BitCoin and Cryptocurrencies - Will they fail? My 3 Predictions!

[wexzone]

The system will adapt. It will be a painful experience, but eventually they will have no choice. There are examples to that on the course of history. For example, the Romans arrested and executed Christians for nearly 300 years, but failed to stop the ever expanding adoption of the new religion among the enslaved nations. At the end, the empire adapted - Christianity became a must if you wanted to have any influence in the Roman society.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Christians_in_the_Roman_Empire

As to taxation, there are alternative ways. One is voting for your preferred party with money - e.q. you give them enough money for 4 years, instead placing a vote.

I agree, with your assertion that the system will adapt, but the question is, which system? decentralized (bitcoin) systems adapt much faster than centralized (govt) ones.

So, the govt places a tax on US exchanges, and everyone starts using non US exchanges.

Look at what happened to the Roman Empire once they started adapting to Christianity...

 

[wexzone]

Although you can create a volume for plausible deniability, if the Feds want your keys/passwords then you have a choice, provide them or prison.

you can plead the 5th

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

you can plead the 5th

The courts have held that when the government already knows of the existence of specific incriminating files, compelling a suspect to produce them does not violate the Fifth Amendment's rule against self-incrimination

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_disclosure_law#United_States

 

[lancis]

I agree, with your assertion that the system will adapt, but the question is, which system? decentralized (bitcoin) systems adapt much faster than centralized (govt) ones.

So, the govt places a tax on US exchanges, and everyone starts using non US exchanges.

Look at what happened to the Roman Empire once they started adapting to Christianity...

The point is, there is certain amount of pressure under which governments yield. It took Christianity 300 years to spread because communications were slow. With today's communications changes/ideas propagate much faster.

But to answer your question... both systems will adapt. Decentralized and centralized. Placing tax on the exchange is probably a bad idea. However, there are other ideas, that at this stage look like a science fiction to 99% of the world population. New things always look like a science fiction to these 99%, thats why they are always find themselves behind.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

The point is, there is certain amount of pressure under which governments yield. It took Christianity 300 years to spread because communications were slow. With today's communications changes/ideas propagate much faster.

But to answer your question... both systems will adapt. Decentralized and centralized. Placing tax on the exchange is probably a bad idea. However, there are other ideas, that at this stage look like a science fiction to 99% of the world population. New things always look like a science fiction to these 99%, thats why they are always find themselves behind.

There is a phrase in the UK: The man on the Clapham omnibus
This is basically referring to the Average Joe.

Does the Average Joe care enough about BTC yet to stand up to Government resistance against BTC?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_Joe

 

[lancis]

There is a phrase in the UK: The man on the Clapham omnibus
This is basically referring to the Average Joe.

Does the Average Joe care enough about BTC yet to stand up to Government resistance against BTC?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_man_on_the_Clapham_omnibus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_Joe

I'm failing to attribute any positive/negative change in this world to the Average Joe. Average Joe does not influence things, he follows the crowd. And the crowd is usually led by small number of individuals who are able to sell their ideas to the Average Joe.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

I'm failing to attribute any positive/negative change in this world to the Average Joe. Average Joe does not influence things, he follows the crowd. And the crowd is usually led by small number of individuals who are able to sell their ideas to the Average Joe.

I agree with this to an extent but I see the Average Joe just accepts the staus quo and does what he is told by the Government and Media.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

I DON'T AGREE with the following but it did make me laugh:

"Once upon a time, a bunch of nerds got together and went into a basement. After a few soda pops and a quick hit from a crack pipe, one nerd stood up and said, "Fuck money. Let's make our own goddamn currency!" So off they went into their wired-up gnome holes where they made our first digital only currency: Bitcoin. Some other idiots believed bitcoins were worth spending money on, Bitcoin's value skyrocketed, and then this week someone stole 4,100 bitcoins ($1.04 million worth of Bitcoin), which seems insane until you remember that someone invented Bitcoin in the first place."

Source:http://www.vice.com/read/a-nerd-stole-bitcoins-and-rand-paul-plagiarized-wikipedia

 

[Therapy101]

Welp, just put $2000 down into Bitcoins. Let's see how it goes. Advice for anyone willing to buy BTC in the future: Don't buy anymore than you are willing to lose.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

A London Bitcoin Conference without a Huge Entrance Fee
http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/a-london-bitcoin-conference-without-a-huge-entrance-fee-19959

Other BTC News:http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin

 

[Svettod]

Hey W130SN, do you own any Bitcoin or any other cryptocoin?

A London Bitcoin Conference without a Huge Entrance Fee
http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/a-london-bitcoin-conference-without-a-huge-entrance-fee-19959

Other BTC News:http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

Hey W130SN, do you own any Bitcoin or any other cryptocoin?

Yes but only what I mined years ago.

 

[wexzone]

Does the Average Joe care enough about BTC yet to stand up to Government resistance against BTC?

2 problems with this:

1. Joe doesn't influence change, he's influenced by change. There is a huge difference.
2. Bitcoin cares about govt influence, and bitcoin has the resources and knowledge to protect itself.

 

[Wilson Grant Fisk]

2 problems with this:
1. Joe doesn't influence change, he's influenced by change. There is a huge difference.

I already said that: #230 http://www.blackhatworld.com/blackh...they-fail-my-3-predictions-6.html#post6249652

2. Bitcoin cares about govt influence, and bitcoin has the resources and knowledge to protect itself.

This is untested. It has SOME resources and SOME knowledge to protect itself.
It is undetermined, how much and if it is enough.

 

[Globalization]

I think I will stick with the old fashioned method of banking. I came to know that a guy lost over $200,000 in BC just because he forgot his password. I don't wanna be in his situation. Poor guy!

I know someone who has lost a similar amount in the same manner. The email client they used to sign up for the exchange doesnt exist and the exchange site they used doesnt exist anymore either. They bought it when it was real cheap and didnt think anything of it at the time so they didnt really lose anything

 

[Globalization]

One of the primary problem I see in BitCoins is its ability to be "created" by individuals, with enough computing power and skill.
Money can't be "created". A creation of money, by printing out money, is as always an option, but an option that will lead to total economic collapse, just look at what happens in Zimbabwe. While the government "can" make money, it's illegal for citizen to "create" money.

In BitCoins, every body can "create" money. As the number of people "creating" BitCoin grow, the value of BitCoin will surely drop, killing it.

You have it wrong. Money isnt just being "created". There is actually "work" being done, which gives bitcoin it's value.

 

[wexzone]

This is untested. It has SOME resources and SOME knowledge to protect itself.
It is undetermined, how much and if it is enough.

ok, we don't know how well it can defend itself, so let's see how well the govt is at limiting p2p tech:

internet: bigger than ever
torrent: bigger than ever
drug consumption/market: bigger than ever
pirated digital goods: bigger than ever

based on their record, I wouldn't put much faith in the govt's ability to limit decentralized tech, like bitcoin. What similar tech have they been able to regulate effectively?

and as far as bitcoin defending itself, the news that politicians can receive bitcoin contributions is a HUGE benefit for bitcoin. That will certainly increase bitcoin's influence in govt.

 

[Globalization]

With your permission I will dive into physics. Nothing can be created out of thin air. Bitcoin "creation" is an exchange of energy into another form of energy. Same happens with gold, at some point of time energy is converted into matter (which is nothing but another type of energy).

Creation of the 1st Bitcoin required a relatively small amount of energy, but the more you create, the more energy you need. At some point our ability to produce the required energy becomes limited - this is where Bitcoin starts to gain its value. It can no longer be created, only exchanged. Then we invent new technologies, and the price drops a little. However, soon enough our new technologies are no longer enough to produce the required energy, and the circle continues.

On the contrary, printing dollars becomes only cheaper as the years go by. E.q. you need to invest less energy. This is a major flaw comparing to Bitcoin.

precisely. that person had it completely wrong

 

[wexzone]

I know someone who has lost a similar amount in the same manner. The email client they used to sign up for the exchange doesnt exist and the exchange site they used doesnt exist anymore either. They bought it when it was real cheap and didnt think anything of it at the time so they didnt really lose anything

I guess no one loses fiat when they lose a wallet or safety deposit key, either.

 

[wexzone]

the concept of bitcoin defending itself is an interesting one. It's the most powerful network on the planet.

Would it be conceivable for the algorithm to be changed in a way for the network itself to actually attack/defend based on an exterior threat? like making the bitcoin network a weapon?

that would have interesting consequences.