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BANNED - Discussion of Prohibited Activities
- Jul 18, 2022
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This is one of parts of the E-book that i am writing about making money on sports betting, i just wanted to paste this section here for fun to see how bookies are making profit 
PROBABILITY
Here you can see how the probability of certain outcomes is calculated from betting odds. We will show it on the example of a football match.
1st step: -calculation of profit indicators
The profit indicator shows how much the bookmaker earns every time it pays out 10 dollars.
example:
1 Lens 2.70
X draw 2.90
2 Parma 2.50
Profit indicator = 1/2.70 +1/2.90 + 1/2.50 = 0.3704 +0.3448 +0.4 = 1.115
In this case, the bookmaker earns $11.15. for every $10 you pay out (of course, in case of an even schedule of payments).
2nd step: -calculation of the payout percentage
If the bookmaker receives bets in the correct ratio, then the percentage of payout to the players will be
Payout % = 100% x 1/profit indicator
example:
Payout % = 100% x 1/1.115= 89.69%
3rd step: - calculation of the probability of the outcome
In the last step, the bookmaker's price for each of the three possible outcomes should be multiplied by the payout percentage. That eliminates part of the price, which is the bookmaker's profit, and leaves an element of probability.
probability(1) = (1/coef. (1)) x payout %
probability(X) = (1/coef. (X)) x % payout
probability(2) = (1/coef.(2)) x % payout
example:
probability(1 - Lenses): 0.3704 x 89.69% = 33.22%
probability(X - draw): 0.3448 x 89.69% = 30.92%
probability(2 - Parma): 0.4 x 89.69% = 35.87%
total: 100.00%
This calculation shows how to calculate the probability from the odds obtained in the bookmaker. Of course, that probability doesn't have to be exact. When you calculate a different probability, then you have a good chance to put your money in the bet.
PROBABILITY
Here you can see how the probability of certain outcomes is calculated from betting odds. We will show it on the example of a football match.
1st step: -calculation of profit indicators
The profit indicator shows how much the bookmaker earns every time it pays out 10 dollars.
example:
1 Lens 2.70
X draw 2.90
2 Parma 2.50
Profit indicator = 1/2.70 +1/2.90 + 1/2.50 = 0.3704 +0.3448 +0.4 = 1.115
In this case, the bookmaker earns $11.15. for every $10 you pay out (of course, in case of an even schedule of payments).
2nd step: -calculation of the payout percentage
If the bookmaker receives bets in the correct ratio, then the percentage of payout to the players will be
Payout % = 100% x 1/profit indicator
example:
Payout % = 100% x 1/1.115= 89.69%
3rd step: - calculation of the probability of the outcome
In the last step, the bookmaker's price for each of the three possible outcomes should be multiplied by the payout percentage. That eliminates part of the price, which is the bookmaker's profit, and leaves an element of probability.
probability(1) = (1/coef. (1)) x payout %
probability(X) = (1/coef. (X)) x % payout
probability(2) = (1/coef.(2)) x % payout
example:
probability(1 - Lenses): 0.3704 x 89.69% = 33.22%
probability(X - draw): 0.3448 x 89.69% = 30.92%
probability(2 - Parma): 0.4 x 89.69% = 35.87%
total: 100.00%
This calculation shows how to calculate the probability from the odds obtained in the bookmaker. Of course, that probability doesn't have to be exact. When you calculate a different probability, then you have a good chance to put your money in the bet.
