I agree with RoyRoyan and angelinmylov3 on this one. The public lists were the first thing I stopped using, because most of the sites on them were already selling to everyone and the posts looked the same.
What has worked better for me is starting from sites that already rank for terms close to the topic, then checking them the way Sarah described. I look at whether recent posts are actually indexed, whether organic traffic has held steady over the last few months, and how many outbound links the recent guest posts carry. If a site has steady traffic but every recent post links out to unrelated pages, I pass on it.
I also pay attention to whether the site still publishes for its own readers. If the newest posts get no comments, no shares, and no real discussion, the link might still count, but it rarely brings any referral visits. A smaller site in the right niche that still gets real readers has been more useful for me than a larger site with stronger metrics and no engagement.
For outreach, I try to pitch a topic that fits what the site already covers instead of sending the same idea everywhere. It takes longer, but the acceptance rate is better and the placement usually looks more natural.