Kike Hernandez
Newbie
- Mar 30, 2026
- 18
- 6
Before I spend a dollar in a new GEO, I answer these 6 questions. Here’s why each one matters.
Entering a new market for MVAS without proper research is expensive. I’ve done it wrong. Here’s the process I use now.
Question 1: Who are the dominant carriers?
Carrier billing performance varies dramatically by operator. A GEO with one dominant carrier (like Thailand with AIS) is much easier to optimize than one with 5+ carriers of similar size (like Indonesia).
Concentrated market = predictable performance.
Fragmented market = higher variance, more test budget needed.
Question 2: What’s the Android/iOS split?
Carrier billing works primarily on Android. Any GEO below 65% Android is a yellow flag. I want 70%+ before I commit serious budget.
Question 3: What’s the regulatory environment?
Some markets require double opt-in. Some have subscription charge caps. Some have had recent regulatory crackdowns on carrier billing.
Find this out before you build your landing page, not after your first campaign gets flagged.
Question 4: What’s already running in this market?
Zero MVAS activity usually means the market doesn’t convert — not that it’s an untapped opportunity.
Heavy activity means it works but you’re entering a competitive market.
The sweet spot is moderate activity with room to differentiate.
Question 5: Can I find 3+ quality traffic sources?
Single-source dependency is the fastest way to lose margin in MVAS. Before entering a GEO, I confirm I can access at least 3 sources with carrier-level targeting.
If I can’t find 3, I don’t enter regardless of how good the offer looks.
Question 6: What’s my test budget?
Simple GEO (dominant carrier, clean regulatory): $300
Complex GEO (fragmented carriers, regulatory uncertainty): $500
Unknown GEO (limited data): $150, extend if promising
How my current GEOs score:
Thailand — Simple. Easiest to run. AIS dominates.
Malaysia — Moderate. e-wallet behavior adds complexity.
Indonesia — Complex. Massive volume, high variance.
Poland — Regulatory complexity. Stable once optimized.
Turkey — Moderate. Turkcell users significantly outperform.
Running all five profitably after going through this process for each one.
If you’re thinking about entering any of these markets or want to compare research notes, happy to connect.
Entering a new market for MVAS without proper research is expensive. I’ve done it wrong. Here’s the process I use now.
Question 1: Who are the dominant carriers?
Carrier billing performance varies dramatically by operator. A GEO with one dominant carrier (like Thailand with AIS) is much easier to optimize than one with 5+ carriers of similar size (like Indonesia).
Concentrated market = predictable performance.
Fragmented market = higher variance, more test budget needed.
Question 2: What’s the Android/iOS split?
Carrier billing works primarily on Android. Any GEO below 65% Android is a yellow flag. I want 70%+ before I commit serious budget.
Question 3: What’s the regulatory environment?
Some markets require double opt-in. Some have subscription charge caps. Some have had recent regulatory crackdowns on carrier billing.
Find this out before you build your landing page, not after your first campaign gets flagged.
Question 4: What’s already running in this market?
Zero MVAS activity usually means the market doesn’t convert — not that it’s an untapped opportunity.
Heavy activity means it works but you’re entering a competitive market.
The sweet spot is moderate activity with room to differentiate.
Question 5: Can I find 3+ quality traffic sources?
Single-source dependency is the fastest way to lose margin in MVAS. Before entering a GEO, I confirm I can access at least 3 sources with carrier-level targeting.
If I can’t find 3, I don’t enter regardless of how good the offer looks.
Question 6: What’s my test budget?
Simple GEO (dominant carrier, clean regulatory): $300
Complex GEO (fragmented carriers, regulatory uncertainty): $500
Unknown GEO (limited data): $150, extend if promising
How my current GEOs score:
Thailand — Simple. Easiest to run. AIS dominates.
Malaysia — Moderate. e-wallet behavior adds complexity.
Indonesia — Complex. Massive volume, high variance.
Poland — Regulatory complexity. Stable once optimized.
Turkey — Moderate. Turkcell users significantly outperform.
Running all five profitably after going through this process for each one.
If you’re thinking about entering any of these markets or want to compare research notes, happy to connect.
