Re: cloaking http referer concept and question
Googlebot generally doesn't send any referrers. You can check for yourself by looking for the Gbot entries in your log files. Google isn't really "surfing" your site; they strip the links out of each page and then fetch them in whatever order they see fit, so it's a bit different from someone clicking from page to page, where it is appropriate to send a referrer header.
I would combine your referrer cloaking with some other form(s) of cloaking eg. cloaking for the Googlebot user agent and IP delivery. You can the lists of Google IP block allocations from ARIN if you don't want to fork out for a paid IP list. Err on the side of caution so you don't fuck up your blog - better to lose a few clicks than to get banned.
Bear in mind that conversions will drop if you force a redirect on people when they are clicking and expecting to see something else (although you might still make more money than you're making just with ads on the blog).
"An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
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