predict the odds.
    Go to Dubai or Russia and hook up with some billionaires who love to gamble.
    If you are more accurate at predicting, then you could set up your own online betting shop and offer better odds than the competitors.

    If you did have this I would do a "double blind test" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_experiment with a bookmaker - that would go something like this...

    They give you a list of the days football games but don't give you the names of the teams, instead they give you a number that correlates to each team (that only they know) i.e. "Raider v Broncos" is "Team 7 v Team 14". If you can predict more accurately than chance and their experts over a period of weekends then you have (to some extent) your scientific proof.
     
  3. HoNeYBiRD

    HoNeYBiRD Jr. VIP Jr. VIP

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    if you would have a program like this, then you still have nothing, because if it could work at all, it only could work on an ideal planet between laboratory circumstances

    you'll have better results if you can get close to Russian underground betting syndicates ;)
     
  4. millhugz

    millhugz Regular Member

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    no such thing as 100% bet, there is no programe
     
  5. ying-yang

    ying-yang BANNED BANNED

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    well like i say , it gives me a % , as in the probability of a win is X%.

    i dont own it , but i partner the guy who does and we have shown other people it, and a friend who is a gambling pro. on horses, he said FU*K, how the hell did u make that.

    so the result is not how many % i can offer a win, cos it is a win every time, cos it only tells the % i could win like , 0.2% of the amount i placed on originally. and its live betting. so for any prospective buyer , i can go head to head yes, on specific games i choose and win , b4 the result is known.
     
  6. ying-yang

    ying-yang BANNED BANNED

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    ALWAYS ONE ISNT THERE..... read the thread.
    and yes ur right, no sure things as 100% , the programe finds the bet it can win, and predicts a % of the win not a hgih % but a win never the less, and like someone said, a millionair could bet high enough to make that 0.001% win , a massive amount.

    BUT PLS. read the thread b4 u post comments on it.

    i name u " the 1st dick " of this thread , for stating the obvious.
     
  7. someguy

    someguy Registered Member

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    Hey ying-yang,

    I do not know about such program, but I think that gaining insights on it may be very interesting and may lead to other insights. I would start manually.

    1. Open an excel spreadsheet and start writing down data of maybe 50 games per team. You will find most statistics online and for free.
    2. After data collection, analyse the data. What are the factors, which tend to influence the outcome of a game? Is it the players? Is it the results before that? Is it the home-stadium? ...
    3. Build a formula with that. Give each factor some strengh, like home-stadium= +10% chance of winning etc. Most certainly, most people fail here as they do not find factors, do not have enough data, or do not know how to extract causal conditions out of correlating data-sets. Learn basic statistics.
    4. Test your formula on futere games with virtual bets (no real money, just look, what you would have won). A good formula will not help you win every game. It will be a formula, which helps you in making a positive amount of money every month.
    5. Tweak your formula and start betting very low amounts of money.
    6. Get insights on how betting works. Which companies are trustworthy, what are the limitations, what are the fees. Integrate this data on your excel spreadsheet.
    7. Set yourself limitations (max loss, max bets, max amounts of game). Start betting higher amounts.
    8. Stop, if it did not work out.

    Building an app out of this is just some programming labour, which you can let somebody do for some money. But the most important stuff is getting a good algorithm, as described above. If you let somebody build a programm, remember to integrate flexibility, that you can always tweak / edit formulas and factors.

    Good look and do not spend money, on which you depend! :)
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2010
  8. hitman247

    hitman247 Executive VIP Premium Member

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    ^^ This ^^

    I have a few friends that are professional sports bettors and they have programs that take all of the variables of a sporting event (weather, type of field, location, time of day, history against opponent etc) and make bets on what the programs recommends. They make a very good living doing so.
     
  9. ying-yang

    ying-yang BANNED BANNED

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    nothing to do with weather or climate or condions, just it only gives me the winning or profitable outsomes , even if the outcome is $0.000001 it is a win.