100% correct and more people need to know this.
DR OR DA is an Ahrefs and MOZ number respectively. Google has never used them, referenced it, or confirmed it means anything to their algorithm. It is Ahrefs and Moz own crawl data and their internal scoring formula. That's it.
It's easy to screenshot and quotes and sell. "DR 70 link" looks impressive in a delivery report. Clients understand a number. They don't understand topical relevance or traffic quality. So the industry built a culture around a metric that was never Google's metric to begin with.
What Google actually cares about
Whether the linking page has real organic traffic. A DR 20 site getting 5000 monthly visitors from genuine search is a better link than a DR 60 site with zero organic traffic and 200 referring domains.
one more point, relevancy matters.
Ahrefs and Semrush traffic estimates are exactly that. Estimates. They take the keywords a site ranks for, multiply by their own CTR model assumptions, and produce a number. They have no access to the site's actual Google Analytics. they don't see real click data. It's a calculated guess based on their keyword database and search volume figures, which are themselves estimates.
So yes. Trusting Ahrefs traffic as "real traffic" has the same problem as trusting DR. It's a third party metric built on assumptions, not ground truth.
The only sources of real traffic data are:
The site owner's own Google Analytics or GSC. That's it. Everything else is modelled.
So what actually works? Check if the site ranks for real queries in your niche. Open Google, search a relevant keyword, see if the site shows up. Check if pages get indexed quickly. Check if the content looks written for a real audience. Five minutes of manual judgment beats any tool score.