Kike Hernandez
Newbie
- Mar 30, 2026
- 18
- 6
Running MVAS in TH/MY/ID/PL/TR for about 9 months now. Something I’ve noticed that nobody seems to talk about: the lifecycle of a good traffic source is way shorter than you’d expect.
Here’s the pattern I’ve seen repeatedly.
The honeymoon phase (weeks 1-2):
Find a new source. Small test budget. Approval rate is 88-92%. CR is solid. You think you’ve found something special.
Scale it carefully. $50/day → $100/day → $200/day. Everything holds. You’re making money. Life is good.
The degradation phase (weeks 3-4):
Approval rate starts slipping. 90% → 85% → 80%. You tell yourself it’s variance. Keep running.
CR stays roughly the same so it looks okay on the surface. But your real conversions (approved, paid) are dropping.
By week 4 you’re at 75% approval rate. Still profitable but barely. You cut it back to $100/day and start looking for the next source.
What I think is actually happening:
Carrier billing conversion depends on a very specific user profile. Within any app or DSP source, the pool of users who are:
When you first start running a source, you’re getting the cream of that pool. The users who convert easily.
As you scale and the source tries to fill your budget, they start serving you progressively lower-quality users from that pool. Users who are borderline on one or more of those criteria.
The clicks keep coming. The CR stays roughly the same. But the approval rate drops because more users fail at the billing step.
Why this matters more in MVAS than other verticals:
In most CPA verticals, a user either converts or doesn’t. The quality is binary.
In MVAS, a user can “convert” (trigger the tracking pixel) but not actually complete the billing flow. So you get false positives in your data. CR looks good. Revenue doesn’t match.
What I’ve tried that didn’t work:
1. Source rotation as a strategy, not a reaction
I now plan for 3-4 week source lifecycles from the start. Instead of trying to keep one source alive forever, I maintain a portfolio of 6-8 sources and rotate spend based on where each one is in its lifecycle.
2. Harder daily caps, earlier
Used to scale sources to $300-400/day. Now I cap most at $150-200/day max. Forces the source to give me their best inventory instead of scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill a big budget.
3. Approval rate as the primary kill switch
I used to make scaling decisions based on CR and ROI. Now approval rate is the first thing I check. Anything below 82% gets flagged. Below 78% gets paused regardless of other metrics.
4. Aggressive source prospecting
I’m always testing new sources. Always. Even when current sources are performing well. Because I know they won’t last.
My current pipeline: 2-3 new sources in test phase at any given time. About 1 in 4 makes it to active rotation.
The math that changed how I think about this:
Source A: $200/day, 12% CR, 75% approval = 18 real conversions/day
Source B: $100/day, 9% CR, 90% approval = 16.2 real conversions/day
Source B delivers almost the same real volume at half the spend and lower risk. I’d rather run two Source Bs than one Source A.
Current situation:
Running this portfolio approach across 5 GEOs. 7 active sources right now, average age 2.3 weeks. Approval rates ranging from 84-91%.
Always looking to add quality in-app and DSP sources to the rotation. If you’re running traffic in TH/MY/ID/PL/TR and want to compare notes on what’s holding quality, I’m interested in the conversation.
Not here to pitch anything. Just think people running the same markets should share what they’re seeing.
Here’s the pattern I’ve seen repeatedly.
The honeymoon phase (weeks 1-2):
Find a new source. Small test budget. Approval rate is 88-92%. CR is solid. You think you’ve found something special.
Scale it carefully. $50/day → $100/day → $200/day. Everything holds. You’re making money. Life is good.
The degradation phase (weeks 3-4):
Approval rate starts slipping. 90% → 85% → 80%. You tell yourself it’s variance. Keep running.
CR stays roughly the same so it looks okay on the surface. But your real conversions (approved, paid) are dropping.
By week 4 you’re at 75% approval rate. Still profitable but barely. You cut it back to $100/day and start looking for the next source.
What I think is actually happening:
Carrier billing conversion depends on a very specific user profile. Within any app or DSP source, the pool of users who are:
- On mobile data (not WiFi)
- On a compatible carrier
- Have sufficient prepaid balance
- In the right mindset to complete a subscription flow
When you first start running a source, you’re getting the cream of that pool. The users who convert easily.
As you scale and the source tries to fill your budget, they start serving you progressively lower-quality users from that pool. Users who are borderline on one or more of those criteria.
The clicks keep coming. The CR stays roughly the same. But the approval rate drops because more users fail at the billing step.
Why this matters more in MVAS than other verticals:
In most CPA verticals, a user either converts or doesn’t. The quality is binary.
In MVAS, a user can “convert” (trigger the tracking pixel) but not actually complete the billing flow. So you get false positives in your data. CR looks good. Revenue doesn’t match.
What I’ve tried that didn’t work:
- Optimizing the landing page — helps marginally but doesn’t fix the underlying user quality issue
- Tighter targeting — sometimes helps, sometimes the source just doesn’t have enough quality inventory to fill your budget
- Negotiating with the source — they usually don’t have visibility into why approval rates drop. They see clicks and conversions same as you do.
1. Source rotation as a strategy, not a reaction
I now plan for 3-4 week source lifecycles from the start. Instead of trying to keep one source alive forever, I maintain a portfolio of 6-8 sources and rotate spend based on where each one is in its lifecycle.
2. Harder daily caps, earlier
Used to scale sources to $300-400/day. Now I cap most at $150-200/day max. Forces the source to give me their best inventory instead of scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill a big budget.
3. Approval rate as the primary kill switch
I used to make scaling decisions based on CR and ROI. Now approval rate is the first thing I check. Anything below 82% gets flagged. Below 78% gets paused regardless of other metrics.
4. Aggressive source prospecting
I’m always testing new sources. Always. Even when current sources are performing well. Because I know they won’t last.
My current pipeline: 2-3 new sources in test phase at any given time. About 1 in 4 makes it to active rotation.
The math that changed how I think about this:
Source A: $200/day, 12% CR, 75% approval = 18 real conversions/day
Source B: $100/day, 9% CR, 90% approval = 16.2 real conversions/day
Source B delivers almost the same real volume at half the spend and lower risk. I’d rather run two Source Bs than one Source A.
Current situation:
Running this portfolio approach across 5 GEOs. 7 active sources right now, average age 2.3 weeks. Approval rates ranging from 84-91%.
Always looking to add quality in-app and DSP sources to the rotation. If you’re running traffic in TH/MY/ID/PL/TR and want to compare notes on what’s holding quality, I’m interested in the conversation.
Not here to pitch anything. Just think people running the same markets should share what they’re seeing.