Organic reach feels like a moving target these days

Exactly this is the common problem these days faced by many creators especially with short form content. Creators are confused due to changing tactics with fundamental changing, the strategy worked 2 month ago for growth may be died now or shifted to new one. The platform also do changes that how different signals are weighted. Shorts are best because they delivered quickly and audience do not lose interest. The videos length doesn't matter much the matter is to hold the audience so you should work on the opening on the content to make it engaging and the end should create satisfaction for the viewer.

Algorithms will always change, so what seems to work better long term is testing different formats regularly and paying attention to your own audience instead of blindly following every new trend.